Comprehensive Regional Goods Movement Plan and Implementation Strategy Task 10.2 Evaluation of Environmental Mitigation Strategies 0 SCAG Comprehensive Regional Goods Movement Plan and Implementation Strategy Task 10.2 Evaluation of Environmental Mitigation Strategies April 2012 Prepared for The Southern California Association of Governments Prepared by ICF International 620 Folsom Street, Suite 200 San Francisco, CA 94107 415.677.7100 blank page Evaluation of Environmental Mitigation Strategies Table of Contents 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................1 2. Truck Emissions Baseline ...........................................................................................................4 2.1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................4 2.2. Key Truck Regulations.......................................................................................................5 2.3. Baseline Truck Emissions to 2035.......................................................................................8 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 Results – South Coast Air Basin Inventory ........................................................................................................... 9 Results – SCAG Region Inventory ..................................................................................................................... 14 3. Truck Technological Strategies ................................................................................................. 17 3.1. Advanced Natural Gas Technologies ................................................................................. 17 Current Status and Market Opportunities ........................................................................................................... 17 Environmental Benefits...................................................................................................................................... 19 Costs ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 Barriers to Advancement ................................................................................................................................... 21 Potential for Advancement................................................................................................................................. 23 3.2. Hybrid Technologies ........................................................................................................ 24 Current Status and Market Opportunities ........................................................................................................... 24 Emissions Benefits ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Costs ................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Barriers to Advancement ................................................................................................................................... 28 Potential for Advancement................................................................................................................................. 28 3.3. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Technologies................................................................................ 29 Current Status and Market Opportunities ........................................................................................................... 29 Environmental Benefits...................................................................................................................................... 30 Costs ................................................................................................................................................................ 30 Barriers to Advancement ................................................................................................................................... 32 Potential for Advancement................................................................................................................................. 35 3.4. Battery Electric Technologies ........................................................................................... 36 Current Status and Market Opportunities ........................................................................................................... 36 Emissions Benefits ............................................................................................................................................ 38 Costs ................................................................................................................................................................ 39 Barriers to Advancement ................................................................................................................................... 39 Potential for Advancement................................................................................................................................. 39 3.5. Summary of Environmental Benefits and Costs ................................................................. 40 3.6. References for Section 3................................................................................................... 48 4. Railroad Emissions Baseline ..................................................................................................... 50 4.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 50 4.2. Key Locomotive Regulations............................................................................................ 50 U.S. EPA Regulations ....................................................................................................................................... 51 ARB Regulations............................................................................................................................................... 51 4.3. Locomotive Emissions Standards and Rates ...................................................................... 52 4.4. Baseline Locomotive Emissions to 2035............................................................................ 53 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................... 54 Results ............................................................................................................................................................. 56 5. Railroad Technological Strategies............................................................................................. 58 5.1. Emission Reduction Strategies – Line-haul Locomotives .................................................... 58 Strategy 1: Accelerate deployment of Tier 4 line haul locomotives by 2023 ......................................................... 58 Strategy 2: Accelerate deployment of Tier 4 line haul locomotives by 2035 ......................................................... 60 Strategy 3: Electrify the mainline railroad network by 2035 ................................................................................. 61 Evaluation of Environmental Mitigation Strategies Other line-haul locomotive emission reduction strategies .................................................................................... 64 5.2. Switcher locomotive strategies.......................................................................................... 65 Strategy 1: Replace Tier 0 and pre-Tier 0 switchers with Tier 4 Switchers ........................................................... 65 Strategy 2: Repower Tier 3 GenSet switchers with new Tier 4 nonroad engines .................................................. 66 Additional switch locomotive strategies not considered in this analysis................................................................ 67 5.3. Summary of Environmental Benefits and Costs ................................................................. 67 6. Operational and Maintenance Strategies .................................................................................. 69 Expansion of On-Dock Rail................................................................................................................................ 69 Expansion of Near-Dock Rail ............................................................................................................................. 70 Grade Separation of Rail Intersections............................................................................................................... 70 Off-Peak Delivery Program ................................................................................................................................ 71 Increased Enforcement of Anti-Idling Regulations .............................................................................................. 73 Conditional Use Permits for Warehouses ..........................................................................................................