Final Government Distribution Chapter 6: IPCC SRCCL 1 Chapter 6: Interlinkages between Desertification, Land 2 Degradation, Food Security and GHG fluxes: 3 synergies, trade-offs and Integrated Response 4 Options 5 6 Coordinating Lead Authors: Pete Smith (United Kingdom), Johnson Nkem (Cameroon), Katherine 7 Calvin (The United States of America) 8 Lead Authors: Donovan Campbell (Jamaica), Francesco Cherubini (Norway/Italy), Giacomo Grassi 9 (Italy/EU), Vladimir Korotkov (The Russian Federation), Anh Le Hoang (Viet Nam), Shuaib Lwasa 10 (Uganda), Pamela McElwee (The United States of America), Ephraim Nkonya (Tanzania), Nobuko 11 Saigusa (Japan), Jean-Francois Soussana (France), Miguel Angel Taboada (Argentina) 12 Contributing Authors: Cristina Arias-Navarro (Spain), Otavio Cavalett (Brazil), Annette Cowie 13 (Australia), Joanna House (United Kingdom), Daniel Huppmann (Austria), Jagdish Krishnaswamy 14 (India), Alexander Popp (Germany), Stephanie Roe (The Philippines/The United States of America), 15 Raphael Slade (United Kingdom), Lindsay Stringer (United Kingdom), Matteo Vizzarri (Italy) 16 Review Editors: Amjad Abdulla (Maldives), Ian Noble (Australia), Yoshiki Yamagata (Japan), Taha 17 Zatari (Saudi Arabia) 18 Chapter Scientists: Frances Manning (United Kingdom), Dorothy Nampanzira (Uganda) 19 Date of Draft: 07/08/2019 20 21 Subject to Copy-editing 6-1 Total pages: 303 Final Government Distribution Chapter 6: IPCC SRCCL 1 Table of Contents 2 Chapter 6: Interlinkages between Desertification, Land Degradation, Food Security and GHG 3 fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and Integrated Response Options ........................................................... 6-1 4 Executive summary .......................................................................................................................... 6-3 5 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 6-7 6 6.1.1 Context of this chapter ................................................................................................. 6-7 7 6.1.2 Framing social challenges and acknowledging enabling factors ................................. 6-7 8 6.1.3 Challenges and response options in current and historical interventions ................... 6-10 9 6.1.4 Challenges represented in future scenarios ................................................................ 6-18 10 6.2 Response options, co-benefits and adverse side-effects across the land challenges .......... 6-21 11 6.2.1 Integrated response options based on land management ........................................... 6-25 12 6.2.2 Integrated response options based on value chain management ................................ 6-39 13 6.2.3 Integrated response options based on risk management ............................................ 6-39 14 Cross-Chapter Box 7: Bioenergy and Bioenergy with Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 15 (BECCS) in mitigation scenarios ................................................................................................... 6-48 16 6.3 Potentials for addressing the land challenges ..................................................................... 6-51 17 6.3.1 Potential of the integrated response options for delivering mitigation ...................... 6-51 18 6.3.2 Potential of the integrated response options for delivering adaptation ...................... 6-60 19 6.3.3 Potential of the integrated response options for addressing desertification ............... 6-68 20 6.3.4 Potential of the integrated response options for addressing land degradation ........... 6-74 21 6.3.5 Potential of the integrated response options for addressing food security ................. 6-80 22 6.3.6 Summarising the potential of the integrated response options across mitigation, 23 adaptation, desertification land degradation and food security .................................................. 6-89 24 6.4 Managing interactions and interlinkages ......................................................................... 6-102 25 6.4.1 Feasibility of the integrated response options with respect to costs, barriers, saturation 26 and reversibility ....................................................................................................................... 6-102 27 6.4.2 Sensitivity of the Integrated Response Options to climate change impacts ............. 6-111 28 Cross-Chapter Box 8: Ecosystem services and Nature’s Contributions to People, and their relation 29 to the land-climate system............................................................................................................ 6-113 30 6.4.3 Impacts of integrated response options on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN 31 Sustainable Development Goals .............................................................................................. 6-117 32 6.4.4 Opportunities for implementation of Integrated Response Options ......................... 6-130 33 Cross-Chapter Box 9: Illustrative Climate and Land Pathways ................................................... 6-142 34 6.4.5 Potential Consequences of Delayed Action ............................................................. 6-147 35 Frequently Asked Questions ........................................................................................................ 6-150 36 Appendix to Chapter 6: Interlinkages between Desertification, Land Degradation, Food Security and 37 GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and Integrated Response Options .............................................. 6-152 38 Supplementary Information for Section 6.4.1 .............................................................................. 6-152 Subject to Copy-editing 6-2 Total pages: 303 Final Government Distribution Chapter 6: IPCC SRCCL 1 Supplementary Information for Section 6.4.3 .............................................................................. 6-170 2 Supplementary Information for Section 6.4.4 .............................................................................. 6-204 3 References: ....................................................................................................................................... 6-206 4 5 Executive summary 6 The land challenges, in the context of this report, are climate change mitigation, adaptation, 7 desertification, land degradation, and food security. The chapter also discusses implications for 8 Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP), including biodiversity and water, and sustainable 9 development, by assessing intersections with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The 10 chapter assesses response options that could be used to address these challenges. These response 11 options were derived from the previous chapters and fall into three broad categories (land 12 management, value chain, and risk management). 13 The land challenges faced today vary across regions; climate change will increase challenges in 14 the future, while socioeconomic development could either increase or decrease challenges (high 15 confidence). Increases in biophysical impacts from climate change can worsen desertification, land 16 degradation, and food insecurity (high confidence). Additional pressures from socioeconomic 17 development could further exacerbate these challenges; however, the effects are scenario dependent. 18 Scenarios with increases in income and reduced pressures on land can lead to reductions in food 19 insecurity; however, all assessed scenarios result in increases in water demand and water scarcity 20 (medium confidence). {6.1} 21 The applicability and efficacy of response options are region and context specific; while many 22 value chain and risk management options are potentially broadly applicable, many land 23 management options are applicable on less than 50% of the ice-free land surface (high 24 confidence). Response options are limited by land type, bioclimatic region, or local food system 25 context (high confidence). Some response options produce adverse side-effects only in certain regions 26 or contexts; for example, response options that use freshwater may have no adverse side effects in 27 regions where water is plentiful, but large adverse side effects in regions where water is scarce (high 28 confidence). Response options with biophysical climate effects (e.g., afforestation, reforestation) may 29 have different effects on local climate depending on where they are implemented (medium 30 confidence). Regions with more challenges have fewer response options available for implementation 31 (medium confidence). {6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4} 32 Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all five land challenges (high confidence). The 33 options with medium to large benefits for all challenges are increased food productivity, improved 34 cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, 35 agroforestry, improved forest management, increased soil organic carbon content, fire management 36 and reduced post-harvest losses. A further two options, dietary change and reduced food waste, have 37 no global estimates for adaptation but have medium to large benefits for all other challenges (high 38 confidence). {6.3, 6.4} -1 39 Five options have large mitigation potential (> 3 GtCO2e yr ) without adverse impacts on the 40 other challenges (high confidence). These are increased food productivity, reduced deforestation and 41 degradation, increased soil organic carbon content, fire management and reduced