Le telecomunicazioni nei Paesi in via di sviluppo: sfide e opportunità di crescita Mario Marchese Università di Genova Genova, 06/11/2015 Indice Evoluzione di Internet “Digital Divide” Nanosatelliti Benefici dell’interconnessione Telefoni mobili Case studies – Africa – Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Senegal Genova, 06/11/2015 Statistiche Statistiche di Internet (milioni di utenti) – 3,270,490,584 – 30 giugno 2015 http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm Genova, 06/11/2015 Statistiche Internet (2008) WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS Usage Internet % Population Usage Gro Population Internet Users Usage, ( % of wth World Regions ( 2008 Dec/31, Latest Penetrati Worl 2000 Est.) 2000 Data on ) d - 2008 Africa 955,206,348 4,514,400 51,065,630 5.3 % 3.5 % 1,031.2 % Asia 3,776,181,949 114,304,000 578,538,257 15.3 % 39.5 % 406.1 % Europe 800,401,065 105,096,093 384,633,765 48.1 % 26.3 % 266.0 % Middle East 197,090,443 3,284,800 41,939,200 21.3 % 2.9 % 1,176.8 % North America 337,167,248 108,096,800 248,241,969 73.6 % 17.0 % 129.6 % Latin America/Caribbean 576,091,673 18,068,919 139,009,209 24.1 % 9.5 % 669.3 % Oceania / Australia 33,981,562 7,620,480 20,204,331 59.5 % 1.4 % 165.1 % WORLD TOTAL 6,676,120,288 360,985,492 1,463,632,361 21.9 % 100.0 % 305.5 % Genova, 06/11/2015 Statistiche Internet (fine 2011) Genova, 06/11/2015 Statistiche Internet (giugno 2015) Genova, 06/11/2015 Internet per Aree Geografiche - 2008 Genova, 06/11/2015 Internet per Aree Geografiche - 2011 Genova, 06/11/2015 Internet per Aree Geografiche - 2015 Genova, 06/11/2015 Velocità di diffusione Internet - 2008 Genova, 06/11/2015 Velocità di diffusione Internet - 2011 Genova, 06/11/2015 Velocità di diffusione Internet - 2015 Genova, 06/11/2015 Internet nel Mondo (percentuali) - 2008 Genova, 06/11/2015 Internet nel Mondo (percentuali) - 2011 Genova, 06/11/2015 Internet nel Mondo (percentuali) - 2015 Genova, 06/11/2015 Evoluzione di Internet: Osservazioni Fattore negativo – Notevole “Digital Divide” Fattore positivo – Grande potenziale di Asia, Africa e America Latina dovuta al numero di persone che vivono in queste regioni – Crescita degli utenti Internet Genova, 06/11/2015 Evoluzione di Internet: Osservazioni Anche se la “penetration rate” in Asia è sotto il 40% per ora, il numero stimato di utenti Internet è superiore a 1.5 miliardi (47.8% degli utenti Internet nel mondo). Questo fatto, associato all’enorme crescita, superiore al 1000% nel periodo 2000-2015, consente di prevedere un ruolo chiave dell’Asia per il futuro. Situazione simile in Africa, che ha una “penetration rate” di circa il 27% ma una crescita 2000-2015 superiore al 6800% e una popolazione complessiva superiore al miliardo di persone Genova, 06/11/2015 “Digital divide”: Motivazioni Temporal (having time to use digital media) Material (possession and income) Mental (technical ability and motivation) Social (having a social network to assist in using digital media), Cultural (status and liking of being in the world of digital media) J. van Dijk, The Evolution of the Digital Divide, Digital Enlightenment Yearbook 2012, J. Bus et al. (Eds.), IOS Press, 2012 Genova, 06/11/2015 “Digital divide”: Motivazioni Gross domestic product – Prodotto Interno lordo Genova, 06/11/2015 “Digital divide”: Motivazioni Mancanza di infrastrutture di TLC – “One of the reasons is that a large amount of people lives in countries or in remote areas which do not have a suitable telecommunication infrastructure.” Genova, 06/11/2015 “Digital divide”: Motivazioni The costs needed to connect these areas by using cables and common infrastructures are very high, in particular if compared with economic benefits. Satellite communications constitute a strategic sector for service provision in remote and low density population areas. The challenge is if satellite technology can fill the digital divide at service cost, reliability and quality comparable to terrestrial solutions. Current satellite technologies require high costs in the construction, launch and maintenance but nanosatellites have been recently proposed as a cost-effective solution to extend the network access in rural and remote areas. S. Burleigh, ”Nanosatellites for universal network access.” Proceedings of the 2013 ACM MobiCom Workshop on Lowest Cost Denominator Networking for Universal Access (LCDNet 2013), Miami, FL, USA, September, 2013. Genova, 06/11/2015 Nanosatelliti 1-10 Kg, operano in costellazioni (formazioni, sciami) altitudine: 370 km, velocità: 7.37 km/s, periodo: 90 min/giro Genova, 06/11/2015 Nanosatelliti Genova, 06/11/2015 Benefici dell’interconnessione The economics of computer acquisition and utilization shows that computers are maximally used when systematically networked to each other, accessories, and communication facilities. The interconnection of computers, accessories, and other equipment offers enormous benefits to dispersed and disorganized use. It can be shown that connecting even two computers makes at least economic sense. Genova, 06/11/2015 Benefici dell’interconnessione A network enables us to share expensive printers, computers, Internet and other communication links, and costly application and utility software. A network also supports voice/video/fax/data communications and sharing of valuable information, hence facilitating and supplementing office/factory automation, electronic learning/commerce, teleworking, and telemedicine. Thus, a network significantly reduces wastage of paper, work time, and many other perishables/consumables. Genova, 06/11/2015 Benefici dell’interconnessione More compelling, a network stretches the life cycle of computer and accessories by enabling sharing of computational resources of powerful but outdated computers. For example, a computer that may need to be replaced after five years can now be operated for more years by using the processor and memory of new computers through time pipelining hardware and/or software such as terminal servers. IEEE Global Communications Newsletter, Computer Communications in Developing Countries By Atli L. Gebretsadik, Ethiopia Genova, 06/11/2015 Mobile phone: number of mobile phones - world- 2013 Country or Number of mobile Connections/100 Population regions phones citizens World 6,800,000,000.00 7012000000 97 Genova, 06/11/2015 Mobile phone: number of mobile phones - 2013 Number of mobile phones 1.4E+09 1.2E+09 1E+09 800000000 600000000 400000000 200000000 0 Genova, 06/11/2015 10,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 35,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 phones Mobile 0.00 Genova, 06/11/2015 Genova, Peru Malaysia Australia Taiwan Kenya phone - Venezuela Canada 2013 Romania Chile Netherlands Nepal Ethiopia : Guatemala number Sri Lanka Hong Kong Ecuador Zimbabwe Portugal Belgium Hungary United Arab Emirates Sweden Bulgaria of Israel Finland mobile Singapore Denmark Azerbaijan Panama Jordan Lithuania New Zealand Mongolia Lebanon Estonia North Korea Cuba Malta Mobile phone: penetration rate - 2013 Connections/100 citizens 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Genova, 06/11/2015 Mobile phone: penetration rate - 2013 250 200 150 100 50 0 Genova, 06/11/2015 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 0.00% 2013 Smartphone Genova, 06/11/2015 Genova, United Arab Emirates South Korea Saudi Arabia Singapore Norway Australia Sweden Hong Kong United Kingdom Denmark Ireland Israel Canada : United States PenetrationRate Smartphone Spain Switzerland penetration New Zealand Netherlands Taiwan Austria China Slovakia Finland France Czech Republic Italy Germany South Africa Philippines Mexico Russia rate Poland Malaysia Hungary Belgium Greece - Portugal Thailand Argentina Turkey Romania Brazil Japan Vietnam Indonesia Ukraine India Telefoni fissi: 2008-2011 Number of phones 300000000.00 250000000.00 200000000.00 150000000.00 Number of phones 100000000.00 50000000.00 0.00 Genova, 06/11/2015 Telefoni fissi: 2008-2011 20000000.00 18000000.00 16000000.00 14000000.00 12000000.00 10000000.00 8000000.00 6000000.00 4000000.00 2000000.00 0.00 Genova, 06/11/2015 1000000.00 1500000.00 2000000.00 2500000.00 3000000.00 3500000.00 4000000.00 500000.00 0.00 Telefonifissi: 2008 Genova, 06/11/2015 Genova, Belarus Syria Peru Chile Sri Lanka Kazakhstan Algeria Austria Israel Hungary Serbia Morocco Czech Republic Bulgaria Republic of Ireland Denmark Norway Ecuador Singapore Croatia Uzbekistan New Zealand Finland United Arab Emirates Guatemala Costa Rica Bangladesh Azerbaijan - Nigeria Tunisia 2011 North Korea Yemen Moldova Cuba Slovakia Iraq El Salvador Puerto Rico Libya Bosnia and Herzegovina Slovenia Dominican Republic Uruguay Ethiopia Burma Honduras Nepal Lithuania Lebanon Bolivia Armenia Latvia Georgia Kuwait Panama Jordan Estonia Kyrgyzstan Paraguay Turkmenistan Case Study: Africa – cavi sottomarini Genova, 06/11/2015 Case Study: Africa Genova, 06/11/2015 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000 200,000,000 Giugno 2015,Africa Case studies: Popolazionestimata, 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 Genova, 06/11/2015 Genova, 0 Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Congo, Dem. Rep. South Africa Tanzania Kenya Algeria Uganda Sudan Morocco Ghana Mozambique Madagascar Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Angola Burkina Faso Niger Malawi Mali Zambia Zimbabwe Senegal Rwanda Guinea Chad Tunisia Burundi Somalia Benin Togo Eritrea Libya Sierra Leone Central African Rep. Congo Liberia Mauritania Namibia Botswana Gambia Lesotho Guinea-Bissau Gabon Swaziland Mauritius Reunion (FR) Djibouti Comoros Equatorial Guinea Cabo Verde Sao Tome & Principe Seychelles 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 0.00% Giugno 2015,Africa Case Study: Penetration Rate, Genova, 06/11/2015 Genova, Kenya Morocco Mauritius Egypt Seychelles Nigeria South Africa Tunisia Zimbabwe Cabo Verde Gabon Reunion (FR) Swaziland Angola Sudan Rwanda Sao Tome & Principe Uganda Senegal Cote d'Ivoire Libya Ghana Gambia Equatorial Guinea Botswana Algeria Zambia Namibia Tanzania Mauritania Benin Cameroon Lesotho Djibouti Burkina Faso Liberia Congo Mali Comoros Malawi Mozambique Togo Burundi Central African Rep.