Cold Hard Facts 3 Prepared for the Department of the Environment and Energy September 2018 Phone Web +61 3 9592 9111 www.expertgroup.com.au Table of Contents Glossary ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Abbreviations........................................................................................................................... 13 1 Executive summary ............................................................................................................ 15 2 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 18 2.1 Structure of Cold Hard Facts 3 ................................................................................................................................ 19 3 Taxonomy of a technology ................................................................................................. 21 4 The stock of equipment ...................................................................................................... 23 4.1 The scale of events ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2 Stationary air conditioning ....................................................................................................................................... 24 4.3 Mobile air conditioning .............................................................................................................................................. 37 4.4 Refrigerated cold food chain .................................................................................................................................... 48 4.4.1 Small commercial refrigeration ............................................................................................................................. 58 4.4.2 RCFC2 Medium commercial refrigeration ......................................................................................................... 60 4.4.3 RCFC3 Supermarkets ................................................................................................................................................... 62 4.4.4 RCFC4 transport refrigeration ................................................................................................................................ 68 4.4.5 RCFC5 Cold storage, distribution, industrial refrigeration and large process chilling ................ 71 4.5 Domestic refrigeration ............................................................................................................................................... 74 5 The refrigerant bank ........................................................................................................... 79 5.1 Constituents of the bank, GWP and CO2e ............................................................................................................ 81 5.2 Bank by class of equipment ...................................................................................................................................... 87 5.3 Mass flows in the bank ............................................................................................................................................... 89 5.4 Pre-charged equipment imports ............................................................................................................................ 90 5.5 Bulk refrigerant imports ........................................................................................................................................... 94 5.6 Refrigerant prices and market behavior ............................................................................................................. 98 5.7 CHF2 bank projections and predictions ............................................................................................................ 100 6 Natural refrigerants .......................................................................................................... 104 6.1 Ammonia refrigerant ................................................................................................................................................105 6.2 Carbon dioxide refrigerant .....................................................................................................................................106 6.3 Hydrocarbon refrigerant .........................................................................................................................................108 7 The future bank – projections of the bank to 2030 ........................................................... 110 7.1 Projections of the bank 2016 to 2030 ................................................................................................................ 112 7.2 Stationary AC ................................................................................................................................................................115 7.3 Mobile AC .......................................................................................................................................................................119 7.4 The refrigerated cold food chain .......................................................................................................................... 122 7.5 Domestic refrigeration .............................................................................................................................................127 8 Refrigerant use and direct emissions ................................................................................ 129 8.1 Refrigerant use ............................................................................................................................................................129 8.2 Refrigerant usage 2006 to 2016 ........................................................................................................................... 130 8.3 Refrigerant use projection from 2016 to 2030 .............................................................................................. 132 8.4 Service rates ................................................................................................................................................................. 134 8.5 Refrigerant leaks .........................................................................................................................................................135 8.6 Direct emissions estimates and projections .................................................................................................... 136 8.7 End-of-life emissions and refrigerant recovery ............................................................................................. 142 8.7.1 End-of-life emissions .................................................................................................................................................. 142 Page 2 of 202 8.7.2 Refrigerant Reclaim Australia data .................................................................................................................... 145 9 Energy and indirect emissions .......................................................................................... 146 9.1 National energy consumption ...............................................................................................................................146 9.2 Indirect emissions and total emissions ............................................................................................................. 149 10 Economics and employment............................................................................................. 152 10.1 Structure of the industry .........................................................................................................................................152 10.2 Supply lines ...................................................................................................................................................................152 10.3 Indicators of value ......................................................................................................................................................153 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ 165 References ............................................................................................................................. 166 11 Appendix A: Methodology – Taxonomy, data and assumptions ....................................... 169 11.1 Taxonomy of a technology ......................................................................................................................................169 11.2 Data and assumptions ..............................................................................................................................................171 11.2.1 Data underlying the stock model ......................................................................................................................... 171 11.2.2 Product category stock models ............................................................................................................................. 172 11.2.3 Refrigerant charges and species 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