EXPLAINING INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS ON CIVIL SOCIETY AND REFORM IN LEBANON AND LIBYA: PATH DEPENDENCE AND 'PARTIALLY' CRITICAL JUNCTURES Carmen S. Geha A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews 2014 Full metadata for this item is available in St Andrews Research Repository at: http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5939 This item is protected by original copyright Explaining Institutional Constraints on Civil Society and Reform in Lebanon and Libya: Path Dependence and ‘Partially’ Critical Junctures Carmen S. Geha This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews July 2014 Abstract This thesis is an inquiry into the challenges to the role of civic organisations in political reform during and after political transitions. The major question this research addresses is: How do institutions and institutional dynamics constrain political reform during a transition? The thesis examines how demands for reform by non-governmental organisations in Lebanon and Libya were not translated into concrete political decisions taken by regimes during a transition period. The thesis suggests that the combination of weak states and power-sharing agreements marginalizes civic organisations, and poses institutional constraints on the likelihood of reform. The thesis is based on contemporary research on events and reform trajectories in Lebanon and Libya, with a focus on the demands and strategies employed by activists during periods of transition. Lebanon between 2005 and 2010 and Libya between 2011 and 2013 underwent critical political events but subsequently did not adopt political reforms despite demands by civic organisations in two main areas: the electoral system in Lebanon and the constitutional process in Libya. A study of these two reform campaigns reveals deeply entrenched historical patterns and elements of continuity that led to path dependent outcomes during transition. By utilising theory and concepts from the perspective of historical institutionalism, the thesis identifies the factors behind path dependent outcomes in Lebanon and Libya. I argue that the transitions in Lebanon and Libya were a result of only ‘partially’ critical junctures. The thesis builds on the approach of path dependence by offering insights as to how historically inherited institutional dynamics from the previous regime can cause junctures to be only ‘partially’ critical for the broader political order. The main source of data comes from participant observations, interviews and focus groups with two organisations that tried to advance electoral reform and constitutional development. 2 Thesis Declaration 1. Candidate’s declarations I, Carmen GEHA hereby certify that this thesis, which is approximately 83,000 words in length, has been written by me, and that it is the record of work carried out by me, or principally by myself in collaboration with others as acknowledged, and that it has not been submitted in any previous application for a higher degree. I was admitted as a research student in September 2009 and as a candidate for the degree of PhD in International Relations in April 2010; the higher study for which this is a record was carried out in the University of St Andrews between 2010 and 2014. Date 14/ July 2014 Signature of candidate ……… 2. Supervisor’s declarations I hereby certify that the candidate has fulfilled the conditions of the Resolution and Regulations appropriate for the degree of PhD in International Relations in the University of St Andrews and that the candidate is qualified to submit this thesis in application for that degree. Date 15/07/14 Signature of supervisor ……… 3. Permission for publication In submitting this thesis to the University of St Andrews I understand that I am giving permission for it to be made available for use in accordance with the regulations of the University Library for the time being in force, subject to any copyright vested in the work not being affected thereby. I also understand that the title and the abstract will be published, and that a copy of the work may be made and supplied to any bona fide library or research worker, that my thesis will be electronically accessible for personal or research use unless exempt by award of an embargo as requested below, and that the library has the right to migrate my thesis into new electronic forms as required to ensure continued access to the thesis. I have obtained any third-party copyright permissions that may be required in order to allow such access and migration, or have requested the appropriate embargo below. The following is an agreed request by candidate and supervisor regarding the publication of this thesis: PRINTED COPY b) Embargo on all of print copy for a period of 3 years on the following ground(s): " Publication would preclude future publication I am requesting this embargo as I have plans to publish a book based on my PhD research. ELECTRONIC COPY b) Embargo on all of electronic copy for a period of 3 years on the following ground(s): " Publication would preclude future publication I am requesting this embargo as I have plans to publish a book based on my PhD research. Date 14/July 2014 Signature of candidate …… Date 15/07/14 Signature of supervisor ……… Acknowledgments The decision to embark on this PhD program and the journey of writing this thesis were as important as the thesis itself. For years, as an activist, I tried to change the political system in Lebanon. By 2009, it became clear that the civic activism was not enough. In 2011, I met Libyans who made me believe again that civilian-based struggles can create political change. But it was not too long, that they too lost hope and realised there was something missing. I became profoundly anxious to understand what we were doing wrong. It gradually dawned on me that I was becoming pessimistic about the possibility of change. So I wish to thank first and foremost my supervisor Dr. Frederic Volpi for helping me see the world of activism through the lens of partial criticality. It was through in-depth discussions that Dr. Volpi guided me to explore ‘partial’ changes in a long path full of junctures that activists and scholars need to be unravel. I also wish to thank Dr. Volpi’s consistency in providing valuable and insightful feedback on countless drafts. No matter how good or how bad my writing was, Dr. Volpi read it with the most precision and care. By taking my work and my efforts so seriously, he helped me make the transition from activist to scholar and expert on my topic. I am forever grateful. I also want to thank Dr. Michelle Burgis my secondary supervisor who followed me through from the first day. I will be always indebted to her advice on academia as a passion and as a career. I am grateful for my thesis examiners Dr. Fiona McCallum and Dr. Vincent Durac who offered their time and insights. Their reviews helped me refine my arguments and improve my analysis. I wholeheartedly thank Mr. Amr Ben Halim for allowing me to tag along his journeys throughout Libya. I saw Libya through his eyes of determination for reform, commitment to democracy, and dedication for an active civil society. Amr helped me meet and relate to the tens of activists and politicians who welcomed me into their homes, and cafes and streets and spoke to me about Libya’s past and present. I hope I have faithfully relayed their ideas. I am also forever indebted to my truest friends and colleagues at Beyond Reform and Development. Omar Abdel Samad, Nabil Hassan, Marwa Abou Dayya, Natalia Menhal, and Hicham Jadaoun literally carried the weight of my research on their shoulders and allowed me the 5 luxury to write this thesis. But most of all they patiently supported and cheered me up without a single hesitation during months of stress. I hope I can find a way to repay you. For their time and for sharing their critical eye on my work and ideas I wholeheartedly thank Dr. Tamirace Fakhoury, Dr. Bassel Salloukh, and the wonderful Nadim Shehadi. In 2014, the American University of Beirut and I lost a dear friend. I owe her my academic career and a great deal of my political awareness. I did not finish the PhD in time to celebrate with her; but Dr. Randa Antoun will be part of every future academic and political endeavor I undertake. None of this would be possible without my partner Gilbert Doumit. My deepest gratitude goes to him for inviting me to the first protests. Together we lived the most critical of junctures in both Lebanon and Libya. From Na-am to LADE to BRD to Libya, Gilbert has literally spent years not only encouraging but enabling me to write. Literally every finding in this thesis was shaped over countless hours of talks and reflections. He also tolerated and believed in me when I had nothing to say or write. I could not have continued a single day in this without his patience and wisdom. I also thank my sisters Aldona and Poliana, and my dearest friends Marwa, Oriana, Heidi, Sally, Tania, Amal and Lara for being courageous and inspiring women, and for lifting me up during days of worry and anxiety. I will spend the rest of my days thanking my parents Said and Therese for valuing education as the main vehicle for self-confidence, impact and improvement. They have since day one supported and taken pride in every aspect of this study. This degree and whatever will happen next is a culmination of their sacrifice and their belief in a better future for their children.