Tales From the Emerging World Why the Housing Boom Has Legs ACTIVE FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY | GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS TEAM | MACRO INSIGHT | 2021 The pandemic has been full of surprises for global AUTHOR markets, none more unexpected than the housing boom. Home prices were rising before COVID-19 and continued to rise even under lockdown. Getting RUCHIR SHARMA Head of Emerging Markets and confined to quarters turned out to be a big incentive Chief Global Strategist to move to larger quarters. But the story here is now much bigger than the oft-told tale of young families fleeing cramped city apartments for roomier suburbs. Home prices have been rising on average in U.S. cities as well as in rural and suburban areas.1 Prices have increased not only in the United States but also worldwide, regardless of how hard a country was hit by the pandemic. The latest data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) comes from the end of October 2020, and shows that over the prior 12 months home prices in its 36 member states rose by an average of more than 6 percent — ​the fastest pace since 2007. 2 In short, home prices have been rising as fast during the pandemic as they did during the boom that went bust in 2008. In our view, the boom has legs so long as its underlying supports remain firm: limited supply in many countries, coupled with demand pent-up over the last decade, unleashed by record low mortgage rates.3 Moreover, as the global economic recovery gains steam, the threat of inflation looms larger, and many investors are looking to buy traditional inflation hedges, including homes. Though supply and demand dynamics differ from one market to another, they generally point upward. Before the pandemic arrived, supply was very tight, following a decade when developers (spooked in part by the crash of 2008) built new homes at an unusually slow pace. Demand was weak, as many 1 Haver, Redfin. 2 Haver, OECD as of Q3 2020. 3 MSIM, Citi, Evercore ISI. TALES FROM THE EMERGING WORLD young people chose to put off buying a pondering a move, cheap mortgages are in the U.S., and more than 5 percent home, and rent or stay with parents an incentive to act fast. worldwide.9 We think growth could be instead. In the United States, the number considerably faster, thanks to the release Going back at least to the 1970s, housing of existing homes for sale, relative to of excess savings and pent-up demand, as had always slumped during recessions, the adult population, fell to half the people emerge from lockdown and begin both in the United States and worldwide.6 previous record lows, set in the 1990s working and shopping in the real world People lose jobs and stop dreaming of and early 2000s.4 again. Coupled with stimulus campaigns, bigger homes. But through the third which continue to roll out even as the Then came COVID-19. City dwellers quarter of last year, which saw the worst recovery gains momentum, the likelihood went looking for larger homes, often at a global recession since the 1940s, the that inflation will return is growing. If safer distance from the crowds. Bidding OECD data shows prices rising fast in anything, the incentive to invest in homes wars are driving up prices in a sellers’ developed markets from the United States as an inflation hedge is growing too. market. Rural prices are rising faster to Germany, Canada and New Zealand, than urban prices. By late last year, as and in emerging markets from Mexico to One risk is the possible end of easy developers scrambled to catch up with Turkey and India to China.7 mortgages. In anticipation of higher demand, some analysts were saying the inflation, credit markets are already There is little sign of a letup now. boom could reach “epic proportions.” starting to raise long-term rates. Many buyers are looking at homes as Mortgages however are still historically The most common factor is easy mortgage a speculative investment, not shelter. cheap.10 In many countries, disposable rates. Led by the Federal Reserve, central More than half of prospective U.S. incomes rose last year thanks to generous banks have been lowering interest rates buyers are losing out to higher bids. The government stimulus, leaving consumers for decades, hoping to stimulate economic median price of existing homes in the with low debt and record savings.11 growth, but much of that newly issued United States passed $300,000 for the They are well positioned to ignore at money keeps flowing into financial first time late last year and is now above least the early stages of an increase markets. This unintended boost accelerated $315,000.8 In China last week, the head in mortgage rates. drastically during the pandemic. of the banking and insurance regulatory commission warned that speculative The biggest risk, however, is that the housing As central banks flooded money into buying was inflating “relatively large boom becomes a bubble. Since World War the credit markets, rates on 30-year bubbles” in the real estate sector. II, bank and particularly mortgage lending mortgages, which had been falling for has played a growing role in developed decades, plummeted to record lows — ​ The global recovery is gaining economies. Increasingly, economic crises around 3 percent in the United States and momentum. The consensus forecast have been preceded by a run-up in prices for under 2 percent in Europe.5 To anyone for GDP growth in 2021 is 5 percent housing or stocks or both.12 DISPLAY 1 Housing poses a particularly big threat. Global Housing Prices Rose Right Through the 2020 Recession Worldwide, housing is worth a total OECD Nominal House Price Index of $220 trillion, or twice the value of stocks.13 And when home prices go bust, 140 the correction is not swift, as it is in 120 stocks. It takes time to unravel the bad 100 mortgage debts, which ripple through 80 the middle classes, lengthening and deepening the resulting recession. 60 40 To contain this risk, central banks need to rethink inflation. Central bankers 20 see their job as containing prices for 0 consumer goods, and consumer price 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 indexes generally do not include a direct Source: OECD nominal house price index. Data as of Q3 2020. Note: 2015 = 100. measure of home prices. We think they 4 9 Haver, US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, Applied Global Bloomberg as of March 2021. Macro Research US data as of December 31, 2020. 10 Citi, ECB, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Bloomberg RDHNXAN1 5 Citi, ECB, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Bloomberg RDHNXAN1 and NMCMFUS Indices. Data as of March 2021. and NMCMFUS Indices. Data as of March 2021. 11 Haver, J.P. Morgan. 6 Haver, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. 12 MSIM. 7 Haver, OECD as of Q3 2020. 13 MSIM, Savills. 8 Haver, National Association of Realtors as of January 2021. 2 MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT | ACTIVE FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY WHY THE HOUSING BOOM HAS LEGS should, and have been looking for the impact of monetary policy on housing the consumer price indexes would not Fed to show the way. price stability.14 Once again tiny restrain central banks from rescuing an New Zealand, which pioneered the economy in crisis, when other concerns Instead, the initiative came from New use of clear targets to fight inflation back prevail. But it would nudge them to Zealand. With home prices spiraling in the 1990s, is leading the way wind down rescues a bit earlier than out of reach for many, the progressive for central banks. they otherwise would have — ​before government in Auckland last month housing booms like the one we are changed the remit of the central bank, Hopefully, others will follow. Including in become bubbles. which is now required to assess the a direct measure of home prices in Risk Considerations: There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. 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