www.africa-confidential.com 8 July 2011 - Vol 52 - N° 14 SOUTH SUDAN BLUE LINES The clock strikes zero This month, Prime Minister David Cameron will make a flag-waving trip to Africa for British business. African governments want to know how much the Conservative-Liberal After the celebrations, the Juba government will battle to meet its people’s Democrat coalition has changed dreams and handle relations with Khartoum policy from its Labour predecessor. Cameron drew heavily on istory is made in Sudan this week. set to grow. In a clash with oppositionists former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s Dignitaries from across Africa, Asia, inside the London Embassy, Presidential manual on domestic political HEurope and the Americas flew into Advisor Nafi’e Ali Nafi’e was hit by a chair tactics, but he will tread a fine line Juba, the makeshift capital of the new as Mustafa Osman Ismail watched. The between a return to traditional Republic of South Sudan, which will furious and blood-stained former security British diplomatic priorities and become Africa’s 53rd sovereign state and the boss, who signed June’s Kordofan ceasefire Blair’s Messianic enthusiasm for world’s 194th on 9 July. The RSS (though with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement Africa and ‘liberal interventionism’. some Southerners are calling it ROSS) is (SPLM), shouted there would be no ceasefire Cameron’s decision to keep the born to overwhelming public rejoicing, the until Abdel Aziz Adam el Hilu (the former Labour government’s promise culmination of a liberation struggle that Deputy Governor) had been captured. to increase aid to 0.7% of gross officially dates beyondBritish colonialism to domestic product played well with 1820, the eve of the Turkish invasion. REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS voters but is already under fire Some Southerners even date it back to Southern secession has regional implications. from Defence Minister Liam Fox the Egyptian pharaohs, when men from Some African diplomats argue that if Eritrea’s as ‘unsustainable’ and the popular the North sought slaves and other wealth in divorce from Ethiopia could be treated as press is railing about claimed Southern Sudan, as they did routinely until an exception, South Sudan’s case was less misuses of aid at a time of across- the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement obvious. It was a founding principle of the the-board budget cuts. (CPA) and in some cases still do. The strength Organisation of African Unity that colonial Foreign Secretary William of Southern feeling is hard for outsiders to borders were sacrosanct, lest chaos ensue. Hague and Africa Minister Henry grasp. That strength will be needed if one of Its successor, the African Union, emphasises Bellingham want to bring back the poorest places on the planet is to become continental integration, firstly economic Africa policy to the Foreign Office a successful state, despite the lack of health and then political. AU officials say there is but the well-financed Department facilities, schools, administrative structures, no necessary contradiction between greater for International Development and roads and, in many areas, peace. continental cooperation and restructuring its Ministers, Andrew Mitchell and Many Northerners had underestimated states. Yet anxiety exists. Stephen O’Brien, will dominate the strength of Southerners’ feeling, without Just one week before Southern the Africa agenda for now. One questioning their widespread treatment Independence, two champions of the same concession to a more market-led as second-class citizens, in the manner of fate for Somaliland published a long plea in v i e w o f A f r i c a w a s t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t colonial rulers. Southern Independence South Africa’s weekly Mail & Guardian. This of a unit in DfID to promote business has therefore aroused sadness and will resound across the continent: Patrick in developing countries. Mitchell incomprehension among many Northerners. Mazimhaka, a Rwandan, was formerly is just back from Libya where he Although Southerners usually blame all Deputy Chairman of the AU Commission, discussed plans for post-Gadaffi Northern governments for their half-century while fellow author Greg Mills, a South reconstruction with the rebel of war, many Northerners hold the National African, was Director of SA’s Institute of Transitional National Council, Congress Party responsible. The Islamist NCP International Affairs. Both have just been to while O’Brien was in Côte d’Ivoire, has used the same oppressive tactics against Somaliland and both are senior associates promising British involvement in civilians in Darfur, the South, and most of the Brenthurst Foundation, an economic reconstruction there. recently in Abyei and the Nuba Mountains. think-tank financed by De Beers. This visceral opposition to NCP rule looks The economic opportunities offered by SUDAN 3 NIGERIA 4 SENEGAL 5 LIBYA 6 LIBERIA 7 Abyei in limbo The usual Power cuts Rebels edge GUINEA 8 Ethiopia’s peacekeepers suspects The inefficiency and closer to Tripoli CONGO-KINSHASA 9 will face heavy scrutiny incompetence which Jonathan’s new cabinet Running out of options, as Khartoum and Juba cause regular power cuts SOUTH AFRICA 10 repays old favours and Gadaffi declared that and South differ over spark political unrest. special interests with no he would choose ‘death Abyei and the still POINTERS 12 concessions to the north. before surrender’. undemarcated border. in Juba, reflected the depth of concern appointee. There is speculation about AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL that, as they have in South Kordofan conflict between party baronsNhial Deng 73 Farringdon Rd, London EC1M 3JQ, UK and Abyei, rebel militias and the NCP Nhial and Kuol Manyang Juuk. All this Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 might move to spoil the South’s big day, will test President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s Editor: Patrick Smith shared by 30 heads of state and the United powers of reconciliation. Associate Editor: Gillian Lusk Managing Editor: Clare Tauben Nations Secretary General. ‘I have to say Outside his already large tent, a divided Website: Juliet Amissah the situation is grieving me a lot, so much and disorganised opposition is lying in Published fortnightly since 1960 so that I can hardly share the joy of all wait. Lieutenant General Kiir’s pardon last 25 issues per year the Southerners,’ said one non-Sudanese week for rebel David Yauyau may help to Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. source in Juba. ‘Juba is on edge...weapons bring peace but it will not reassure those ISSN 0044-6483 (Print) ISSN 1467-6338 (Online) searches, check points, riot police on the oppositionists whose main goal seems also All material is copyright Africa Confidential. streets already, practising sitting in the to be a seat in the tent. There is little talk South Sudan are of particular interest to sun in full gear all day long.’ about policy and programmes, much more neighbours, especially Ethiopia, Kenya a n d The Sudan People’s Liberation Army about regionalism and ethnicity. ‘They Uganda, which have all flooded Juba with has been raiding for illegal arms and won’t talk to us!’ one oppositionist told labour, skilled and unskilled, and business reportedly found hundreds. The SPLA was AC. ‘Didn’t you walk out of discussions?’ people, especially in service industries. also raiding places popular with Kenyans ‘Yes! They disagreed with us!’ There is a They provide the shops, restaurants and and Ugandans, said an aid worker, ‘using long way to go in governance and civic hotels that an aid boom-town requires this opportunity to get rid of African education. The fact that over 20 opposition but which an isolated town in a war-torn migrants who don’t have work permits’. parties exist for an electorate of some 4.5 country with a minimal cash economy There were reports of people being million reflects much of the problem. never needed. Goods also flow in, at least beaten up. ‘This is a very ill-disciplined Discontent focused on the draft to Juba, which although supposedly a military,’ said United Nations Deputy High constitution (which passed into law temporary capital is acquiring a sense of Commissioner for Human Rights Kang on 6 July): complaints abound that it permanence with newly paved roads and Kyung-wha on 29 June. Human Rights was designed to suit the ruling party permanent buildings it previously lacked. Watch and Amnesty International issued and should have had an independent Preparations have been frenetic, a joint statement with recommendations. review. Many fear that the SPLM could especially for the main ceremony at the establish a de facto one-party state. Some Dr John Garang de Mabior Mausoleum CLEANING FRENZY counterbalance is found in a strengthening in Juba. Much attention has been paid A happier note was struck by a frenzy civil society, which is expanding beyond to the new national anthem, a challenge of town cleaning. Many of the old trees the traditional church stalwarts. The for the many who do not speak English, lining Juba’s main streets had already been incisive Episcopal Archbishop of Sudan, especially returnees from the North who felled to make safer, though not shadier, Daniel Deng Bul, said on 4 July that the speak Arabic and may have lost their tribal pavements for pedestrians but remaining church would have liked to be involved language. In Lankien, the authorities city-centre trees have been painted white – in constitutional consultations. ‘We don’t installed speakers throughout the town an environmentally uncertain ceremonial need a dictatorship again.’ He offered to blare out, repeatedly, the inevitably habit shared with Northern Sudan. ‘If it church mediation with rebels such as optimistic stanzas: ‘And sing songs of remains clean, that would be fine,’ one George Athor Deng, Peter Gatdet Yaka freedom with joy, For justice, liberty and Southern official told us.