Asia's Emerging Nuclear Era: Climate Strategies & Implications for U.S. Policy Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force: 2011 $VLD¶V(PHUJLQJ1XFOHDU(UD Climate Strategies & Implications for U.S. Policy Task Force Report 2011 Task Force Advisor: Scott L. Montgomery Task Force Evaluator: Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr. Task Force Members: Chantal Anderson Kristina Backstrom Heather Early Sylvia Gozdek Alyssa Hunt Emilia Jones Andrew Kim Kimberly Kuo Sandy Lee Christan Leonard (Editor) Darren Levin (Editor) Ann Pederson Mbasireh Saidybah Alexandra Sawyer Brandon Skyles Nikki Thompson (Coordinator) Michelle Tong Asia’s Emerging Nuclear Era: Climate Strategies and Implications for U.S. Policy Policy Brief Background: Earth‘s climate is changing rapidly. Two centuries of burning fossil fuels have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This has led to elevated mean near-surface temperatures, rising sea levels, and acidification of the oceans. As the harmful effects of climate change become more apparent, many nations are turning to nuclear power as a viable option to meet rising demands for electricity with minimal carbon emissions. Concentrated in Asia, where hundreds of new reactors will be built in the next few decades, the new era of nuclear power expansion is underway. A nuclear power plant has not been built in the U.S. in over 30 years, suggesting America may be falling behind in nuclear technology. The American public has a largely negative perception of nuclear power due to past accidents at Chernobyl and Three-Mile Island. In the post 9/11 world, Americans are also particularly concerned about national security and the threat of nuclear terrorism. Critical Issues: Critics of nuclear power argue that the U.S. should focus its efforts on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, but these are decades away from providing sufficient baseload power. Although nuclear energy does not produce significant greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear power plants do generate highly toxic radioactive waste that must be stored for centuries to avoid harmful effects on humans and the environment. A variety of geologic storage facilities have proven safe and effective but they lack political support in the U.S. due to unfounded fears about the safety of nuclear energy. Nuclear power has an outstanding safety record, but a thriving domestic industry will depend on reversing misguided public perception. While nuclear power is an efficient means of generating large amounts of power, it is also relatively expensive when compared with coal and other fossil fuels. However, government intervention to standardize and regulate the nuclear industry has proven effective in reducing economic costs. Furthermore, the cost of nuclear power includes the expense of waste storage and decommissioning, whereas the price of fossil fuels, particularly coal, does not internalize these and other environmental costs. Such inclusion, through a carbon pricing scheme for instance, would make nuclear power fully competitive or even cheaper. Meanwhile, lower costs for nuclear plants are now being achieved in East Asia, as a result of well-planned designs and financial arrangements. Fuel resources are abundant and the price of nuclear power is not dependent to a significant degree on rising costs of uranium; electricity from coal, gas, and oil is much more sensitive to the costs of these fuels, all of which are expected to rise in the coming decades. Possibly the most pressing concern regarding the recent increase in nuclear power is the issue of coupling; the same technologies used to produce fuel for power plants can also make fuel for nuclear weapons. Many fear that an expansion in nuclear power will lead to further weapons proliferation to potentially dangerous rogue states and terrorists. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have proven effective in securing nuclear materials and reversing weapons programs, but the treaty is currently in crisis due to the unfulfilled commitments of signatory states. The nuclear weapon states have not fulfilled their commitment to 1 Asia’s Emerging Nuclear Era: Climate Strategies and Implications for U.S. Policy disarm, and the non-nuclear weapon states have used this as justification to ignore the treaty or withdraw from it entirely, as in the case of North Korea. Furthermore, some states argue that the nuclear power states have not fulfilled their commitment to provide peaceful nuclear technology to states seeking nuclear power. Some states have used this as justification to acquire technologies such as reprocessing, which expand the energy efficiency of uranium, but which are economically inadvisable and which produce weapons-grade materials and are a danger to the non-proliferation regime. The future success of non-proliferation efforts hinges on the non-discriminatory and universal application of the NPT. Recommendations: Given these realities, this report recommends the following: The U.S. should support the development of peaceful nuclear programs at home and abroad through increased cooperation between the government and the private sector; the U.S. government can learn from the Asian example by increasing standardization and streamlining licensing procedures domestically. The government should work to educate the public about nuclear power to improve the domestic industry and to establish a long-term waste depository. Furthermore, the government should support research on new nuclear technologies which may improve the safety and efficiency of nuclear energy, reduce the possibility of proliferation, and benefit the U.S. economically as the world turns to nuclear power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. should work to establish an international fuel center controlled by the IAEA to provide a stable fuel supply and to prevent the spread of proliferation- prone technologies such as reprocessing. The U.S. should work to strengthen the non-proliferation regime by encouraging universality among treaty signatories. The U.S. should start leading by example; it should ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; commit to further disarmament; increase transparency by opening U.S. military facilities to IAEA inspections; and end nuclear weapons research and plans to modernize its nuclear fleet. These unilateral efforts should be followed by U.S. led multilateral efforts to do the same worldwide. The U.S. should also increase funding to the IAEA and other organizations that work to increase nuclear security and prevent the spread of fissile materials to rogue states and terrorists. 2 Asia’s Emerging Nuclear Era: Climate Strategies and Implications for U.S. Policy Table of Contents Glossary of Acronyms……………………………………………………………………5 List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………….9 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………..11 Christan Leonard and Darren Levin Part I: The Present State of Affairs…………………………………………….……….19 Chapter One: The Current State of the Earth‘s Climate and the Future Effects of Global Warming…………………………………………………...............………….………….2 1 Andrew Kim Chapter Two: The Future of Energy Consumption: Energy Trends and Demand in Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Alyssa Hunt Chapter Three: Nuclear Energy‘s Environment Advantage: A Comparison of Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation Potential for Different Energy Technologies…….……67 Emilia Jones Part II: The Economics of Nuclear Power……………………...………………………97 Chapter Four: The Cost of Power: An Economic Comparison of Energy Technologies……………………………………………………………………………..99 Sandy Lee Chapter Five: Power, Purpose, and the Emerging Nuclear Market: The Role of Governments and the Private Sector……………………………………………………133 Brandon Skyles Chapter Six: Mining For Power: Distribution, Extraction, and Implications of the Global Uranium Resource…………………………………………………………………...…165 Alexandra Sawyer 3 Asia’s Emerging Nuclear Era: Climate Strategies and Implications for U.S. Policy Part III: Human and Environmental Security…………………………………………191 Chapter Seven: The Next Generation of Nuclear Technologies: Meeting Social Demands………………………………………………………………………………..193 Ann Pederson Chapter Eight: Nuclear Safety and Waste Disposal: Facts, Issues, and Perceptions…231 Michelle Tong Chapter Nine: The Reality of Reprocessing: Open Versus Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycles…………………………………………………………………………………...253 Sylvia Gozdek Part IV: Dual-Use Technology and the Threat of Proliferation……………………….277 Chapter Ten: The Status and Future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty……….279 Mbasireh Saidybah Chapter Eleven: Nuclear ―Hot Spots‖ and Preventing New Nuclear Wars…...………311 Kristina Backstrom Chapter Twelve: The Preventable Threat of Nuclear Terrorism………….…………..343 Kimberly Kuo Chapter Thirteen: Implications of the U.S.-India Deal………………………………365 Chantal Anderson Chapter Fourteen: Reducing Existing Arsenals: The Path to Nuclear Security……..387 Heather Early Chapter Fifteen: Securing Civilian Nuclear Materials………………………………..421 Nikki Thompson Conclusion and Policy Recommendations…………………………………………...451 Christan Leonard and Darren Levin 4 Asia’s Emerging Nuclear Era: Climate Strategies and Implications for U.S. Policy Glossary of Acronyms ABWR – Advanced Boiling Water Reactor AECL – Atomic Energy Canada Limited AEO – Annual Energy Outlook AERB - Atomic Energy Regulatory Board AGR – Advanced Gas Cooler Reactor