Wettelijke Onderzoekstaken Natuur & Milieu BioScore 2 – Plants & Mammals Background and pre-processing of distribution data WOt-technical report 50 S.M. Hennekens, J.M. Hendriks, W.A. Ozinga, J.H.J. Schaminée & L. Santini BioScore 2 – Plants & Mammals This WOt-technical report was produced in accordance with the Quality Manual of the Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment. The ‘WOt-technical reports’ series presents the findings of research projects implemented for the Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment by various centres of expertise. WOt-technical report 50 presents the findings of a research project commissioned by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and funded by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ).This document contributes to the body of knowledge which will be incorporated in more policy-oriented publications such as the National Nature Outlook and Environmental Balance reports, and thematic assessments. BioScore 2 – Plants & Mammals Background and pre-processing of distribution data S .M. Hennekens, J.M. Hendriks, W.A. Ozinga , J.H.J. Schaminée & L. Santini Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment Wageningen, December 2015 WOt-technical report 50 ISSN 2352-2739 Abstract Hennekens, S.M., J.M. Hendriks, W.A. Ozinga, J.H.J. Schaminée & L. Santini (2015). BioScore 2 – Plants & Mammals. Background and pre-processing of distribution data. Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment (WOT Natuur & Milieu), WOt-technical report 50. 221 p; several Figs; several Tabs; 14 Refs; 10 annexes. This report highlights the background and pre-processing of the distribution of plant species, habitats and mammal species. For plants a selection of about 900 taxa has been made, based on 45 Annex I habitat types, which represent a substantial part of European natural and semi-natural vegetation. For animals all species existing in Europe have been taken into account. The data covers more or less all EU28 countries and is pre-processed in three steps to feed the BioScore 2 model. In the first step for each species or habitat type a climate/soil model has been created by using Boosted Regression Models (GBM). On the basis of these models presence/absence maps are derived to define the distribution range of the species/habitat types. In the second step additional knowledge was brought in to further specify the potential habitat within the distribution range, by laying an explicit mask over it, selecting only those land use types (land cover classes) suitable for the occurrence of the habitat type or species. In the third step the effect of human-induced pressures on habitat quality and species occurrence/abundance within the suitable habitats in the calculated distribution ranges was taken into account. The dose-effect relations were calculated on the basis of Generalized Linear Models (GLM). All outcomes of the three steps have been further used by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) to set up the BioScore 2 model. Keywords: BioScore 2, Plants, Mammals, Species distribution, Multivariate regression models, Univariate regression models, TRIMMaps, European Vegetation Archive, Drivers, Pressures. Referaat Hennekens, S.M., J.M. Hendriks, W.A. Ozinga, J.H.J. Schaminée & L. Santini (2015). BioScore 2 – Planten & Zoogdieren. Achtergronden en voorbewerking van verspreidingsgegevens. Wettelijke Onderzoekstaken Natuur & Milieu. WOt-technical report 50. 221 blz.; div. figs.; div. tabs.; 14 refs.; 10 bijlagen. Dit rapport belicht de achtergrond en voorbewerking van de verspreidingsgegevens van planten, habitats en zoogdieren. Voor planten is een selectie van ongeveer 900 taxa gemaakt op basis van 45 Annex I habitattypen, waarvoor de taxa min of meer typerend zijn. Voor de zoogdieren zijn alle in Europa voorkomende soorten in de analyse betrokken. De gegevens omvatten een groot deel van Europa en zijn in drie stappen bewerkt om uiteindelijk als basis te dienen voor het BioScore 2-model. In de eerste stap is voor iedere soort en habitattype een klimaat/bodem-model opgesteld met behulp van zogenaamde Boosted Regression Models (GBM). Op basis van deze modellen zijn presentie/absentie-kaarten opgesteld die de potentiële verspreiding van de soorten/habitattypen weergeeft. In de tweede stap is aanvullende kennis ingebracht om het potentiële habitat verder te preciseren. Dit is gedaan door een overlap te maken met de CLC-kaart (Corine Land Cover), nadat habitattypen en soorten aan specifieke landgebruiksklassen waren gekoppeld. Vervolgens zijn in de derde stap, binnen de potentiële verspreiding van de soorten en habitats, positieve en negatieve waarnemingen geselecteerd om dosis-effectrelaties op te stellen voor een aantal drukfactoren (o.a. stikstof- en zwaveldepositie, verdroging, fragmentatie). The dosis-effectrelaties zijn berekend op basis van zogenaamde Generalized Linear Models (GLM). De uitkomsten van alle drie de stappen zijn verder gebruikt door het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL) om het BioScore 2-model op te stellen. Trefwoorden: BioScore 2, Planten, Zoogdieren. Soortsverspreiding, Multivariate regressie modellen, Univariate regressie modellen, TRIMMaps, European Vegetation Archive, Drivers, Drukfacturen. Foto omslag: Rense Haveman Authors: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Stephan Hennekens, Wim Ozinga & Joop Schaminée PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven (Alterra Wageningen UR), Marjon Hendriks (PBL), Phone: 070 328 8700; e-mail:[email protected] Luca Santini (Sapienza University Rome) Global Mammal Assessment programme © 2015 Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Alterra Wageningen UR Università di Roma PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen Viale dell'Università 32, 00185 Roma, Italy Phone: (0317) 48 07 00; e-mail:[email protected] The WOt-technical reports series is published by the Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment (WOT Natuur & Milieu), part of Wageningen UR. This document is available from the secretary’s office, and can be downloaded from www.wageningenUR.nl/wotnatuurenmilieu Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Phone: +31 317 48 54 71; e-mail: [email protected]; Internet: www.wageningenUR.nl/wotnatuurenmilieu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or republished by printing, photocopying, microfilm or any other means without the publisher’s prior permission in writing. The publisher accepts no responsibility for any damage ensuing from the use of the results of this study or from the implementation of the recommendations contained in this report. F-0031 UK vs 1.1 (2015) Project WOT-04-011.036.62 WOt-technical report 50 – December 2015 Preface In 2009 the BioScore biodiversity impact assessment tool was developed as part of a research project funded by EC DG Research and Technological Development FP6. The project was coordinated by the European Centre for Nature Conservation (ECNC) and implemented by a consortium of nine partners. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), together with Alterra Wageningen UR, was in charge of the technical development of the BioScore database and web tool. At the time of delivery it was recognized that BioScore was a first version and that there was much room for improvement. Since then PBL has been actively using the BioScore tool for a number of Europe-wide scenario studies. Currently PBL is further developing BioScore 1.0 into BioScore 2.0 so that it can be used for the Netherlands Nature Assessment (Nature Outlook) 2016. The Nature Outlook is produced every four years. It provides a perspective of nature and policy options for the next 30-40 years. Until now these assessments were restricted to the Netherlands. As national nature policy is increasingly decided at EU level, the Dutch government requested PBL to expand the study area to cover the whole EU28. However, PBL is politically independent as guaranteed by Dutch law. The Nature Outlook therefore offers an independent view, which may differ from Dutch national policy. PBL initiated and financed BioScore 2.0, which it develops together with some old and new partners. This consortium enables PBL to deliver a new version of BioScore, which will be tested in 2015 and 2016 and applied in the Nature Outlook project. Information on species distribution and sensitivity to various environmental pressures was brought together and moulded into an improved model concept together with the following partners: • European Bird Census Council / Henk Sierdsema, Sovon (NL); • Butterfly Conservation Europe / Chris van Swaay, Vlinderstichting, (NL); • European Vegetation Survey / Stephan Hennekens & Joop Schaminée, Alterra Wageningen UR, (NL); • European Mammal Society / Carlo Rondinini, Sapienza University Rome, (It). Stephan Hennekens, Marjon Hendriks, Wim Ozinga, Joop Schaminée & Luca Santini Contents Preface 5 Summary 9 1 Introduction 13 2 Selection of habitat types and species 15 3 Data collection 17 4 Data review 19 5 Selection of drivers and pressures 21 6 Distribution and univariate modelling 23 6.1 Step 1: Defining distribution range 23 6.2 Step 2: Specifying potential habitat 25 6.3 Step 3: Determining effect of pressures 25 7 Multivariate analysis of vascular plants in two habitat types 27 8 Sensitivity analysis 29 References 31 Justification 33 Annex 1 Selected Natura 2000 habitat types 35 Annex 2 Relation between Natura 2000 habitats and CLC classes 129 Annex 3 Relation between habitats