420 PAUL BOUMAN Passengers, Crowding and Complexity was written as part of the Complexity in Public Transport (ComPuTr) project funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientifi c Research (NWO). This thesis studies in three parts how microscopic data can be used in models that have the potential to improve utilization, while preventing excess crowding. Passengers, Crowding and In the fi rst part, the emergence of crowding caused by interactions between the behavior of passengers BOUMAN - PAUL and the public transport operators who plan the vehicle capacities is modeled. Using simulations the impact of the information disclosed to the passengers by public transport operators on the utilization and Complexity passenger satisfaction is analyzed. A quasi-experiment with a large group of students in a similar setting fi nds that four types of behavior can be observed. Models for Passenger Oriented Public Transport In the second part, algorithms that can extract temporal and spatial patterns from smart card data are developed and a fi rst step to use such patterns in an agent based simulation is made. Furthermore, a way to generate synthetic smart card data is proposed. This is useful for the empirical validation of algorithms that analyze such data. In the third and fi nal part it is considered how individual decision strategies can be developed in situations Passengers, Cr where there exists uncertainty about the availability and quality of travel options. We investigate how the best strategy for a specifi c type of objective can be computed. Finally, we analyze which strategies are worthwhile to consider for a very broad set of objectives. The Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) is the Research School (Onderzoekschool) in owding and Complexity the fi eld of management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The founding participants of ERIM are the Rotterdam School of Management (RSM), and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE). ERIM was founded in 1999 and is o cially accredited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). The research undertaken by ERIM is focused on the management of the fi rm in its environment, its intra- and interfi rm relations, and its business processes in their interdependent connections. The objective of ERIM is to carry out fi rst rate research in management, and to o er an advanced doctoral programme in Research in Management. Within ERIM, over three hundred senior researchers and PhD candidates are active in the di erent research programmes. From a variety of academic backgrounds and expertises, the ERIM community is united in striving for excellence and working at the forefront of creating new business knowledge. ERIM PhD Series Research in Management Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) Erasmus Research Institute of Management Mandeville (T) Building Burgemeester Oudlaan 50 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands P.O. Box 1738 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands T +31 10 408 1182 E [email protected] W www.erim.eur.nl PASSENGERS,CROWDING AND COMPLEXITY MODELS FOR PASSENGER ORIENTED PUBLIC TRANSPORT thesis-tuijtel-export.indd 1 24-5-2017 13:35:09 Passengers, Crowding and Complexity Models for passenger oriented public transport Passagiers, druktevorming en complexiteit Modellen voor passagiersgeoriënteerd openbaar vervoer Thesis to obtain the degree of Doctor from the Erasmus University Rotterdam by command of the rector magnificus Prof.dr. H.A.P. Pols and in accordance with the decision of the Doctorate Board The public defense shall be held on Thursday 15th of June 2017 at 15:30 by PAUL CORNELIS BOUMAN born in De Bilt, the Netherlands. thesis-tuijtel-export.indd 2 24-5-2017 13:35:09 Passengers, Crowding and Complexity Models for passenger oriented public transport Passagiers, druktevorming en complexiteit Modellen voor passagiersgeoriënteerd openbaar vervoer Thesis to obtain the degree of Doctor from the Erasmus University Rotterdam by command of the rector magnificus Prof.dr. H.A.P. Pols and in accordance with the decision of the Doctorate Board The public defense shall be held on Thursday 15th of June 2017 at 15:30 by PAUL CORNELIS BOUMAN born in De Bilt, the Netherlands. thesis-tuijtel-export.indd 3 24-5-2017 13:35:09 Doctoral Committee Promotors: Prof.dr. L.G. Kroon ( 14-09-2016) † Prof.dr. A. Schöbel Prof.dr.mr. P.H.M. Vervest Other members: Dr. J. van Dalen Prof.dr. D. Huisman Prof.dr. K. Nagel Acknowledgements Erasmus Research Institute of Management - ERIM The joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management (RSM) and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at the Erasmus University Rotterdam Internet: http://www.erim.eur.nl It can be argued that the origin of this thesis can be traced back to a late Thursday evening, somewhere in the spring of the year two thousand and eleven at the bar of ERIM Electronic Series Portal: http://repub.eur.nl/ Biton, a humble student association in the city of Utrecht, The Netherlands. During this fateful evening fellow student Marijke Bodlaender informed me about a vacancy ERIM PhD Series in Research in Management, 420 for a PhD Student at the Erasmus University, which she received via the mailing-list ERIM reference number: EPS-2017-420-LIS on Discrete Mathematics and Algorithms. This information led to an e-mail to and ISBN 978-90-5892-482-7 a phone call from Leo Kroon, a very pleasant job interview with Peter Vervest and c 2017, Paul Bouman Evelien van der Hurk and ultimately, the thesis you are currently reading. Over the course of the last couple of years I always believed that writing these Design: PanArt www.panart.nl acknowledgments would be a nice way to end the writing of my thesis, yet I did not realize that the amount of space available is not enough to express my full gratitude. Cover image design: Emily Simpson Words cannot do justice to the many stories, memories and experiences. On many occasions the cliché “You had to be there” is amazingly appropriate. This publication (cover and interior) is printed by Tuijtel on recycled paper, BalanceSilk R . The ink used is produced from renewable resources and alcohol free fountain solution. Academic Acknowledgments First, I want to state I am very grateful for the sup- Certifications for the paper and the printing production process: Recycle, EU Ecolabel, FSC R , ISO14001. port of Leo Kroon during the years I was working on my thesis. He was always More info: www.tuijtel.com patient to explain the intricacies of railway operations and suggest which questions are of interest to Netherlands Railways. He had an uncanny ability to find unclarity All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, and spelling mistakes in my writing. As a person, I appreciated his sense of humor electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, and the fact that I could often walk into his office unannounced to give him an update without permission in writing from the author. on what I had been working on. It saddens me that I had to finish my thesis without his guidance and I hope he found the peace he desired. I am also grateful to Peter Vervest. I did not expect to find his sincere enthusiasm for the exact sciences in a business school, but it has lead to more pleasant conversations than I can count. I also appreciate his ability to challenge people to think outside the box, even though the visions of the future he paints to achieve this are sometimes a bit unorthodox. His effort in pushing me to finalize my thesis has been indispensable. thesis-tuijtel-export.indd 4 24-5-2017 13:35:09 Doctoral Committee Promotors: Prof.dr. L.G. Kroon ( 14-09-2016) † Prof.dr. A. Schöbel Prof.dr.mr. P.H.M. Vervest Other members: Dr. J. van Dalen Prof.dr. D. Huisman Prof.dr. K. Nagel Acknowledgements Erasmus Research Institute of Management - ERIM The joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management (RSM) and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at the Erasmus University Rotterdam Internet: http://www.erim.eur.nl It can be argued that the origin of this thesis can be traced back to a late Thursday evening, somewhere in the spring of the year two thousand and eleven at the bar of ERIM Electronic Series Portal: http://repub.eur.nl/ Biton, a humble student association in the city of Utrecht, The Netherlands. During this fateful evening fellow student Marijke Bodlaender informed me about a vacancy ERIM PhD Series in Research in Management, 420 for a PhD Student at the Erasmus University, which she received via the mailing-list ERIM reference number: EPS-2017-420-LIS on Discrete Mathematics and Algorithms. This information led to an e-mail to and ISBN 978-90-5892-482-7 a phone call from Leo Kroon, a very pleasant job interview with Peter Vervest and c 2017, Paul Bouman Evelien van der Hurk and ultimately, the thesis you are currently reading. Over the course of the last couple of years I always believed that writing these Design: PanArt www.panart.nl acknowledgments would be a nice way to end the writing of my thesis, yet I did not realize that the amount of space available is not enough to express my full gratitude. Cover image design: Emily Simpson Words cannot do justice to the many stories, memories and experiences. On many occasions the cliché “You had to be there” is amazingly appropriate. This publication (cover and interior) is printed by Tuijtel on recycled paper, BalanceSilk R . The ink used is produced from renewable resources and alcohol free fountain solution.