West Suffolk Housing Delivery Study March 2019 Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Introduction 8 Part 1: Housing Delivery Assessment 12 2. The Importance of Increasing Delivery 13 3. Overview of Past Delivery 23 4. Interrogating Trends in Past Delivery 38 5. Determinants of Demand 71 6. Housing Trajectory Planning 90 7. Summary of Housing Delivery Assessment 100 Part 2: Informing the Housing Delivery Plan 103 8. Recommendations 104 Appendix 1: Key Sites in Current Housing Trajectory 136 Appendix 2: November Stakeholder Workshop Notes 150 Appendix 3: Additional Commentary on Modern Methods of Construction 155 Client Forest Heath District Council and St Edmundsbury Borough Council Our reference SUFP3001 March 2019 Executive Summary 1. This report focuses on how West Suffolk Council, working with its partners in the public and private sector, can deliver the new homes that are needed in the area over the next 15-20 years. This study was commissioned to complement the Housing Strategy, which was recently approved by West Suffolk Council (Forest Heath District Council and St Edmundsbury Borough Council), and to inform the preparation of a Housing Delivery Plan. 2. The vision within the Housing Strategy confirms that the Council is ‘committed to increasing the supply, range and quality of housing for our current and future residents’1. It also confirms the Council’s recognition of the opportunity to explore new ways of increasing the rate of housing delivery locally. It states: “We need to find new innovative ways to help developers speed up the rate that they build new homes, through making the planning system as efficient as it can be, supporting the provision of required infrastructure and using all the powers we have to act where housebuilding has been significantly delayed or slow to come forward”2 3. The Council has in this context recently taken the positive step of committing significant additional resources to strengthen its Development Management and Growth Services, recruiting additional staff in its Strategic Housing, Economic Development, Planning and Property teams, with the aim of supporting and promoting growth across West Suffolk. 4. This report complements the Housing Strategy, and identifies actions that can be taken to boost overall housing delivery and provide greater choice in the types and tenures of new homes. The Council will draw upon this report in the development of a Housing Delivery Plan and the West Suffolk Local Plan. 5. The report has been prepared in the context of the Government’s stated objective of ‘significantly boosting the supply of housing’, with a target for England of delivering an average of 300,000 new homes annually by the mid-2020s. 6. All local authorities in England are expected to contribute to achieving the Government’s target; and if there are robust reasons why one authority cannot deliver their element of the overall target, then neighbouring authorities will be expected to make up the shortfall. 7. As context, in the year April 2017-March 2018 around 222,200 new homes were delivered in England, representing 75% of the Government’s target, so there is some way to go to achieve the Government’s ambition. West Suffolk will need to increase the delivery of new homes to play its part in the achievement of this goal. 1 West Suffolk Councils (2018) ‘Draft West Suffolk Housing Strategy 2018 – 2023’ 2 Ibid 1 8. The St Edmundsbury 2017 Five Year Housing Land Supply statement shows that the borough delivered 67% of planned homes between 2012 and 2017, with an average delivery rate of 323 dwellings per annum, resulting in a shortfall of 791 homes over the period3. Forest Heath’s Five Year Housing Land Supply statement shows that the district delivered 78% of planned homes over the same period, with an average delivery rate of 265dpa, resulting in a shortfall of 377 homes. 9. In the longer term, the quantum of new housing that West Suffolk will be expected to provide is likely to increase, not decrease. The challenge is all the greater given that a downturn in the housing market, and current political uncertainties, could affect investment in housing. 10. All the evidence indicates that, to achieve the goal of meeting the full need for housing, West Suffolk should continue to approach its role in enabling an increase in housing delivery proactively, building upon its investment and progress to date. In particular the Council will need to support the development of a more diverse home-building sector in West Suffolk, capable of providing a more diverse range of new homes. 11. To do this the Council will need to engage with a broad range of partners responsible for delivering housing. This will include smaller local SME builders as well as new entrants to the market with funding models different to those of the mainstream housebuilders; and encourage a wider range of Registered Providers (RPs) to invest in West Suffolk, particularly larger RPs with diversified funding sources. 12. The Housing Strategy and Delivery Plan will, in due course, be accompanied by a new West Suffolk Local Plan, which will inform the number of new homes required, and identify appropriate locations for development, alongside policies relating to other land uses. 13. The recommendations presented in the report have been informed by a detailed Housing Delivery Assessment which has involved a review of the historic pattern of housing development across West Suffolk and is set out within Part 1 of this report. This analysis sheds light on how the market for new homes has functioned in the period 2001-2017. Part 2 of the report provides recommendations to assist the Council in delivering against its Housing Strategy. Part 1: Housing Delivery Assessment 14. A detailed review of past and current rates of housing delivery across West Suffolk has been undertaken. This has identified: a. In the past West Suffolk has demonstrated the ability to “absorb” comparatively high levels of housing growth, when benchmarked against the size of the existing housing stock and compared with national absorption rates. 3 Since the start of the plan period in 2008 St Edmundsbury has built up a shortfall of 1,943 homes against its adopted Core Strategy targets. 2 b. The capacity of the local market to support more positive levels of new housebuilding indicates that it should be possible to increase overall delivery rates in future, although this will require a supportive policy and strategy framework building on the Council’s approach to date with the aim of enabling and supporting higher levels of delivery. c. A mix of market and affordable housing has been delivered in West Suffolk over recent years. Around a quarter of all homes completed since 2012 have been affordable. This has contributed towards addressing an evidenced need for affordable housing. d. Sites of all sizes have contributed towards housing supply in West Suffolk over the past six years (2012 – 2018). Although larger sites account for the majority of homes delivered in the area, smaller sites (<10 dwellings) account for 30% of overall housing supply. e. St Edmundsbury in particular has seen a number of developments by local and regional housebuilders, although the larger sites have generally been delivered by national housebuilders. f. New homes in West Suffolk have in the past been delivered on both greenfield and brownfield sites, with a relatively even split. Since 2012, housing completions in West Suffolk have been maximised in those years when brownfield sites matched or exceeded the supply delivered on greenfield sites. g. Red Lodge, Bury St Edmunds and Haverhill have been the most significant locations in terms of housing delivery since 2012. h. Since 2012, over half (56%) of all housing sites in West Suffolk were commenced and built out in a single year. The largest site (Northgate Street/Cotton Lane, Thingoe House in Bury St Edmunds parish) to be fully built out in one year delivered a total of 56 dwellings. i. Larger sites are built out over a longer period of time. In terms of annualised delivery rates for sites of 50 dwellings or more, a range between 21 and 60 dwellings per annum was recorded. The maximum number of homes built in a single year on a large site was 112 dwellings (at Kings Warren in Red Lodge parish in 2012). It is noted that national housebuilders’ typical build out rates per site (45dpa) is a figure situated broadly at the mid-point of the range quoted above and in this respect West Suffolk is not atypical. j. Lead-in times for smaller sites in West Suffolk (<100 dwellings) are relatively short, when compared to evidence of average lead in times nationally. The average lead-in times for larger sites in West Suffolk are longer than small sites, and align closely with the national average. 3 k. There is little evidence of planning permissions lapsing on larger sites in West Suffolk. This is consistent with national evidence that non-implementation is uncommon on larger sites outside major urban areas. While permissions on some smaller sites have lapsed, this remains comparatively rare and does not significantly affect the overall supply of new homes in the area. l. A future trajectory of housing sites was developed by both St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath Councils in the context of current Plans. It is understood that the Council is in the process of updating this trajectory but this study is limited to analysis of the current published trajectories with a base date of 2017. These trajectories are comprised of existing permissions and allocations. Larger sites are assumed to progressively make a stronger contribution towards future supply over the next ten years in the current trajectories.