An Analysis of Arctic Coastal Resilience in Response to Erosion, Eustasy, and Anthropogenic Catastrophes Team: Mat-Tsunamis Lucas Arthur Jacob Cucinello Cade Johnstone Sarah Montalbano Leah Wyzykowski Mat-Su Career and Technical High School 2472 N. Seward Meridian Pkwy Wasilla, AK 99654 Primary Contact: Lucas Arthur [email protected] Coach: Tim Lundt [email protected] Disclaimer: This paper was written as part of the Alaska Ocean Sciences Bowl high school competition. The conclusions in this report are solely those of the student authors. 2 An Analysis of Arctic Coastal Resilience in Response to Erosion, Eustasy, and Anthropogenic Catastrophes Abstract: The current environment of the Arctic coastline is shifting. As global climate change continues, the Arctic is growing progressively warmer, and as continental and glacial ice melts, increased water makes its way to the ocean basins, causing sea levels to rise in a form of eustasy, or long-term variation in sea levels, which accelerates erosion. Rising temperatures also lead to a decrease in the sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean, which amplifies wave action during storms. As wave action and sea levels rise, along with increased storm frequency, the Arctic coastline is being heavily eroded, which poses a substantial threat to coastal communities. This coastal erosion may force entire towns to relocate, and is already necessitating numerous other coastal management projects. As sea ice retreats, shorter, more efficient trade routes are becoming viable which may lead to an increase in commerce along with other industrial interests. These industrial activities, namely hydrocarbon production, lead to the possibility of anthropogenic catastrophes that must be dealt with effectively in a new, untested environment. These changing factors combine to form a dynamic environment that has the potential to vastly impact the global environment as well as the global economy, requiring the implementation of environmental and industrial regulations as well as new forms of coastal management. 3 Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 2 Physical Characteristics of the Arctic Coastline ............................................................................. 4 Ecological Characteristics of the Arctic Coast ............................................................................... 4 Increased Human Presence in the Arctic ....................................................................................... 5 The Exacerbating Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Erosion ................................................. 8 Anthropogenic Catastrophes ........................................................................................................... 9 Action Plan.................................................................................................................................... 12 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 13 4 Physical Characteristics of the Arctic Coastline The Arctic is a vast area, covering roughly 14,056,00 square kilometer, and 45,390 kilometers of coastline covered in features such as large ice-formed mounds called pingos, as well as large cracks called ice wedges (Godin et al., 2015). Under the soil is a layer of thick permafrost which, along with sunlight, regulates temperature — keeping an annual average of -12.6 degrees Celsius (Climate Information for Barrow, 2015). Coastal Figure 1: Thermokarst development south of Cape Halkett. Halkett.sediments consist of mud, sand, and gravel that form large bluffs and move nutrients into the ecosystem when eroded (Oomittuk, 2015). Poor drainage is a major characteristic of the Arctic and leads to the formation of thermokarsts, or thaw lakes, as thawing permafrost forces water to the surface (Figure 1). The Arctic Ocean is also unique due to a large number of rivers and streams and melting sea ice which lower salinity with an average of 15.58 parts per thousand (Godin et al., 2015). Sea ice has lost 1.19 million square kilometers from 1981 to 2010 (NSIDC, 2015). Arctic warming has had a large influence on the world’s oceans. The average surface temperature on earth has increased 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1880 (WWF, n.d.), increasing the rate of sea ice melt to 4.6 percent per decade (NOAA, n.d.). The decrease in sea ice increases storm severity on the coast making large erosion events more common and putting coastal towns at risk (Vermaire, 2013). Ecological Characteristics of the Arctic Coastline The flora and fauna of the Arctic coastline are uniquely shaped by seasonal darkness and prolonged low temperatures. Contrary to the ecosystems of lower latitudes, marine species are 5 limited in both biomass and diversity. Flora is limited to shrubbery, the most prevalent types being dwarf birch, willow, and northern Labrador tea (Arctic Coastal Tundra, n.d.). Biological productivity is limited primarily to the summer when abundant daylight allows vegetation to flourish. Twelve species of bird are present year-long, although many more migrate seasonally. Seals, including the harp and ringed seal, are prevalent, with predators such as the polar bear dependent upon them. Relying on phytoplankton and zooplankton, are copepods: tiny arthropods in the water column, where they serve as a major food source for fish and seabirds (Laney, 2011). There are about 240 species of marine fishes, primarily demersal, in the Arctic (Hopcraft, 2009). A key fish species is the Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), which serves as a crucial link between lower trophic levels and higher ones. Higher trophic level organisms, such as the Arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea), the walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), the polar bear (Ursus martimus), and various species of seals (such as Pusa hispida, Pagophilus groenlandicus, and Phoca largha), are indirectly dependent upon pelagic and benthic invertebrates. The rapid decline in sea ice over the past three decades has devastated both the polar bear and walrus populations, both of which are dependent on sea ice as hunting platforms. (Marine Ecosystem, n.d.). The Arctic ecosystem’s relative simplicity makes it sensitive to environmental disturbances such as climate change and increased levels of pollutants (Saundry, 2010). Increased Human Presence in the Arctic Coastal communities are faced with an ever-increasing threat: erosion. With the reduction of sea ice and the increase in sea level comes stronger waves and accelerated coastal erosion. With sea ice loss, trans-arctic trade will offer faster routes between the Pacific and Atlantic 6 oceans, drawing in increased industrial activity and population. The rapid coastal recession in coastal communities affected by human activity is of great concern to inhabitants, as well as active industries. As human presence in the Arctic increases, the importance of Arctic erosion will be amplified. Shishmaref is a prime example of an Alaskan coastal community currently in crisis due to coastal recession. Shishmaref is estimated to have lost hundreds of square meters of land, making it likely that the township will be forced to relocate. Rising temperatures have caused reduced sea ice as well as coastal permafrost melt, rendering the town more vulnerable to erosion, as well as increasing storm activity, which further erodes their coastline (Hassol, 2015). The Army Corps of Engineers has compared aerial photographs of Shishmaref, estimating that the shoreline recedes on average 0.82 to 2.7 meters annually; however, years with major storm activity have seen losses of up to 6.9 meters. Shishmaref has already moved dozens of buildings further inland and has extended their now 853 meter sea wall (Sheppard, 2015). Shishmaref is currently at risk of needing an air evacuation in the case of a storm. Robert Iyatunguk, the Shishmaref’s erosion coordinator, explains that “The storms are getting more frequent, the winds are getting stronger, the water is getting higher, and it’s noticeable to everyone in town. If we get 12-14 foot waves, this place is going to get wiped out in a matter of hours. We’re in panic mode because of how much ground we’re losing. If our airport gets flooded out, there goes our evacuation by plane.” The effects of coastal erosion are not limited to humanitarian interests; there is a financial reason to be concerned with coastal recession. Tuktoyaktuk is a Canadian port near the mouth of the Mackenzie River. Sixty percent of trade in the Northwest Territories goes through Tuktoyaktuk, a figure predicted to increase once Arctic sea ice has reduced enough to make the “Over-The-Top” route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans viable (Ruffilli, 2011). The 7 infrastructure currently in Tuktoyaktuk would have to be expanded to accommodate increased trans-Arctic trade traffic, but doing so would further weaken the already receding coastline of the port town. Erosion in Tuktoyaktuk has threatened both cultural and archeological sites, as well as caused the abandonment of a school and residential areas. As global warming continues and sea levels increase, erosion could render Tuktoyaktuk uninhabitable, nullifying its potential as a major port city in the near future. Multiple attempts have been made at constructing lasting protection, yet these protective structures have not withstood storm surges (Hassol, 2004).