New Brunswick Population Report April 2021 Table of Contents Provincial Overview ................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Natural Population Change ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Interprovincial Migration .................................................................................................................................................... 5 International Migration ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Sub-Provincial Population Estimates ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Components of Population Change .................................................................................................................................... 7 Appendices .............................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Appendix A: Population by Community/Municipality – New Brunswick – 2010 to 2020 .................................................. 9 Appendix B: Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 New Brunswick 1 Population Report Provincial Overview1 Year-over-Year Population Growth – 2019 to 2020 Nvt. +1.9% As of July 1, 2020, New Brunswick’s population was P.E.I. +1.5% estimated to be approximately 781,476, up 0.6% year- Y.T. +1.4% over-year. Growth was slightly dampened in 2019-2020 Alta. +1.4% due to the border restrictions that were put in place in Ont. +1.3% mid-March in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. B.C. +1.1% These restrictions resulted in fewer immigrants and non- N.S. +1.0% Que. permanent residents entering the province. The +0.9% Man. +0.7% pandemic will likely continue to limit population growth N.B. +0.6% through the end of 2021. Sask. +0.5% N.W.T. +0.3% While population growth in the province has remained N.L. -0.3% relatively modest in recent years, for a province that saw Canada +1.1% very little growth between the early-1990s and 2015, recent trends have represented a significant Declining fertility rates, increased life expectancy and improvement. Despite these recent positive trends the aging of the baby boom generation have all however, New Brunswick remains in a vulnerable contributed to the dramatic changes that have occurred position. to the structure of the province’s population over the past several decades. While this situation is not unique Population – New Brunswick to New Brunswick, these issues have been further 800,000 compounded in the province by consistently high levels 750,000 of net out-migration among youth and relatively low immigration levels. 700,000 650,000 Between 1980 and 2020, the percentage of New Brunswick’s population that was under the age of 15 fell 600,000 dramatically (from 25.3% to 14.3%), while the percentage of the population aged 55 years or older more than doubled (from 18.2% to 37.9%). These trends Population Growth by Five-Year Intervals – New are expected continue going forward (although at a Brunswick lessening pace). Based on Statistics Canada population projections, the number of individuals aged 55 years or 2015-2020 +3.0% older in New Brunswick is expected to exceed the 2010-2015 +0.8% number of individuals aged 15 to 54 by the early-to-mid 2005-2010 +0.7% 2040s. 2000-2005 -0.3% 1995-2000 -0.1% 1990-1995 +1.5% 1985-1990 +2.3% 1980-1985 +2.4% 1975-1980 +4.3% 1 Source(s): Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Estimates, Table 17-10-0005-01 and Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, Table 17-10-0057-01. New Brunswick Population Report 2 Distribution of Population by Age Group – New Median Age – 2020 Brunswick N.L. 47.4 80% N.B. 46.1 N.S. 45.0 60% P.E.I. 42.9 Que. 42.7 40% B.C. 42.2 Ont. 40.4 20% Y.T. 39.4 Sask. 37.8 0% Man. 37.6 Alta. 37.5 N.W.T. 35.5 0 to 14 years 15 to 54 years Nvt. 26.2 55 years and over Canada 40.9 As of 2020, at 46.1 years, New Brunswick’s population had the second highest median age among the provinces and territories, well above the national median of 40.9 years. The median age was slightly higher among New Brunswick’s female population (47.0 years) than its male population (45.1 years); a similar gap was seen across most of the country. Median Age – New Brunswick and Canada 50 46.1 40 40.9 30 20 New Brunswick Canada New Brunswick 3 Population Report Components of Population Change2 Natural Population Change Overview After peaking during the baby boom era (1946 to 1965), fertility rates across the country dropped considerably. At a provincial level, population change is based on three This shift was due to a number of factors including: factors: contraceptives becoming more effective and readily • Natural population change (i.e. births minus available, and women participating in higher education deaths); and the labour force at greater rates. Since the 1980s, • Interprovincial migration; and fertility rates have fluctuated slightly, but in general have • International migration. remained relatively low. Today, based on current fertility rates, women in New Brunswick will give birth to an Since the early-2000s international migration has average of 1.5 children in their lifetimes, well below the consistently been the main driver of population growth replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman. in New Brunswick. This has increasingly become the case Furthermore, while fertility rates in the province have in recent years, due to a rise in the number of deaths in remained fairly consistent in recent years, the number of the province (due to the aging of the baby boom and women of childbearing age has declined, resulting in pre-baby boom generations), a decrease in the number fewer overall births. of births, and immigration levels that have risen considerably. Between July 2019 and June 2020, there were 6,316 births in New Brunswick, a total that was 15% lower than A graph showing the components of population change the total seen during this same 12-month period 10 in New Brunswick between July 2005 and June 2020 can years prior. On the other hand, as the baby boom and be found below, while additional details and statistics pre-baby boom generations have aged into the senior- can be found in the sections that follow. age category, the number of deaths in the province has increased significantly in recent years. Between July Components of Population Change – New Brunswick 2019 and June 2020, there were 7,945 deaths in the 2019-20 province, up 26% from the total seen during this same 2018-19 12-month period 10 years prior. 2017-18 2016-17 Neither the number of births, nor the number of deaths 2015-16 in the province in 2019-2020 were significantly impacted 2014-15 by the pandemic. Through the end of June 2020, there 2013-14 2012-13 had been two deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the 2011-12 province. In terms of births, since births are the result of 2010-11 fertility behaviour nine months earlier, the effects of the 2009-10 pandemic on the number of births in the province will 2008-09 not be apparent until at least the fourth quarter of 2020. 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 Net Natural Change (Births - Deaths) Net Interprovincial Migration Net International Migration 2 Source(s): Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Estimates, Tables 17-10-0008-01, 17-10-0015-01, 17-10-0014-01 and 17-10-0022-01. New Brunswick Population Report 4 The number of deaths in the province has now exceeded When broken down by age group, it can be seen that the the number of births in six consecutive years, with this majority of interprovincial losses over this ten-year gap expected to continue to grow wider going forward. period were among the youth and core working-age The other Atlantic Provinces, Newfoundland and populations, with these losses only being partially offset Labrador (since 2011-12), Nova Scotia (since 2012-13) by net positive interprovincial migration totals for the and Prince Edward Island (since 2017-18) have also faced under-eighteen and 55 and over age categories: natural population declines in recent years. • A net gain of 1,134 individuals aged -1 to 17 Births and Deaths – New Brunswick • A net loss of 8,993 individuals aged 18 to 24 • A net loss of 4,842 individuals aged 25 to 54 10,000 • A net gain of 3,574 individuals aged 55 and over 8,000 In contrast to these longer-term trends however, New 6,000 Brunswick has now seen net positive interprovincial migration levels in four consecutive years, in large part 4,000 due to the recent economic downturn in Alberta. In 2,000 general, interprovincial