University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2009 An Uncertain Place In Uncertain Times: The South Caucasus Nathan Burns University of Central Florida Part of the Political Science Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Masters Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Burns, Nathan, "An Uncertain Place In Uncertain Times: The South Caucasus" (2009). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 4110. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/4110 AN UNCERTAIN PLACE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES: THE SOUTH CAUCASUS by NATHAN L. BURNS B.A. University of Central Florida, 2007 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Political Science in the College of Science at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Summer 2009 © 2009 Nathan L. Burns ii ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to address how geopolitical factors influence the foreign policies of states in the South Caucasus. Due to the recent Russia-Georgia War, this region is central to contemporary foreign policy, fueling discussions of a New Cold War between the US and Russia. With the explicit goal to provide policy relevant research on this critical region, the South Caucasus states (Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia) are examined in three separate case studies. Utilizing qualitative analysis of historical event data, each case examines the role of five different variables: energy resources, routes, demography, proximity, and state leadership. That research reveals several corollary relationships. First, demographic (ethnic/religious) cleavages are found to define the borders of separatist conflicts and to be positively correlated with state perceptions of threat that follow from the proximity of foreign powers to separatist regions. Energy resources and routes define economic conflict and are positively correlated with perceptions of threat resulting from the proximity of foreign powers to these strategic points. Finally, state leadership is correlated with the value placed on demographic groups, resources, and routes in the foreign policies of the South Caucasus states and the subsequent balance of threat behavior exhibited in each state‟s foreign policy orientation. These findings are consequential for the discipline of International Relations, demonstrating the contemporary relevance of geopolitical variables. Specifically, the synthesis of these variables provides significant explanations of where, with whom, and why conflicts have emerged in the South Caucasus. Answering those questions is a vital step toward furthering the relevance of academic research for policy makers. iii I would like to dedicate this work to all of those who have helped my along my way at UCF. I dedicate this work first to my family. Thank you for constantly urging me to pursue excellence and encouraging me along the way. As well, I would like to thank everyone in the division of University Relations. Thank you for your financial support of my graduate education, for encouraging me to put my courses first, and making me feel a part of the UCF family. Finally, I would like to dedicate this work to Dr. Sadri. Thank you for your mentoring, your teaching, your encouraging, and your friendship. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you, Dr. Sadri, for serving as my thesis chair. Your guidance and suggestions during this process have been invaluable, and your role in my academic career since undergrad has left an indelible mark. Thank you, Dr. Houghton, for serving on my committee. I greatly appreciated the extra time you took to listen to my ideas during the formative process. Thank you too for the role you have played in my academic career since undergrad. Thank you, Dr. Morales, for also serving on my committee. Your expertise on International Relations theory was of great value. Through my graduate years, your classes challenged and prepared me for this thesis. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 Thesis ................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Significance of Research ................................................................................................................................... 3 Research Question, Variables, & Hypotheses .................................................................................................. 4 Research Question ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Variables ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 Hypotheses ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Methodology...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Literature Review: Theoretical & Historical Foundations ............................................................................... 7 Geopolitics & Policy Relevance .................................................................................................................. 7 Notorious History & Modern Evolution of Geopolitical Thought............................................................ 10 Synthesizing a New Geopolitical Approach in the South Caucasus ......................................................... 15 Chapter 1 Endnotes ......................................................................................................................................... 23 CHAPTER 2: AZERBAIJAN ............................................................................................................................. 26 Geopolitical History of Azerbaijan in the Caucasus ...................................................................................... 27 Pre-Soviet Azerbaijan ................................................................................................................................ 27 Soviet Azerbaijan ....................................................................................................................................... 29 Azerbaijan & Independence ............................................................................................................................ 31 Nagorno-Karabakh ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Azerbaijan & Caspian Energy.................................................................................................................... 35 Demographic Trends & the Resurgence of Islam ..................................................................................... 38 Azerbaijan & Its Geopolitical Environment ................................................................................................... 40 Intra-Regional Neighbors: Armenia & Georgia ........................................................................................ 40 Extra-Regional Rivalry: Iran & Turkey ..................................................................................................... 42 Global Powers & the Region ..................................................................................................................... 46 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 55 Chapter 2 Endnotes ......................................................................................................................................... 58 CHAPTER 3: ARMENIA.................................................................................................................................... 63 Geopolitical History of Armenia in the Caucasus .......................................................................................... 63 Pre-Soviet Armenia .................................................................................................................................... 63 Soviet Armenia ........................................................................................................................................... 66 Armenia & Independence ............................................................................................................................... 68 Nagorno-Karabakh ..................................................................................................................................... 69 Armenia & Economic