The Findings of the IEEE 802.3 Industr y Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc IEEE 802 Plenary San Diego, CA, USA July 16, 2012 Presenters • John DDAmbrosia,’Ambrosia, Dell, IEEE 802.3 BWA Chair • Peter Anslow, Ciena, IEEE 802.3 BWA Editor • Mark Nowell, Cisco • Scott Kipp, Brocade • Peter Stassar, Huawei IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 2 Agenda • Introduction (John DDAmbrosia)’Ambrosia) • Findings – Overview (Mark Nowell) – The Data Center (Scott Kipp) – Transport Networks (Peter Stassar) • Summary (Peter Anslow) IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 3 Disclaimers • This presentation is a supplement to the IEEE Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment D1.2, which is pending final approval (this week) by the IEEE 802.3 Working Group • All contributed information is solely the perspective of the respective contibttributors. • The views expressed in the Assessment solely represent the views of the IEEE 802.3 Working Group, and do not necessarily represent a position of the IEEE, the IEEE Standards Association, or IEEE 802. IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 4 INTRODUCTION JOHN D’AMBROSIA, DELL IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 5 The 2006 HSSG Call‐For‐Interest The Ethernet Ecosystem Consumer Broadband Access Content Providers Broadband Internet Backbone ANtkAccess Networks NtNetwor ks Content Networks Internet Backbone Networks Research Enterprise Networks Networks Corporate Data Centers and Research, Education Enterprise and Government Facilities Internet eXchange and (High Performance (High Performance Interconnection Points Computing) Computing) July 18, 2006 Higher Speed Study Group CFI, V 1.01 20 San Diego, CA IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 6 The 2007 HSSG Tutorial Why Higher Speed Ethernet? Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere Increased # Increased Increased Bandwidth +=+ of users access services explosion rates and methods everywhere As demonstrated EFM, xDSL, YouTube, by the number of WiMax, BitT orrent, ISPs: Comcast, xPON, VOD, AOL, YahooBB, Cable, WiFi, Facebook, NTT, Cox, 3G/4G… Kazaa, Netflix, Easyy,g,Net, Rogers, iTunes, 2nd BT, ... life, Gaming… IEEE 802.3 Higher Speed Study Group - TUTORIAL 18 IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 7 Life after IEEE P802.3ba • End‐users through the prior HSSG: The next speed of 1,000,000 Ethernet must begin when 100GbE done! 100 Gigabit Ethernet 100,000 • HSSG Bandwidth Forecast for Core Networking 40 Gigabit Ethernet “Core Networking” Doubling ≈18 mos s // 10 Gigabit Ethernet – 2013: 400 Gb/s Mb 10,000 – 2015: 1 Tb/s Rate • Other bandwidth trends? Gigabit Ethernet 1,000 Server I/O • 2011 Formation of: Doubling ≈24 mos IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections 100 Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Date Hoc IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 8 IEEE 802.3 BWA Web & Reflector Information • Charter and Scope – Evaluate Ethernet wireline bandwidth needs of the industry – Reference material for a future activity – The role of this ad hoc is to gather information, not make recommendations or create a CFI • Webpage ‐ http://www. ieee802. org/3/ad_ hoc/bwa/index. html • Reflector ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/reflector.html • Public request for data ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/anslow_01a_0411.pdf IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 9 Summary of Data Submissions • Scott Kipp, Brocade, “Data Center Bandwidth Scenarios” – httpp//://www.ieee802.org/3/ ad_ hoc/ bwa /public /ma y11 /ki pp_01 _0511. pdf • Andy Bach, NYSE Euronext, “Bandwidth Demand in the Financial Industry ‐ The Growth Continues” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/jun11/bach_01a_0611.pdf • Kimball Brown, LightCounting, “Server Bandwidth Scenarios ‐ Signposts for 40G/100G Server Connections” – httpp//://www.ieee802.org/3/ ad_ hoc///p/j/bwa/public/jul11/brown__ 01a 0711.pdf • Tom Cloonan, Arris, “Bandwidth Trends on the Internet... A Cable Data Vendor's Perspective” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/cloonan_01a_0911.pdf • Scott Kipp, Brocade, “Storage Growth and Ethernet” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/kipp _01a _0911.pdf • Mark Nowell, Cisco, “Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast Update; 2010 ‐ 2015” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf • Petar Pepeljugoski and Paul Coteus, IBM, “Bandwidth needs in HPC taking into account link redundancy” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/pepeljugoski hoc/bwa/public/nov11/pepeljugoski_01 _1111.pdf • Huang Xi, Huawei, “Bandwidth Needs in Core and Aggregation nodes in the Optical Transport Network” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/huang_01_1111.pdf • Henk Steenman, AMS‐IX / Euro‐IX, “The European Peering Scene” – http://www. ieee802.org/3/ad _hoc/bwa/public/nov11/steenman _ 01_1111 . pdf • Lone Hansen, BSRIA, “Global Data Centres Presentation IEEE” – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/dec11/hansen_01_1211.pdf • Eli Dart, ESnet, “Data Intensive Science Impact on Networks” – http://www. ieee802.org/3/ad _hoc/bwa/public/dec11/dart _ 01_ 1211. pdf IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 10 Assessment Limitations • Assessment Duration: 18 months maximum – Limited study time – Prevent data from becoming dated – IfInforma tion provide d snapshthot at time of subiibmission • Past trends may not be an accurate predictor of the future – Emerging applications – Technology – Standardization Efforts – Will Ethernet cost per gigabit continue to decrease? • Underlying assumptions – Market adoption – Continuation of applications that require increasing bandwidth IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 11 FINDINGS IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 12 OVERVIEW MARK NOWELL, CISCO IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 13 The Equation Remains the Same Increased # Increased Increased BdidthBandwidth More Devices+=+ Faster Broadband Speeds of Access Key Services SpeedExplosion Increasing Users Rates and Growth MthdMethods Everywhere More Internet Users Factors More Rich Media Content Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 14 2015 Global Users and Network Connections North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 288 Million Users 314 Million Users 201 Million Users 222.2 Billion Networked Devices 232.3 Billion NtNetwork kded DiDevices 902 Million NtNetwork kded DiDevices Japan 116 Million Users 727 Million Networked Devices LiLatin AiAmerica Middle East & Afifrica Asia Pacific 260 Million Users 495 Million Users 1330 Million Users 1.3 Billion Networked Devices 1.3 Billion Networked Devices 5.8 Billion Networked Devices Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 15 Global Broadband Speed 2010‐2015 Aveeagerage br oadban d speed will ggorow 4X; from 7 to 28 Mbps North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe 3.7‐Fold growth 3.9‐Fold growth 3.3‐Fold growth 7.5 to 27 Mbps 9.2 to 36 Mbps 6.1 to 20 Mbps Japan 4.1‐Fold growth 15.5 to 64 Mbps Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 2.9‐Fold growth 2.5‐Fold growth 4.6‐Fold growth 2.8 to 8 Mbps 2.8 to 7 Mbps 5.5 to 25 Mbps Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page 16 US Cable Industry: Maximum Permitted Bandwidth Trends (Downstream) 100G The Era of Wideband 10G The past 29‐years show a Cable Modems 1G constant bandwidth increase of ~300 Mb/s ? ~1.5x every year... 200 Mb/s (b/s) 100M 50 Mb/s 12 Mb/s 10M Modems rr 5 Mb/s fo 1M 1 Mb/s 256 kb/s 512 kb/s 100k 56 kb/s 28 kb/s 128 kb/s 33 kb/s Bandwidth 10k 9.6 kb/s dd 14. 4 kb/s The Era of Cable Modems 2.4 kb/s 1k 1.2 kb/s Permitte 300 b/s The Era of DS 100 Dial‐Up Modems ax MM 10 1 Year 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/cloonan_01a_0911.pdf IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc July 2012 IEEE 802 Plenary, San Diego, CA, USA Page