Greater Birmingham and Solihull LEP Black Country Local Authorities Strategic Housing Needs Study Stage 3 Report Peter Brett Associates August 2015 Office Address: 16 Brewhouse Yard, Clerkenwell, London EC1V 4LJ T: +44 (0)207 566 8600 E: [email protected] Project Ref 29710 Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the client. This report has been prepared for the client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2015 THIS REPORT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING . ii Strategic Housing Needs Study Stage 3 Report CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 Study overview ............................................................................................................. 1 2 STAGE 2 FINDINGS UPDATED .................................................................................. 3 Geography ................................................................................................................... 3 Objectively assessed housing need ............................................................................. 4 Land supply .................................................................................................................. 9 3 SCENARIOS OVERVIEW ...........................................................................................14 4 INTENSIFICATION .....................................................................................................18 Introduction .................................................................................................................18 Background .................................................................................................................18 Derelict, vacant and undeveloped land ........................................................................18 Employment land ........................................................................................................19 Estate regeneration .....................................................................................................20 Higher urban densities ................................................................................................21 Land allocations ..........................................................................................................22 Summary .....................................................................................................................23 5 URBAN EXTENSIONS ...............................................................................................24 Introduction .................................................................................................................24 Previous proposals ......................................................................................................24 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................30 Summary .....................................................................................................................31 6 PUBLIC TRANSPORT CORRIDORS .........................................................................33 The rail network ...........................................................................................................33 Development capacity near stations ............................................................................36 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................40 Summary .....................................................................................................................42 7 FUTURE JOBS AND THE ENTERPRISE OPTION ....................................................44 Future job growth ........................................................................................................44 Aligning housing and jobs............................................................................................46 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................51 Summary .....................................................................................................................51 8 DISPERSED GROWTH ..............................................................................................52 August 2015 iii Strategic Housing Needs Study Stage 3 Report Introduction .................................................................................................................52 Distributing the shortfall ...............................................................................................53 Scale of growth ...........................................................................................................54 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................56 Summary .....................................................................................................................56 9 NEW TOWNS / NEW SETTLEMENTS .......................................................................58 Redditch New Town ....................................................................................................58 Additional new settlements ..........................................................................................60 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................63 Summary .....................................................................................................................64 10 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................66 Brownfield land ............................................................................................................66 Where could additional homes be? .............................................................................67 How can these new homes be delivered? ...................................................................68 Exports ........................................................................................................................70 TABLES Table 2.1 Housing need, 2011-31: two demographic projections ........................................... 7 Table 2.2 Housing need and supply, 2011-31 ......................................................................11 Table 7.1 Workplace job growth, Greater Birmingham HMA, 2011-31 ..................................45 Table 7.2 The Enterprise option ...........................................................................................47 FIGURES Figure 2.1 Difference in HRRs by age band in 2021 between CLG 2012 and CLG 2011, England 6 Figure 3.1 The Green Belt ....................................................................................................16 Figure 4.1 Intensification summary .......................................................................................23 Figure 5.1 Urban Extensions summary .................................................................................32 Figure 6.1 Public Transport Corridors summary ...................................................................43 Figure 7.1 Workplace jobs, Greater Birmingham HMA, 2001-31 ..........................................46 Figure 7.2 Enterprise Belt mapping ......................................................................................50 Figure 8.1 The West Midlands Built-up Area ........................................................................52 Figure 8.2 Population in ‘shire district main settlements’ .......................................................53 Figure 8.3 Illustrative distribution Dispersed Growth option ..................................................54 Figure 8.4 Estimated change in dwelling stock, selected settlements, 2001-11 ....................55 Figure 8.5 Dispersed Growth summary ................................................................................57 Figure 9.1 New Settlements summary ..................................................................................64 August 2015 iv Strategic Housing Needs Study Stage 3 Report 1 INTRODUCTION Study overview 1.1 This study was commissioned by the Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership (GBSLEP) and the Black Country Authorities. These commissioning bodies jointly cover the local authority areas of Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Cannock Chase, East Staffordshire, Lichfield, Redditch, Solihull, Tamworth, Wyre Forest, Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton. The study has three main purposes: to assess future housing need across the sub-regional housing market area in the plan period 2011-31; to compare it with the land supply currently identified; and, if supply falls short of need, to explore spatial options for meeting that shortfall. 1.2 The first two questions were