Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell February 11, 2020 1. The Big Picture No ceasefire from Geneva talks as LNA continues to gain political clout This week,, the UN-hosted 5+5 military commission talks Al-Mesmari’s statement reinforces the assessment that the in Geneva failed to turn the fragile truce brokered on 12 crisis has now entered a new stage of negotiations. Jan into a permanent ceasefire, despite some consensus Regardless, uncertainty is high and a return to full-blown reported at the negotiating table. The Libyan National military confrontation is possible in the medium term. The Army (LNA) and Government of National Accord (GNA) context of high uncertainty was highlighted by the US representatives held indirect consultations and a follow- Embassy in Libya’s statement voicing concerns over up meeting is now slated for 18 Feb, according to the head “significant military actions in the near future”. The Embassy of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan noted that actions, whether offensive or preemptive, would CONTENTS Salame. The UN political track is also facing significant violate the Berlin Conference’s outcomes. challenges after the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) rejected its structure and Meanwhile, after recently flexing its military muscle in Libya, 1 tribesmen from the East voiced frustration at Salame’s there have been no official Libya-related statements from the THE BIG PICTURE selection of representatives. Turkish presidency this week. Turkey could be feeling the pressure of isolation in Libya, but the scaled-down rhetoric No ceasefire from Geneva On the ground, a buildup of forces and skirmishes with from Ankara is likely only temporary and due to the renewed talks as LNA continues to gain heavy artillery shelling were reported intermittently focus on the Syrian crisis. Of note, the situation in Syria’s political clout throughout the week. While fighting has relatively Idlib has put the interests of Russia and Turkey at odds, subsided across frontlines, the week was dominated by although no significant change to the relationship between 2 reinforcements and mobilization across frontlines. Pro- the two is expected in the medium term. Turkey did, GNA forces continue to eye offensive operations to target however, signal that the showdown in the East NATIONWIDE SECURITY LNA positions. Analysts are of the view forces aligned to Mediterranean continues. Turkey’s presidential Events, Analysis and Data the Tripoli government are unlikely to remain idle and will spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin reiterated his government’s utilize their assets, especially given reports that the Syrian intent to push ahead with seismic research and drilling in the fighters are on the GNA’s payroll. maritime zone between Libya and Turkey. 3 SECURITY BY NUMBERS With this context in mind, LNA commander Khalifa Haftar Meanwhile, tribesmen are now gaining in strength and Charts, Statistics and Analysis continued to strengthen his political posture receiving political clout. Pro-LNA tribesmen are now clearly multiple high-level delegations in the East this week, articulating their demands to lift the blockade on terminals including the Algerian FM and Germany’s Ambassador. and oil fields; an unlikely scenario in the short term. Closely 4 Meanwhile, HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh attended an Arab following Salame’s call for more clarity on preconditions to TRIPOLI REPORT parliamentary gathering in Jordan whilst interim resume production, the Chairman of the Supreme Council of government FM Abdelhadi Al-Hweij met Morocco’s FM in the Azzwei tribe, Senussi Al-Haleeq, demanded the transfer News & Neighborhoods Rabat on 07 Feb. of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) HQ from Tripoli to Benghazi as per a decree issued in 1967. Al-Haleeq also 5 Haftar and the interim government are now sending a noted an upcoming meeting bringing together all Libyan BENGHAZI REPORT clear message that the parallel political push continues, tribes and social dignitaries in Tarhunah on 19 Feb and irrespective of the outcomes of Geneva or Cairo’s confirmed that an invitation was extended to the UN, EU, News & Neighborhoods economic track discussions. Turkey’s involvement in Arab League, and African Union (AU). The decision to move Libya enabled Haftar’s LNA and the interim government the NOC back to Benghazi is closely tied to the LNA and 6 to secure new alliances and strengthen existing ones. interim government's strategy to place bets on accessing The interim government is now confident that it can Libya’s oil and gas revenues and anchoring the eastern WHAT’S NEXT outmaneuver the GNA, whether from “within” by banking system to the international banking system. Of note, Forward Looking Expert mobilizing local tribes or by lobbying the international the LNA’s long-term objective is to reach a revenue sharing Opinions community to withdraw its recognition of the Tripoli arrangement to gain a level of control over Libya’s oil government. revenues and recognition/legitimacy as a capable security actor. Meanwhile, LNA spokesperson Ahmed Al-Mesmari stated in a briefing that the Libyan crisis is now a political and In relation to the widening divisions within the GNA, the diplomatic one that cannot simply be resolved with a rifle, context of negotiations is prompting hardliners nominally in a likely attempt to justify the lull in fighting to local aligned to the Tripoli government to “take matters into their audiences. Al-Mesmari’s briefing was politically-charged own hands” and double down on support for the war effort. and focused on Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Al- A focus on dismantling and disarming militias risks Mesmari’s briefing sought to reinforce the LNA’s exacerbating local tensions across the West and could result counterterrorism narrative and anti-Turkish invasion in infighting. rhetoric. Al-Mesmari added the LNA has chosen the truce to gradually expose Turkey and the GNA’s links to KEY POINTS terrorists to the international community. The LNA • Haftar receives multiple high-level delegations spokesperson then moved on to present evidence implicating Turkey and the GNA in terrorism in Libya. • Local tribes eye transfer of NOC to Benghazi • US Embassy cautions against renewed fighting Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. Whispering Bell February 11, 2020 2. National Security Map GNA attempt to regain Sirte fails to materialize; LNA & GNA reinforcements in Abu Grein Key THREAT INDICATORS Severe Threat An LNA airstrike targeted GNA-aligned Misrata forces in Al-Baghla area, south of Abu Grein, at High Threat approximately 1530hrs on 04 Feb. Initial reports indicate the targeted forces were affiliated with the Salah Badi-led Al-Sumood Brigade. Later Moderate Threat that night, reports indicate LNA airstrikes targeted Misrata forces in Wadi Zamzam and Abu Grein. The LNA airstrikes coincided with reports Misrata forces assigned the 166 EVENT INDICATORS Battalion led by Mohammed Al-Hsan to seize Al-Weshka and advance towards Sirte. The IED | VBIED offensive failed to materialize on the ground as of 10 Feb. Violent Clash Unidentified gunmen reportedly conducted a drive-by shooting resulting in the death of a man Isolated Gunfire in Zliten’s Sabaa area in the evening on 08 Feb. The incident would mark the third deadly drive-by Other shooting recorded in Zliten over the past week. Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a school principal resulting in his injury in front of Al- Reports indicate an LNA airstrike targeted GNA Qerdabiya School in Sabha’s Al-Qerda area in the positions in the Targhalat area, south of Khoms, afternoon on 04 Feb. Initial reports indicate a at approximately 1400hrs on 06 Feb. student’s father was behind the incident. The Unidentified assailant(s) conducted a drive-by attack on Sabha’s Al-Qerdabiya School came shooting resulting in the death of a man near amid reports from sources of a separate armed the “Indian Company” in Sabhā in the morning on attack targeting a school in Sabha’s Al-Jadid area 05 Feb. Initial reports indicate the involvement of and another targeting a school in the Brak area. the Gdadfa tribe. Some reports indicate the involvement of Islamic State (IS) militants. Reports allege a meeting was held inside the Sahara Bank in Al-Zawiya between several GNA According to the LNA’s Subul Al-Salam Battalion commanders from Al-Zawiya and Zuwara, as spokesperson, Ahmed Sultan, two suspected well as commanders under the GNA’s Western Chadian criminals involved in kidnapping, Military Region led by Osama Juwaili, on 05 Feb. extortion and murder cases were killed after The reports suggest the meeting was also skirmishes and engagement with the battalion attended by approximately six GNA-aligned near Kufra on 06 Feb. The clashes erupted after Turkish officers. The meeting allegedly resulted the battalion monitored the suspects’ movements in an agreement to secure Bridge 27 linking the during a desert mobile patrol in the area. A areas of Janzur, Zawiya and Wershiffanah; number of vehicles managed to flee, though the establish an operations room between Zawiya, battalion seized a vehicle belonging to the Surman and Juwaili’s forces; as well as draft a suspefted Chadian criminals. The battalion plan to launch an offensive on the LNA- continued to pursue the fleeing suspects.