MAY 2004 • DEPARTMENT FOR AFRICA Strategic Conflict Analysis Lake Victoria Region List of Contents Abbreviations ............................................................................... 5 1. Introduction ............................................................................. 7 1.1. Objectives and methodology........................................................ 7 Methodology material and timeframe ......................................... 8 Material ........................................................................................ 9 1.2. Theoretical framework ................................................................. 9 Conflict analysis – structural violence reduction ....................... 10 1.3. Outline of the report.................................................................. 12 2. A conflict analysis of the Lake Victoria Region ........................... 14 2.1. Physical description of Lake Victoria ........................................ 15 2.2. Lake Victoria from an ecological perspective ............................ 17 2.3. Lake Victoria from three national perspectives ......................... 18 Lake Victoria from a Ugandan perspective ............................... 19 Lake Victoria from a Kenyan perspective.................................. 21 Lake Victoria from a Tanzanian perspective ............................. 24 2.4. Lake Victoria from an East African perspective ........................ 29 Conflict dynamics in economic integration ............................... 30 Monetary and financial policy coordination.............................. 31 Taxation and trade tariffs ........................................................... 31 Conflict dynamics in the energy sector ...................................... 33 2.5. Conflict dynamics in the mining sector ..................................... 35 Market structures marginalise local actors................................. 37 Organisation of public administration ...................................... 38 Degradation of the environment ............................................... 39 2.6. Conflict dynamics in the fishing sector ...................................... 39 Market structures marginalise local actors................................. 40 Organisation of public administration ...................................... 41 Decreased biodiversity ............................................................... 42 Unsustainable fishing practices .................................................. 43 Decreased basin environment pollutes the lake ......................... 43 2.7. Brief actor reviews ..................................................................... 44 2.8. Lake Victoria from a Nile basin perspective .............................. 44 Increased water demand and conflict in the Nile basin............. 45 Lack of legitimate institutions for conflict mitigation in the Nile Basin ......................................................................... 48 The Nile Treaties ....................................................................... 48 Nile Basin Initiative .................................................................... 49 3. Cross cutting issues ................................................................ 52 3.1. Direct violence in the Lake Victoria Region .............................. 53 Direct violence threatening peace and stability in the region .... 53 Militarisation of societies in parts of the region ........................ 54 Refugees and internally displaced people .................................. 54 Arms trade —escalating conflicts .............................................. 56 3.2. Structural Violence .................................................................... 56 Poverty processes of exclusion and marginalisation .................. 56 Processes of exclusion and marginalisation — a source to political mobilisation ........................................... 57 Social stratification – marginalisation and frustration gaps ....... 58 Poverty – insecurity .................................................................... 58 Gender issues.............................................................................. 59 Children rights and violence ...................................................... 59 HIV/AIDS ................................................................................. 60 Crippled social service................................................................ 61 Infrastructure ............................................................................. 61 Natural resources ....................................................................... 62 3.3. Democratisation, governance, legitimacy and state building..... 63 Insufficient structures of governance and lack of democratic processes .................................................................. 63 Civil Society — trade unions not the least ................................. 63 The Political Society – democracy needs working political parties ........................................................................... 63 3.4. Nation-states under stress ........................................................... 64 The Ugandan state under stress................................................. 64 Reconstruction of the Sudan ..................................................... 64 Kenya – a nation-state? .............................................................. 64 Challenges to the nation state in Tanzania ................................ 65 The spread of religious fundamentalism — reawakening of the Zanzibari sultanate as a political vision? ......................... 65 Clashing cultures ........................................................................ 66 International capital: opportunity and challenges ..................... 66 3.5. Challenges from asymmetric regional integration ..................... 67 Different economic base – competing for small markets ........... 67 EAC is what the members make of it ........................................ 67 EAC caught in zero-sum power game ....................................... 68 Complex of regional organisations ............................................ 69 3.6 Production of knowledge and identities..................................... 69 Politics of identity....................................................................... 69 Media ......................................................................................... 69 4. Scenario Analysis .................................................................... 70 4.1. Worst-case scenario .................................................................... 70 Direct violence ........................................................................... 70 Structural Violence .................................................................... 71 Deficient democratisation, governance, legitimacy and state building ....................................................................... 71 Challenges from asymmetric regional integration ..................... 72 Lake Victoria issues .................................................................... 72 Global and (mega) regional issues .............................................. 73 4.2. A best-case scenario ................................................................... 74 Direct violence ........................................................................... 74 Structural violence ..................................................................... 74 Deficient democratisation, governance, legitimacy and state building ....................................................................... 75 Challenges from asymmetric regional integration ..................... 75 Lake Victoria issues .................................................................... 76 Global and (mega) regional issues .............................................. 76 4.3 Most realistic scenario ................................................................ 77 Direct violence ........................................................................... 77 Structural violence ..................................................................... 79 Deficient democratisation, governance, legitimacy and state building ....................................................................... 79 Challenges from asymmetric regional integration ..................... 80 Lake Victoria issues .................................................................... 80 Global and (mega) regional issues .............................................. 81 5. Options & recommendations .................................................... 82 5.1 S ources of conflict and challenges ahead – recommendations 83 Direct violence ........................................................................... 84 Structural violence ..................................................................... 84 Deficient democratisation, governance, legitimacy and state building ....................................................................... 85 Subsidiarity................................................................................. 85 Lake Victoria issues .................................................................... 87 Global and (mega) regional issues .............................................. 89 This document has been financed by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida. Sida does not necessarily share the views expressed in this material. Responsibility