Outpost: An In-Orbit Commercial Space Station Habitat Development Enabling Cost-Effective and Sustainable U.S. Presence in Low-Earth Orbit January 14, 2019 A Study for the Commercialization of Low Earth Orbit Contract Number 80JSC018C0024 NanoRacks, LLC Principal Investigator: 555 Forge River Road, Suite 120 Mr. Adrian Mangiuca Webster, Texas 77598 Email address: [email protected] Telephone: 248-495-7939 Outpost: An In-Orbit Commercial Space Station Habitat Development Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..............................................................................1 2 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................10 2.1 History.................................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Reasons for Study ................................................................................................................ 10 2.3 Scope of Study ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................... 12 3 METHODOLOGY .........................................................................................16 3.1 Summary of Technical Concept........................................................................................... 16 3.2 Involvement of Commercial Partners .................................................................................. 16 3.3 References to Requirements ................................................................................................ 17 3.4 Study Structure..................................................................................................................... 18 3.4.1 Commercial Partner Input ........................................................................................ 19 3.4.2 Study Topics and Responses .................................................................................... 19 3.4.3 Financial Model ....................................................................................................... 20 3.4.4 Policy Simulations ................................................................................................... 20 3.4.5 Overall Conclusions ................................................................................................. 20 4 PARTNER CONTRIBUTIONS ...................................................................21 5 DATA AND ANALYSIS ................................................................................22 5.1 Roadmap to Establish Enterprise in LEO ............................................................................ 22 5.1.1 Technical Concept ................................................................................................... 22 5.1.1.1 NanoRacks Outpost .................................................................................. 22 5.1.1.2 Schedule .................................................................................................... 24 5.1.1.3 Crew concept ............................................................................................ 25 5.1.1.4 Ground systems ......................................................................................... 27 5.1.1.5 Use of NASA resources ............................................................................ 29 5.1.1.6 EVA and robotics ...................................................................................... 31 5.1.1.7 Commercial approaches ............................................................................ 33 5.1.1.8 Conceptual enterprise................................................................................ 37 5.1.1.9 Related capabilities and services .............................................................. 41 NanoRacks, LLC ii December 12, 2018 Outpost: An In-Orbit Commercial Space Station Habitat Development 5.1.1.10 Benefits to U.S. human spaceflight........................................................... 45 5.1.1.11 Technical Risks ......................................................................................... 49 5.1.2 Business Case and Financial Viability ..................................................................... 52 5.1.2.1 Commercial offerings and future markets ................................................ 52 5.1.2.2 Cash flow summary .................................................................................. 62 5.1.2.3 Approach for investors .............................................................................. 63 5.1.2.4 Major suppliers ......................................................................................... 67 5.1.2.5 Balance of government vs. commercial revenue ...................................... 70 5.1.2.6 NASA contributions.................................................................................. 73 5.1.2.7 Liability and insurance .............................................................................. 76 5.1.2.8 Export control and intellectual property ................................................... 77 5.1.2.9 Risks, challenges, and barriers .................................................................. 80 5.1.2.10 ISS international partner considerations ................................................... 86 5.1.2.11 Current and future competitors ................................................................. 90 5.1.2.12 Impact on U.S. economy ........................................................................... 93 5.2 Role of Government ............................................................................................................. 96 5.2.1 Ideas for ISS transition............................................................................................. 98 5.2.2 Evolving ISS operations for commercialization .................................................... 102 5.2.3 Recommendations for Future Government Actions .............................................. 106 5.3 Financial Analysis Results ................................................................................................. 109 5.3.1 Explanation of Methodology and top-line assumptions ........................................ 109 5.3.2 Approach to Model ................................................................................................ 109 5.3.3 Model Revenue Elements ...................................................................................... 113 5.3.4 Additional Model Properties .................................................................................. 119 5.3.5 Forward Diligence ................................................................................................. 121 5.3.6 Base Conclusion..................................................................................................... 121 5.3.7 Illustrative Tables Supporting Conclusions in Section 6.2 .................................... 122 5.3.8 Model Summary under Base Case Assumptions ................................................... 125 5.3.9 Internal Model Bibliography.................................................................................. 128 5.4 Risk Analysis Results ........................................................................................................ 129 5.5 Policy Simulation and Associated Findings ...................................................................... 130 5.5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 130 5.5.2 Challenges & Limitations ...................................................................................... 130 5.5.3 Further Study ......................................................................................................... 130 NanoRacks, LLC iii December 12, 2018 Outpost: An In-Orbit Commercial Space Station Habitat Development 5.5.4 Scenarios ................................................................................................................ 131 5.5.4.1 IGA, Investment, CRS-2 ......................................................................... 131 5.5.4.2 Use of NASA Resources ......................................................................... 132 5.5.4.3 Allowable Nationalities .......................................................................... 133 5.5.5 Questions for Consideration .................................................................................. 133 5.5.6 Responses from NASA .......................................................................................... 136 5.5.6.1 IGA, Investment, CRS-2 ......................................................................... 136 5.5.6.2 Use of NASA Resources ......................................................................... 138 5.5.6.3 Allowable Nationalities .......................................................................... 140 5.5.7 NanoRacks Analysis .............................................................................................. 144 5.5.7.1 IGA, Investment, CRS-2 ......................................................................... 144 5.5.7.2 Use of NASA Resources ......................................................................... 146 5.5.7.3 Allowable Nationalities .........................................................................