Thursday, April 6, 2000 ! Volume 6, Number 28 Page 1 of 9 Poll gives O’Bannon The narrow 41-37% lead Howey !"#$%&"%'("$)'*$++'*,-.',&($/$&($&-) By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis The first NUVO-TeleResearch Poll of the 2000 cam- paign has revealed the Indiana governor's race to be a poten- Political tial barn burner. The statewide poll conducted from March 26 to April 2 (924 likely voters, +/- 3.2 margin of error) shows Gov. Frank O'Bannon leading Republican David Report McIntosh 41 to 37 percent, with 22 percent undecided. The silver lining for O'Bannon is that he is doing well The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink with the critical battleground voting group - independent Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is women - where he leads McIntosh by a 3 to 1 margin. an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the Among all independents, O'Bannon has a 39-27 percent lead political process in Indiana. with 34 percent undecided, running much stronger in the 219 Brian A. Howey, publisher and 812 area codes in northern and southern Indiana. In cen- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer tral Indiana, where McIntosh is much better known in the Jack E. Howey, editor Indianapolis media market, the independents were evenly divided. "That will be the key voting group and right now The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 O'Bannon has them," said pollster Jeff Lewis of Tele- PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-254-2405 Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 Research. "That 60 percent approval rating going into a re- election campaign is pretty good. [email protected] “That's got to be very encouraging for O'Bannon in www.howeypolitics.com looking where the undecided vote is going to go." Washington office: 202-775-3242 The governor also has a 60 percent "very favorable" Business Office: 317-254-0535. Pager: 317-320-2722 or "somewhat favorable" rating, compared to 47 percent for Daytime number: 317-254-2400, Ext. 273 McIntosh. On issues, "quality of public education" rated 36 per- Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or cent with voters, with "property tax reform" running second fax. Call 317-254-1533. at 31 percent. The other three issue questions included "ris- © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights ing prices and the economy" (15 percent), crime (13 per- reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or cent), and managing the evironment (5 percent). Again, the reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without Continued on page 2 consent of the publisher. “It’s a smear campaign. We know who started Ticker Tape: Bush-Gore poll p. 3 it, but I’m, not going to get into it...” Columnists: Taylor, Hammel, Jones p. 4 Perhaps: Letters on Bobby Knight p. 5 - Brian Kerns, 7th CD Republican, on reports Congress Watch: Bayh veepstakes p. 6 in The Hill and WTHR that he was behind in his Horse Race: Lugar/Johnson poll; child support, to the Terre Haute Tribune-Star Kerns’ bad week; p. 7-8 Thursday, April 6, 2000 Page 2 of 9 BUSH TOPS GORE: The Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll shows that Texas Gov. George W. Bush is leading Vice President Al Gore in Indiana, 54-36 percent. In the same poll, 81.3 percent of respondents said they favored moving the Indiana presidential primary to an earlier date. Also, President offer a sharp contrast to the Indianapolis Clinton’s fav/unfav rating Poll, from page 1 was 44.6 to 54.9 percent. Star/WTHR poll released last week. It had education issue is huge with the battle- O'Bannon leading 53.4 to 36.2 percent CARTER SUPPORTS CON- ground demographic - independent over McIntosh. But that poll conducted by SUMERS: Republican women. "That is a very important issue the Indiana University Center for Survey Attorney General candidate for them," Lewis said. It is territory that Research revealed no specific demograph- Steve Carter said that he McIntosh has already tried to carve out in ic information on gender or age. It noted would make telemarketing his TV ad campaign, having already spent that it had an 825-person scientifically legislation his “top priority” if elected. Carter said he thousands of points in all major Indiana random survey, but then said the head-to- would make it “free” for based markets. That issue has resulted in head numbers included only 650 people consumers to join the AG’s traction for McIntosh. who said they intended to vote. Then in “do not call” list. There is additional good news for Saturday's edition of The Star, a correc- McIntosh. In a head-to-head with Repub- tion was printed lowering Gov. O'Ban- GUIDE CORP. WANTS lican primary opponent John R. Price, O non's job approval rating from 61 percent GUIDANCE: The Indiana 'Bannon leads 52-23 percent, which will to 56.2 percent. The Star/WTHR poll had Department of Environmen- bolster the congressman's case that he will an error margin of 4.5 percent. tal Management last month subpoenaed records from be the best nominee for the party. The Star/WTHR Poll shows that Anderson's Guide Corp., the McIntosh is accomplishing some- only 9.8 percent are undecided (compared city of Anderson, General thing that former Gov. Otis Bowen ad- to 22 percent in the NUVO/TeleResearch), Motors, Ulrich Chemical and vised him to do last summer - bring home which is a very small percentage for the Heritage Environmental as Republican voters who have broken ranks early stages of a campaign. It makes even part of its investigation of over the past 12 years to vote for Evan less sense that the undecideds stood at a the White River winter Bayh and O'Bannon. The Democratic greater percentage - 14.6 percent - in the fishkill (Ken de la Bastide, governor is only drawing support from 7 Anderson Herald). On head-to-head with John R. Price, who percent of the Republicans, compared to Friday, the deadline for stands little chance of winning the prima- such action, Guide attorney the 22 percent he won in his 1996 upset ry. Star/WTHR had O’Bannon leading Art Kalleres said the compa- victory over Stephen Goldsmith. Price 66.9 to 17 percent. ny is asking a Marion McIntosh is attracting 9 percent of the TeleResearch has accurately fore- County court for guidelines Democrats, which is on par with what cast within the margin of error 13 out of as to what records needed Republican Sue Anne Gilroy received in 15 of its pre-election races (it predicted to be turned over to IDEM, the 1999 Indianapolis mayoral race. the winners in the other two), including and for the court to act as a referee in the matter. the 1999 Indianapolis mayoral race. Star differential TeleResearch accurately forecast that Continued on page 3 The NUVO/TeleResearch numbers O'Bannon would carry Marion County in Page 3 of 9 Thursday, April 6, 2000 1996 against Mayor Goldsmith and was cent is a stunning indictment on his ballot right on the money in the 1998 10th CD strength. David McIntosh is a congress- race . For a history of Tele-Research man who represents one-tenth of the polling, see www.howeypolitcs.com. entire state. To be at 37 percent in this poll is a testament to the hard work David Campaign reaction has done." PETERSON AIMS AT VIO- O'Bannon campaign manager Tom LENT VIDEOS: Indianapolis New said the NUVO/TeleResearch survey Death penalty Mayor Bart Peterson "is not consistent with any other poll I've NUVO/TeleResearch also asked unveiled two major initia- seen. I don't think the race is that close. likely voters statewide three questions on tives. He proposed his first We've never had an internal poll with the the death penalty: Would you prefer life ordinance as mayor, which would restrict access to vio- governor under 50 percent." sentences without the possibility of lent video games to chil- The poll was taken after McIntosh parole; do you favor reviewing the death dren. Peterson also had spent almost eight weeks in statewide penalty; or do you favor no change? The announced that city employ- TV advertising, touting his position on results revealed that 26 percent favored ees could take days off to education issues, including an advocacy life sentences without parole; 37 percent participate in school activi- of ending the ISTEP program for an annu- favored reviewing the death penalty; and ties. al one-day exam. McIntosh's name identi- 37 percent favored no change. fication has also risen to 75 percent in the Last month, Gov. O'Bannon SKILLMAN, KENLEY CHAIR NUVO/TeleResearch Poll, compared to 91 appointed a commission to review GOP PLATFORM: percent for the governor. Indiana's death penalty procedures. That Republican Chairman Mike McDaniel announced that came in the wake of Illinois Gov. George State Sens. Becky Skillman Late O’Bannon campaign Ryan's decision to suspend all death and Luke Kenley will chair Part of the disparity between the penalties after almost a dozen death row the state party platform two polls is that TeleResearch is finding convicts were freed when new evidence committee. The platform that McIntosh’s TV ad campaign is strik- came to light. Gov. O'Bannon has not sus- committee will have public ing a theme with voters, driving his name pended the use of the death penalty and hearings from 4 to 7 p.m. ID to 75 percent, while O’Bannon’s camp there is a scheduled execution in the near April 6 in Evansville at the Airport Mariott; 4 to 7 p.m.