RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH AREA FOCUS LEWISHAM, WEST HAM & TOTTENHAM HALE 2016 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET DRIVERS HELP TO BUY KEY FACTS OVERVIEW Changes to infrastructure, regeneration and affordability Tottenham Hale and Lewisham are both set to benefit from are three key themes which can drive the growth of local the next round of infrastructure housing markets. upgrades in London, and both areas are positioned within larger This report examines the opportunities capital’s economic shift eastwards, and regeneration zones provided in three geographically disparate is located a short journey from two new areas which are linked by these themes Elizabeth Line stations. and their development potential. Residential prices in and around These areas are also set to benefit from Tottenham Hale rose by 20% Tottenham Hale in the North East, larger regeneration and re-development in 2015 and have risen by 32% over West Ham in the East and Lewisham in plans, which are historically aligned with the two years to July 2016 the South East are poised to benefit from uplifts in pricing. In terms of pricing, the large-scale regeneration underpinned residential markets in these areas have by the potential for upgrades in local There are over 10,000 new homes outperformed not only Greater London transport infrastructure. in the planning pipeline with full average pricing but also prime central permission granted in Lewisham Tottenham Hale sits on the proposed London pricing, buoyed by the ‘ripple Crossrail 2 Line, while Lewisham will see effect’ out from central boroughs, but its connectivity further boosted by the also by the relative value on offer in House prices in West Ham are Bakerloo Extension. The new London these areas. among the lowest of any Zone 1 or 2 Mayor, Sadiq Khan, has pledged to The capital values in these areas also locations along the Jubilee line support both of these infrastructure mean that many buyers will be able to projects, and as the construction of the benefit from Government schemes Elizabeth Line (Crossrail) draws to a close designed to help them climb onto the there will be an increased appetite for new property ladder. The introduction of the large-scale infrastructure projects in the London Help To Buy Equity Loan is capital. It has been suggested that work examined in more detail on page 6. could start on Crossrail 2 in 2020, a year after the final parts of the Elizabeth Line Infrastructure, regeneration and become operational. West Ham, affordability – all factors whichCheshunt Knight meanwhile, has recently been “rezoned” Frank believes will underpin these from Zone 3 to Zone 2/3 to recognise the opportunity areas in the years to come.Essex Enfield FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 How price growth compares Future transport infrastructure Hertfordshire Essex 190 New Angel Road Southgate Haringey Crossrail / Elizabeth Line Alexandra Crossrail 2 (proposed) Harrow Palace 180 Barnet Tottenham Hale Bakerloo Line extension (proposed) Turnpike Redbridge Lane Chadwell Seven Heath Tottenham Hale HS2 (proposed) Sisters Waltham 170 Forest Islington Buckinghamshire Brent Camden Hackney 160 West Ham Dalston Barking Junction Euston and Dagenham Hillingdon Old Oak 150 St. Pancras Angel Tower Common Hamlets Newham Tottenham Ealing Court Road Lewisham West Paddington 140 Drayton Acton West Mainline Waterloo Index Ealing Victoria Langley Elephant & Castle Slough King’s Road 130 Kennington Old Kent Road 1 Abbey Unitary Authority Chelsea Wood Old Kent Road 2 Greenwich Battersea Nine Hounslow Elms New 120 Richmond Clapham Cross Gate Lewisham Heathrow Upon Thames Junction Airport Southwark 110 Wandsworth Lambeth Twickenham Catford Bridge Lewisham 100 Tooting Broadway Beckenham Kingston Wimbledon Junction 90 Hampton Merton Surrey Wick Bromley 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Elmers End Motspur Park Surbiton Tottenham Hale Lewisham Prime central Croydon Kingston Upon Bromley West Ham Inner London London Thames Worcester Park Sutton Hayes Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research Epsom Surrey 2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report Tottenham Hale which will house the Underground, Greater west and east London which have a similar Anglia trains and buses. There are also road travel time to central London (15 minute tube Tottenham Hale is positioned within network improvements and public realm journey to Oxford Street), as shown in figure 2. one of the largest regeneration schemes works being carried out, which are due to Already highly connected to central London, in London. The area is poised for the complete in 2017. Tottenham is also a direct 33-minute train potential benefits of large-scale The GLA’s own housing projections show journey to Stansted International Airport, placemaking and infrastructure that an additional 21,000 households will be meaning Europe is also within reach. improvements, coupled with good created in Haringey by 2026, a rise of 18%. affordability levels. Tottenham Hale is also on the preferred route This is a higher rate of growth than the 16% for Crossrail 2, the high-speed north-south Some 30 hectares of development and projected increase in households over the London rail line earmarked for completion in investment opportunities have been identified next decade for London as a whole and around Tottenham Hale by Haringey Borough equates to around 2,100 new households 2030, which will further augment the Council. The area also forms part of the being created every year. connectivity of the area. Knight Frank research shows that residential Upper Lea Valley regeneration plans – a joint There are currently around 4,600 new initiative with the GLA, TfL and four London homes with planning in the supply pipeline prices within a 10 minute walk of many boroughs which is set to deliver thousands of in Haringey. Some 2,000 of these are within stations on the Elizabeth Line, which runs new homes and jobs by 2025. schemes that are already under construction, west-east, have outperformed those in the In total, the council has committed to although these may not be completed for wider local boroughs since Royal Assent was building 5,000 new homes in Tottenham several years. granted in 2008. Hale as well as attracting new businesses This area will also have access to a larger part In 2015, Knight Frank identified Tottenham to support the creation of 4,000 new jobs. of demand as affordability levels are relatively Hale as a Development Hotspot within The regeneration is centred on improvements higher than other areas. Average property the capital with new-build property prices to transport links, with £110 million being values in Tottenham are lower than in other expected to outperform the wider invested in the refurbishment of a new station established residential neighbourhoods in London market. FIGURE 3 Average residential property prices within a 15 minute underground commute of Oxford Circus TOTTENHAM HALE ARCHWAY £580,217 £301,649 HAMPSTEAD £1,197,325 CANONBURY £721,155 BETHNAL GREEN £427,760 OXFORD CIRCUS £1,253,779 WHITE CITY £665,708 RIVER THAMES EARL’S COURT BERMONDSEY £1,087,582 £551,249 CLAPHAM NORTH £559,952 BRIXTON £425,061 Source: Knight Frank Research / Land Registry / TfL 3 AREA FOCUS 2016 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Lewisham FIGURE 4 Transport connectivity Thousands of new homes have been TFL PTAL map measuring distance to nearest public transport stop and service frequency earmarked for development in Lewisham, supported by the creation of new jobs and retail space. Public realm and infrastructure improvements are also planned to help boost the area’s appeal to a wider demographic. The population of Lewisham borough is forecast to grow by 10% between 2016 and 2026 above the 9% increase expected across London over the same period. The focus of the redevelopment in the coming years is in Lewisham Town Centre, Catford Town Centre and the Deptford New Cross area, all three of which have been identified as regeneration and growth areas by the borough council. The activity planned will help these localities further expand as residential districts, supported by good transport links to London’s primary business districts. Canary Wharf, the City and the West End are all reachable within 20 minutes via Dockland’s light railway and overland trains. Transport for London’s PTAL scoring system, Source: Knight Frank Research / Tfl which measures the distance to the nearest public transport stop and service frequency, gives Lewisham the highest possible score, FIGURE 5 making it among the best connected areas in Prices compared the capital. Average sales price (year to July 2016) The importance of locations which are close to transport hubs was underlined in Knight Frank’s Tenant Survey, the largest survey of private rented sector tenants ever conducted across the UK. This showed that more than 71% of those living in the capital said that this was a key factor when choosing a rental property. Plans to extend the Bakerloo line to Hayes in 2030 with stations at New Cross, Lewisham town centre and Catford, if approved, will open up this area of south east London further. Changes in transport infrastructure often attract inward investment, creating additional demand for housing and driving future development, regeneration and employment growth. Average property values in Lewisham are currently notably lower than those in other residential neighbourhoods with similar, or lower, transport accessibility, as shown in the maps opposite. There are over 10,000 new homes in the planning pipeline with full permission granted in Lewisham, with just under half of this total currently under construction. Source: Knight Frank Research / Land Registry 4 AREA FOCUS 2016 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH West Ham Furthermore, as shown in figure 7, house for a £344 million expansion that will include prices in West Ham are among the lowest extra passenger capacity and investment into Situated in one of the most active of any other Zone 1 or 2 locations along the the DLR to provide a more frequent service.