The 1.5 Billion People Question The 1.5 Billion People Question Food, Vouchers, or Cash Transfers? Harold Alderman, Ugo Gentilini, and Ruslan Yemtsov Editors © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 20 19 18 17 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division, Washington, DC 20540. No known restrictions on publication. Cover design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Washington, DC. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgments xv About the Editors and Authors xvii Abbreviations xxiii Chapter 1 The Evolution of Food as Social Assistance: An Overview 1 By Harold Alderman, Ugo Gentilini, and Ruslan Yemtsov Introduction 1 Unbundling Food-Based Social Assistance 4 Broad Directions of Change 10 Channels for Change 17 Steps Forward, Steps Not Taken 24 What’s Next for the Agenda? 31 Annex 1A. Summary Features of the Programs Examined in Six Countries 33 Notes 35 References 36 Chapter 2 The Public Distribution System in India: Policy Evolution and Program Delivery Trends 43 By Shrayana Bhattacharya, Vanita Leah Falcao, and Raghav Puri Introduction 43 The Targeted Public Distribution System in India: An Introduction 47 v vi CONTENTS Political Economy of Program Evolution: Balancing the Dual Roles of the TPDS 55 Enhanced Citizen Engagement: Using Rights and Judicial Intervention 67 Innovations in TPDS Delivery: The Role of State Governments, Technology, and Nutrition 72 Looking Forward: Challenges and Gaps 80 Lessons Learned 84 Annex 2A. Statistical Information 85 Notes 101 References 101 Chapter 3 The Tamween Food Subsidy System in Egypt: Evolution and Recent Implementation Reforms 107 By Moustafa Abdalla and Sherine Al-Shawarby Introduction 107 Tamween Food Subsidy System and Egypt’s Social Safety Net 109 Looking Back: The Evolution of the FSS in Egypt 114 Current Signs of a Transformation 120 Challenges of the New Food Subsidy System 128 Lessons Learned 131 Acknowledgments 132 Annex 3A. Milestones Related to Baladi Bread and Ration Cards 133 Annex 3B. Main Results of the Beneficiary Survey 143 Notes 148 References 149 Chapter 4 Food-Based Social Assistance Programs in Sri Lanka: Evolution and Transition to Cash Transfers 151 By Ganga Tilakaratna and Chinthani Sooriyamudali Introduction 151 Food Ration Scheme, 1942–79 152 Food Stamp Scheme, 1979–89 160 The Janasaviya Program, 1989–94 162 Samurdhi (Divineguma) Program, 1995–2015 164 Summary: The Transition from Food to Cash Transfers 171 Lessons Learned 175 Notes 176 References 176 CONTENTS vii Chapter 5 From Food Subsidies to Targeted Transfers in Mexico 179 By John Scott and Citlalli Hernández Introduction 179 Economic, Social, and Policy Context 181 Evolution of Food Subsidies 182 The Introduction and Expansion of Cash Transfers 189 Recent Developments 195 Distribution and Efficiency 197 Lessons Learned 202 Notes 205 References 205 Chapter 6 Evolution and Implementation of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the United States 209 By Victor Oliveira, Laura Tiehen, Mark Prell, and David Smallwood Introduction 209 Evolution of SNAP 214 Current SNAP Implementation 234 SNAP Outcomes 243 Proposals to Improve SNAP Recipients’ Nutrition and Health 247 Lessons Learned 251 Notes 253 References 256 Chapter 7 Evolution and Implementation of the Rastra Program in Indonesia 265 By Peter Timmer, Hastuti, and Sudarno Sumarto Introduction 265 The Historical Origins of Rastra 266 From Price Stability to Food Access: The Rastra Program 280 Lessons Learned 303 Notes 305 References 307 Boxes 2.1 Chhattisgarh and CORE PDS 73 2.2 Jan Dhan Yojana and the Direct Benefit Transfer Initiative 81 2.3 Considerations for Cash Delivery of Food Subsidies in India 82 viii CONTENTS 3.1 Fortification Program of Baladi Bread 114 3.2 Port Said Baladi Bread Pilot 121 3.3 Family Smartcard System 122 5.1 Diconsa and the Rural Food Supply Program 185 5.2 Evolution of PAL 191 5.3 Delivery of Voucher Benefits 196 6.1 Implications of the Form of Benefit 210 6.2 Who Makes SNAP Policy? 219 6.3 Implications of Operating through Normal Channels of Trade 221 6.4 FDPIR—An Alternative to the Food Stamp Program 224 6.5 The Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico 227 6.6 The Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program 232 6.7 SNAP Impacts on the Macroeconomy 233 6.8 Influencing the Take-Up Rate 239 6.9 Focusing on Nutrition: SNAP versus WIC 248 6.10 SNAP Monitoring and Research 253 Figures 1.1 Coverage of Social Assistance Programs in 108 Low- and Middle-Income Countries, Latest Available Data 6 1.2 Stylized Evolution of the Pathways of the Case Studies 10 1.3 Food Subsidy Coverage and Agriculture as a Share of GDP in Sri Lanka, 1960–2014 17 1.4 SNAP Participation, Poverty, and Unemployment in the United States, 1980–2014 25 2.1 Social Protection Expenditures in India, 2004–15 44 2.2 The Public Distribution System in India: Stakeholders and Responsibilities 48 2.3 Share of Households Purchasing Grain from the Public Distribution System in India, by State, Fiscal Years 2004–05 to 2011–12 51 2.4 Spatial Diversity of Trajectories in Coverage of the Targeted Public Distribution System across States in India, 2011–12 54 2.5 Food Grain Production in India, 1950–1991 59 2.6 Procurement, Offtake, and Stocks of Rice and Wheat in India, 1975–2010 61 2.7 Changes in the Amount of Food Grain Subsidy and the Public Distribution System in India, 1970–95 63 2.8 Minimum Support Prices and Central Issue Prices of Food Grain in India, 1976–2016 65 CONTENTS ix 2.9 Change in Coverage for All Income Groups versus Bottom 40 Percent in Low- and High-Income States in India, 2004–12 71 2A.1 Monthly Subsidy Transfer (Wheat and Rice) in Select States of India, 2004–05 and 2011–12 100 3.1 Structure of Subsidies, Grants, and Social Benefits as a Percentage of GDP in the Arab Republic of Egypt’s Budget, Fiscal Years 2012/13 to 2016/17 109 3.2 Structure of Commodity Subsidies in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Fiscal Years 2012–16 110 3.3 Impact of Food Subsidies on Poverty in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Fiscal Year 2010/11 112 3.4 Increases in Food Subsidies in the Arab Republic of Egypt, 1970–80 116 3.5 Food Subsidy Spending and the Fiscal Deficit in the Arab Republic of Egypt, 1980–99 118 3.6 Food Subsidy Costs in the Arab