Freight Mobility Plan December 2012 2012 Transforming Transportation for Tomorrow | Illinois State Transportation Plan 2012 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Freight Traffic Analysis .................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Freight Traffic Overview ................................................................................................................. 4 2.3 Directional Commodity Flow.......................................................................................................... 7 2.3.1 Outbound ................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3.2 Inbound .................................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.3 Intrastate ................................................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Commodity Flow between Illinois and Economic Regions ..................................................... 14 2.4.1 Growth by Trading Partner ................................................................................................... 15 2.5 Analysis by Mode ............................................................................................................................ 17 2.5.1 Truck ......................................................................................................................................... 17 2.5.2 Water ......................................................................................................................................... 33 2.5.3 Rail............................................................................................................................................. 44 2.5.4 Air .............................................................................................................................................. 45 2.6 Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 49 3.0 Freight Trends and Implications.................................................................................. 52 3.1 Overview of Trends and Implications ......................................................................................... 52 3.2 Trends in Bulk Commodities ........................................................................................................ 55 3.2.1 Illinois Coal .............................................................................................................................. 55 3.2.2 Illinois Grain ............................................................................................................................ 59 3.3 Expansion of the Panama Canal ................................................................................................... 65 3.3.1 Factors That May Influence Coastal Shifts ......................................................................... 65 3.3.2 Bulk Cargos: Coal and Grain................................................................................................. 72 3.4 Near-shoring, On-shoring and Supply Chain Risk..................................................................... 73 3.5 Change in Distribution and Retail ................................................................................................ 77 3.6 Freight Carriage Trends.................................................................................................................. 80 3.6.1 Emergence of Natural Gas-Fueled Trucking ..................................................................... 80 3.6.2 Truck Driver Capacity and Rail Intermodal Growth ........................................................ 82 4.0 Summary of Prior Studies ............................................................................................. 84 4.1 Northern Illinois and the Chicago Region .................................................................................. 85 4.1.1 Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning: Go To 2040 ................................................. 85 4.1.2 The Metropolis Freight Plan - Delivering the Goods ....................................................... 86 4.1.3 Illiana Corridor Study and Expressway Feasibility Study .................................................. 87 4.2 Central Illinois .................................................................................................................................. 87 4.2.1 Peoria/Pekin Urbanized Area Transportation Study 2010-2035 Long Range Transportation Plan ................................................................................................................................ 88 4.3 Southern Illinois .............................................................................................................................. 88 4.3.1 East-West Gateway Council of Governments: Legacy 2035 – Regional Long Range Transportation Plan ................................................................................................................................ 89 Illinois Long Range State Transportation Plan December 2012 Freight Mobility Page i Table of Contents (Continued) 5.0 Performance and Strategy ............................................................................................. 90 5.1 Safety ................................................................................................................................................. 95 5.2 Service Reliability ............................................................................................................................. 97 5.2.1 Heavy Truck Movements ....................................................................................................103 5.2.2 Industry Exposure to Bottlenecks ......................................................................................107 5.3 Air Quality ......................................................................................................................................117 5.4 Strategies .........................................................................................................................................124 5.4.1 Strategy: Implement Freight Performance Measures ......................................................124 5.4.2 Strategy: Enhance Knowledge of Industry Transportation Needs ...............................125 5.4.3 Strategy: Expand Multimodal Planning .............................................................................125 6.0 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 126 Appendix: Truck Model Documentation ............................................................................. 134 Illinois Long Range State Transportation Plan December 2012 Freight Mobility Plan Page ii 1.0 Introduction Freight movement is one of Illinois’ key industries. Illinois freight tonnage is the third largest in the country today, as it was a decade ago.1 Our State stands third in the nation for trucking volume and third in rail. Illinois is second in rail intermodal traffic, a vital component of U.S. global trade, and its total tonnage by all modes is the highest for states that are not located on a seacoast. Illinois is the linchpin of the American rail freight network, served by all seven of its Class I railroads, including the leading railroad serving Mexico and the two leading railroads serving Canada. Illinois stands at the juncture of the Ohio and Mississippi river systems, and via the Illinois River connects them to the Great Lakes and the Atlantic Ocean. Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport is an important air hub in the world, offering belly space in passenger aircraft to carry cargo all over the globe. Rockford’s airport houses a dedicated air cargo hub for the largest freight company in the world. While air freight appears very small by tonnage measures, it is critical to producers of high value goods. Even more importantly, the fail-safe network allows supply chains to compete aggressively with precision operations and tightly controlled inventory costs. Intermodal service is a principal advantage that Illinois brings to supply chain businesses; this advantage helps drive the State’s economy. Businesses are dependent on an integrated system of freight transportation and Illinois’ transportation network and freight services provide a full range of options. Despite the State’s top standing as a trucking center, the proportion of Illinois freight tonnage moved on its highways is less than the national average – 63 percent versus 74 percent for the U.S. – simply because others modes of transportation also are strong. Freight hubs are essential to Illinois’ position in the business logistics system. Originally because of its waterways, and then because industry and modal networks developed on similar patterns, Illinois is a national freight crossroads, bearing goods traffic from all directions. Over half of the truck miles traveled in Illinois begin and end somewhere else