MDG Achievement Fund Environment and Health Management for Climate Change in China Vol 2 –Health Impact, Adaptation Strategies and Research Priorities Ministry of Health, P.R.China Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety，China CDC Dec,2009 Table of content Executive summery .................................................................... 1 Preface ......................................................................................... 4 Chapter 1 Profile of Climate change in China..................... 8 Section 1 Climate change in China in the last 100 years ....... 9 1 Annual average air temperature ..................................................................... 9 2 Precipitation .................................................................................................... 10 3 Extreme climate/weather events .................................................................... 11 4 Sea level. ........................................................................................................... 17 5 Glaciers ............................................................................................................ 18 Section 2 The trend of climate warming in China .............. 18 Chapter 2 Impacts of Thermal Stress on human health .. 20 Section 1 Review of the impacts of climate change on human health .......................................................................................... 21 1 Impacts of temperature on total mortality ................................................ 22 2 Impacts of temperature on cardio-cerebrovascular diseases ................... 27 3 Impacts of temperature on respiratory diseases ....................................... 33 4 Impacts of temperature on other diseases ................................................. 35 5 Heatwaves and health .................................................................................. 39 6 Cold waves and health ................................................................................. 42 Section 2 Current gaps in knowledge and research needs for China .......................................................................................... 44 1 The current gaps in the research of temperature and health ..................... 44 i 2 The current gaps in the research of high temperature and heat waves ..... 45 3 Current gaps in the research about the impact of cold waves on health ... 46 Section 3 Adaptive strategies and suggestions .................... 46 1 Establishment of early warning and forecast system ............................... 47 2 Develop the related policy ........................................................................... 48 3 Develop health education and improve the public awareness ................. 50 4 Suggestions on future possible climate change adaptations in China ..... 50 Chapter 3 Climate Change and Infectious Diseases ............ 54 Section 1 Effects of Climate Change on Vector-born Diseases ...................................................................................... 57 1 Malaria .......................................................................................................... 58 2 Schistosomiasis ............................................................................................. 62 3 Dengue fever and other arthropod-borne infectious diseases .................. 66 4 Epidemic encephalitis B............................................................................... 67 5 Angiostrongyliasis ........................................................................................ 68 6 Other vector-borne diseases ........................................................................ 70 Section 2 Impacts on water-borne infectious diseases of climate change ............................................................................ 70 Section 3 Climate changes probably bring about new infectious disease ........................................................................ 71 Section 4 Adaptive Measures .............................................. 72 Section 5 Gaps and suggestions ........................................... 76 Chapter 4 Water Quality and Human Health ................... 79 Section1 Review ................................................................. 80 ii 1 Impact of climate change on water resources ........................................... 81 2 The health effects ......................................................................................... 94 Section 2 Gaps in knowledge ............................................. 104 Section 3 Adaptation measures and suggestions for future work ......................................................................................... 107 Chapter 5 Climate Change and Air Quality .................... 113 Section 1 Overview of Present Situation ........................... 113 1 Climate change and air quality ................................................................. 113 2 Health effect ................................................................................................ 126 Section 2 Gaps in knowledge ............................................. 129 Section 3 Adaptation measures ......................................... 131 1 Expedite the constitution and amendment of laws and regulations ...... 131 2 Developing air pollution monitoring ........................................................ 132 3 Ozone warning system ............................................................................... 133 4 Improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy mix ............................. 134 5 Strengthening education, training and propagation of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human health ................................................. 135 Chapter 6 Effects of Climate Change on Nutrition and Food Safety in China: Challenge and Strategy ................... 136 Section 1 Effects of Climate Change on Nutrition and Food Safety in China ......................................................................... 137 1 Effects of climate warming on crop qualities .......................................... 138 2 Effects of climate warming on agriculture climate, plant system and crop distributions .............................................................................................................. 138 3 Effects of climate warming on crop yields ............................................... 139 iii 4 Effects of climate warming on water for agriculture.............................. 143 Section 2 Diversity between China and other counties on climate warming researches ........................................................ 146 1 Strengthen the related safety researches ................................................. 146 2 Diversity on outputs of crops in different countries and regions .......... 147 3 Concerning the population with malnutrition ........................................ 147 4 The vulnerability to climate change in different regions ....................... 148 5 Effects of climate warming on foods ........................................................ 149 Section 3 Strategies in China ................................................ 149 1 Enhance adaptability for sustainable development ................................ 149 2 Weaken the sensibility of agriculture on climate change ....................... 150 3 Strengthen scientific researches on climate change ................................ 150 4 Strengthen researches of the effects of climate change on agriculture and food supply ................................................................................................................ 151 5 Enhance the public health system and researches related to climate change........................................................................................................................ 152 Chapter 7 Health impact countermeasures of Climate change in China ...................................................................... 154 Section 1 Health impacts adaptation of Climate change ..... 154 1 The environment—disease monitoring system ....................................... 155 2 The early-warning and forecasting system .............................................. 161 3 The preparedness response to health impacts of climate change .......... 168 Section2 Mitigation polices and achievements of climate change in China ....................................................................... 174 1 Countermeasures to climate change mitigation ...................................... 175 2 China’s Efforts and Achievements in Mitigating Climate Change ....... 175 iv Chapter 8 Conclusions ....................................................... 182 Section 1 Research and problems on health impacts of climate change in China ....................................................................... 182 Section 2 Adaptation strategy of climate change in China .. 184 Section 3 Uncertain about the health impact of climate change and key research priority ......................................................... 191 1 Uncertain about the impact of climate change on health .......................... 191 2 Research priority of health impacts of climate change ............................. 192 Reference................................................................................. 197 v Executive summery Climate is not only important natural resources but also a component of the ecological environment and human society. Since the