Better Risk Information for Smarter Investments177°30'E 178°0'E 178°30'E River Network 17°30'S 17°30'S 18°0'S 18°0'S CATASTROPHE RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 177°30'E 178°0'E 178°30'E © 2013 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved This publication is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Designer: Miki Fernandez Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) Better Risk Information for Smarter Investments Risk Assessment - Summary Report CATASTROPHE RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 3 Acknowledgements he Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) is a joint initiative between the World Bank, the Secretariat of the Pacific Community through its Applied Geoscience & Technology Division T(SPC/SOPAC), and the Asian Development Bank, with financial support from the Government of Japan, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the European Union (ACP-EU) and with technical inputs from GNS Science, Geoscience Australia, and AIR Worldwide. This report has been prepared by a World Bank team led by Iain Shuker and Olivier Mahul, comprising of Michael Bonte-Grapentin, Emilia Battaglini, Abigail Baca, Sandra Schuster, Cynthia Dharmajaya, and Sevara Atamuratova; an SPC/SOPAC team led by Mosese Sikivou, comprising of Litea Biukoto and Samantha Cook, and an ADB team led by Edy Brotoisworo and Jay Roop. The technical materials used in this report were produced by a team from AIR Worldwide led by Paolo Bazzurro, comprising Jaesung Park, Ivan Gomez, Bishwa Pandey, Daniel Duggan, Brent Poliquin and Yufang Rong. A team from GNS Science New Zealand led by Phil Glassey, provided ground truthing to the data used in the analysis. A team from Geoscience Australia, comprising of John Schneider and Alanna Simpson, provided technical support and advice throughout the project. The report greatly benefited from data, information and other invaluable contributions made by the Pacific Island Countries, development partners, donor partners and private sector partners. The team greatly appreciates the support and guidance received from Charles Feinstein, Ferid Belhaj, John Roome, Loic Chiquier, Francis Ghesquiere, and Abhas Jha. Table of Contents Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................3 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................7 Abbreviations and Acronyms .....................................................................................................9 Outline, Objectives and Outputs ..............................................................................................10 Catastrophe Risk Modeling ......................................................................................................12 1. Exposure Information ..........................................................................................................12 1.1 Population .....................................................................................................................12 1.2 Buildings .......................................................................................................................14 a. Locations .....................................................................................................................14 b. Field Surveys ................................................................................................................16 c. Occupancy Type and Construction Characteristics ........................................................18 d. Replacement Cost .......................................................................................................20 1.3 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................22 1.4 Crops ............................................................................................................................24 1.5 Replacement Costs by Country ......................................................................................30 2. Hazard Assessment ..............................................................................................................31 2.1 Tropical Cyclone Event Generation .................................................................................32 2.2 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Calculation ............................................................................35 a. Induced Winds ............................................................................................................35 b. Rainfall-Induced Inland Flood .......................................................................................38 c. Coastal Flood ...............................................................................................................39 2.3 Earthquake Event Generation ........................................................................................39 2.4 Earthquake Intensity Calculation ....................................................................................47 a. Ground Shaking ..........................................................................................................47 b. Tsunami Waves ............................................................................................................48 2.5 Ancillary GIS Data ..........................................................................................................50 3. Damage Estimation .............................................................................................................53 3.1 Consequence Database .................................................................................................53 a. Data Sources ...............................................................................................................53 b. Explanation of Data Fields ...........................................................................................55 c. Economic Loss Trending ...............................................................................................56 d. Database Statistics .......................................................................................................56 6 Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) 3.2 Damage Functions .........................................................................................................59 a. Buildings .....................................................................................................................60 b. Emergency Losses ........................................................................................................62 c. Infrastructure Assets ....................................................................................................63 d. Crops ..........................................................................................................................63 e. Fatalities and Injuries ...................................................................................................63 4. Country Catastrophe Risk Profiles ........................................................................................67 5. The Pacific Risk Information System (PacRIS) ........................................................................74 6. Applications ........................................................................................................................75 6.1 Post Disaster Response Capacity and Disaster Risk Financing ..........................................76 6.2 Disaster Risk Reduction and Urban/Infrastructure Spatial Planning ..................................76 6.3 Post-Disaster Assistance and Assessment .......................................................................76 6.4 Early Warning Systems and DRR Communication ...........................................................77 6.5 Reporting and Monitoring Agencies