eNergetics 2015 1st Virtual International Conference on Science, Technology and Management in Energy Proceedings Editors: Janjić, A., Stajić, Z. Publishers: Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia; Mathematical Institute SASA, Belgrade, Serbia Serbia, Niš, 02-03 July, 2015 eNergetics 2015 1st Virtual International Conference on Science, Technology and Management in Energy Proceedings Editors: Janjić, A., Stajić, Z. Publishers: Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia; Mathematical Institute SASA, Belgrade, Serbia Serbia, Niš, 02-03 July, 2015 Proceedings of 1st Virtual International Conference on Science, Technology and Management in Energy Serbia, Niš, 02-03 July, 2015 Editors: Prof. Dr. Aleksandar Janjić and Prof. Dr. Zoran Stajić Technical Editor: Dr. Lazar Z. Velimirović Published by: Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia, and Mathematical Institute SASA, Belgrade, Serbia Printed by: Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia, and Mathematical Institute SASA, Belgrade, Serbia Number of copies printed: 100 Printing of this edition has been financially supported by Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development ISBN 978-86-80593-54-8 CIP - Каталогизација у публикацији Народна библиотека Србије, Београд 620.9(082) VIRTUAL International Conference on Science Technology and Management in Energy (1 ; Niš ; 2015) Energetics 2015 = Proceedings / 1st Virtual International Conference on Science Technology and Management in Energy, Niš, 02-03 July 2015 ; editors Janjić [Aleksandar], Stajić [Zoran]. - Niš : Research and Development Centar "Alfatec", 2015 (Niš : Research and Development Centar "Alfatec"). - 99 str. : ilustr. ; 26 cm Tiraž 100. - Abstracts. - Bibliografija uz svaki rad. - Registar. ISBN 978-86-80593-54-8 a) Енергетика - Зборници COBISS.SR-ID 218611724 1st Virtual International Conference on Science, Technology and Management in Energy organized by Research and Development Center “ALFATEC” Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts Faculty of Electronic Engineering Niš Complex System Research Centre Academy of Sciences and Arts of Republic of Srpska supporter: Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development Program Committee Chair: Prof. Dr. Aleksandar Janjić, Faculty of Electronic Engineering, Niš, Serbia Members: Prof. Dr. Zoran Stajić, Faculty of Electronic Engineering, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Miomir Stanković, Faculty of Occupational Safety, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Zoran Ognjanović, Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, Serbia Prof. Dr. Bojan Srđević, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, Serbia Prof. Dr. Radomir Stanković, Faculty of Electronic Engineering, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Suzana Savić, Faculty of Occupational Safety, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Milan Gocić, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Mileta Janjić, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Podgorica, Montenegro Prof. Dr. Zdravko Milovanović, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina Prof. Dr. Marko Serafimov, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia Prof. Dr. Miloš Jelić, Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Velimir Stefanović, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Jovica Milanović, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, UK Prof. Dr. Krsto Miljanović, Agromediterranean Faculty, Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina Prof. Dr. Niko Majdandžić, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Slavonski Brod, Croatia Prof. Dr. Zoran Jovanović, Faculty of Electronic Engineering, Niš, Serbia Prof. Dr. Enver Agić, Public Enterprise Electric Utility of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina Dr. Lazar Velimirović, Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, Serbia Organizing Committee Chair: Prof. Dr. Miomir Stanković, Faculty of Occupational Safety, Niš, Serbia Members: Prof. Dr. Zoran Stajić, Faculty of Electronic Engineering, Niš, Serbia Dr. Lazar Velimirović, Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, Serbia Ljubiša Stajić, Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia Biserka Mijucić, Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia Tanja Petrović, Research and Development Center “ALFATEC”, Niš, Serbia Table of Contents Hybrid Ensemble Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting......................................................................................................3 Miloš Božić, Zoran Stajić, Nikola Milosavljević Solar Energy Potential in Serbia and Possible Effects of Solar Plants on the Environment.............................................................................................9 Dragan Antić, Snežana Antolović, Ana Stanković The Effect of Optical Errors on the Absorbed Flux of a Paraboloidal Solar Dish Mounted Spiral Heat Absorber................................................18 Saša Pavlović, Velimir Stefanović, Zoran Stamenković EU Legislation in the Field of Protection of the Environment and Climate Change for Electrical Energy Sector............................................24 Slađana Mirjanić PROMETHEE Method for the Multi-criteria Decision Models in Determination of Maintenance Policy........................................................33 Bojan Kojičić, Aleksandar Janjić On-Line LS-SVM Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting...................39 Miloš Božić, Marko Milošević Analysis of Household Coal Consumption in Serbia Based on Grey System Theory and K-means Clustering (Base for Distribution Network Optimization)................................................................................................45 Zoran Gligorić, Svetlana Štrbac-Savić, Miloš Gligorić, Čedomir Beljić Android Voice Control in Energy Efficient Objects with the Use of Raspberry Pi Platform.................................................................................49 Danijela Stajić, Jovan Krstić, Aleksandar Gošić Renewable Energy Sources Construction Small Hydro Power Plant "Zlaca" Banovići..........................................................................................57 Enver Agić, Mirza Atić, Bahrudin Šarić, Thermo-Visual Diagnostics for Increasing Energy Efficiency in Bakery Production Lines...........................................................................................64 Dragan Antić, Ivan Krstić, Bojan Bijelić Microgrids in Power Industry of Serbia: possibilities and challenges....70 Dragan Stevanović, Aleksandar Janjić The Impact of the Thermal Impulse to the Electric Arc’s Appearance at the Example of Motor’s Start......................................................................75 Nenad Floranović, Milica Rašić, Zoran Stajić Multi-criteria Location Selection for Mini Hydroelectric Power Plants..............................................................................................................83 Milan Cvetković, Slavica Cvetković Analysis of One Parameter Global Solar Radiation Models for Serbia.............................................................................................................88 Mladen Milanović, Milan Gocić, Slaviša Trajković Influence of Different Types of Dust on PV Modules Energy Efficiency.......................................................................................................94 Ivana Radonjić, Tomislav Pavlović, Dragana Milosavljević, Dragoljub Mirjanić, Lana Pantić, Danica Piršl The Advantages of the Linear Prognosis than Peak Load Limiter in Manufacturing Plant..................................................................................100 Zoran Jovanović, Marko Milošević, Danijela Stajić, Thursday, July 2th, 2015 eNergetics 2015 Hybrid Ensemble Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Miloš Božić, R&D Center ALFATEC, Niš, Serbia, [email protected] Zoran Stajić, R&D Center ALFATEC, Niš, Serbia, [email protected] Nikola Milosavljević, Electrical Utility “Centar”, Kragujevac, Serbia, [email protected] Abstract—Electric load is a random non- equipment failures and blackouts, correct and stationary process influenced by a number of timely decisions are needed. Generation factors which makes it difficult to model. To capacity scheduling, generator maintenance achieve better forecasting accuracy, a wide scheduling, scheduling of fuel and coal variety of models have been proposed. This purchases, coordination of hydro-thermal paper presents a hybrid ensemble model for systems, system security analysis, energy short-term load forecasting based on three transaction planning, load flow analysis and base estimators: double seasonal ARIMA so on are tasks which rely on accurate STLF model, artificial neural network and least [1]. On the other hand, electric load is a square support vector machines. The random non-stationary process which is effectiveness of the presented model is shown on real electrical load data of the City of Niš. influenced by a number of factors, including: The obtained results confirm the validity economic factors, time, day, season, weather advantage of the proposed approach. and random effects, all of which leads to load forecasting being a challenging subject of Keywords: load forecasting, ensemble metod, inquiry. machine learning During the past few decades, a wide I. INTRODUCTION variety of models have been proposed for the improvement of STLF accuracy. With the deregulation of the energy Conventional methods include: linear market and with