3514120A-BEE AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE ENERGY MASTERPLANNING REPORT TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CONFIDENTIAL MAY 2016 AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE ENERGY MASTERPLANNING REPORT FINAL ISSUE South Gloucestershire Council Revision 2 Confidential Project no: 3514120A-BEE Date: May 2016 WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff WSP House 70 Chancery Lane London WC2 1AF Tel: 020 7314 5000 www.wspgroup.com www.pbworld.com QUALITY MANAGEMENT ISSUE/REVISION FIRST ISSUE REVISION 1 REVISION 2 REVISION 3 Remarks Draft for comment Comments Further comments addressed addressed Date 24/12/16 11/02/16 01/04/16 Prepared by Laurie Eldridge Laurie Eldridge Laurie Eldridge Signature Checked by Andrew Goodman Andrew Goodman Andrew Goodman Bruce Geldard Bruce Geldard Signature Authorised by Signature Project number 3514120A-BEE 3514120A-BEE 3514120A-BEE Report number File reference ii PRODUCTION TEAM WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF Project Engineer Laurie Eldridge Senior Project Engineer Andrew Goodman Technical Director Bruce Geldard Avonmouth Severnside Energy Masterplanning Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff South Gloucestershire Council Project No: 3514120A-BEE Confidential iii TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................1 2 HEAT DEMAND SUMMARY ........................................................2 2.1 Cribbs Patchway............................................................................ 2 2.2 New Earth to Accolade Wines ........................................................ 3 2.3 Southmead .................................................................................... 3 2.4 UWE.............................................................................................. 4 3 HEAT DEMAND PROFILING .......................................................5 4 PIPELINE MODELLING ...............................................................8 4.1 Estimation of peaks ....................................................................... 8 4.2 Pipeline modelling ........................................................................11 4.3 Outputs ........................................................................................12 5 CHP SIZING................................................................................17 5.1 New Earth Solutions .....................................................................18 6 THERMAL STORE SELECTION ................................................20 7 OTHER TECHNICAL INPUT TO THE MODELLING ..................23 7.1 Carbon Factors .............................................................................23 7.2 Restrictions on number of starts....................................................23 7.3 Boiler Efficiencies .........................................................................23 7.4 Energy Centre Parasitic Loads......................................................23 8 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ..............................................................24 8.1 Rationale ......................................................................................24 8.2 Capex ...........................................................................................24 8.3 CHP CAPEX and maintenance .....................................................24 8.4 Energy centre size ........................................................................25 8.5 Consumer side costs ....................................................................25 8.6 New development heat networks ..................................................26 8.7 Other capex ..................................................................................26 8.8 Summary of CAPEX .....................................................................26 8.9 Maintenance .................................................................................27 8.10 Replacement costs (Repex) ..........................................................27 Avonmouth Severnside Energy Masterplanning Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff South Gloucestershire Council Project No 3514120A-BEE Confidential iv 8.11 Operating income .........................................................................28 8.12 Consumer unit maintenance, metering and billing costs ................29 8.13 Heat Sales Prices .........................................................................29 8.14 Electricity sales .............................................................................30 8.15 Electrical import and gas...............................................................30 8.16 Purchase of heat from New earth Solutions ..................................31 8.17 Variation through time...................................................................31 8.18 CRC and other carbon taxation schemes ......................................31 8.19 RHI ...............................................................................................31 9 FINANCIAL RESULTS ...............................................................32 9.1 Cribbs...........................................................................................32 9.2 New Earth Solutions .....................................................................32 9.3 Southmead ...................................................................................33 9.4 UWE.............................................................................................34 10 SENSITIVITY TO KEY LOADS – UWE NETWORK ...................35 10.1 Introduction – linear heat density modelling...................................35 10.2 Linear heat density results ............................................................35 10.3 Load Profiling ...............................................................................37 10.4 Pipeline Modelling ........................................................................37 10.5 CHP modelling .............................................................................38 10.6 Financial inputs.............................................................................39 10.7 Energy centre size ........................................................................39 10.8 Consumer side costs ....................................................................39 10.9 Summary of CAPEX .....................................................................39 10.10 Financial results............................................................................40 11 SOUTHMEAD NETWORK – FURTHER ANALYSIS .................41 12 FINANCIAL SENSITIVITY ..........................................................43 12.1 Energy costs / Prices ....................................................................43 12.2 Effect of RHI .................................................................................43 13 CARBON SAVINGS ...................................................................44 14 CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................45 15 STRATEGIC NETWORK ASSESSMENT ..................................46 15.1 Introduction ..................................................................................46 Avonmouth Severnside Energy Masterplanning Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff South Gloucestershire Council Project No 3514120A-BEE Confidential v 15.2 Methodology .................................................................................46 15.3 Heat Supply – Capacity and Costs ................................................46 15.4 Heat Loads and Network Route ....................................................48 15.5 Capital Cost Estimates..................................................................52 15.6 Potential Volume Of Heat Supply ..................................................59 15.7 Value Of Heat Supply ...................................................................60 15.8 Potential Return On Investment And Carbon Savings ...................60 16 APPENDIX A: HEAT DEMAND PROFILES ...............................65 17 APPENDIX B: CONSUMER SIDE COST SUMMARY ...............78 18 APPENDIX C: PHASED AVONMOUTH SEVERNSIDE NETWORK DEVELOPMENT .....................................................80 19 APPENDIX D: PROCESS STEAM USE IN THE VICINITY OF SERC ..........................................................................................87 20 APPENDIX E: NEW EARTH SOLUTIONS .................................89 20.1 Business Changes ........................................................................89 Avonmouth Severnside Energy Masterplanning Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff South Gloucestershire Council Project No 3514120A-BEE Confidential vi TABLES TABLE 2-1: HEAT DEMANDS CRIBBS PATCHWAY ......................................................... 2 TABLE 2-2: BENCHMARKED HEAT DEMANDS – CRIBBS PATCHWAY .......................... 3 TABLE 2-3: HEAT DEMANDS – NEW EARTH TO ACCOLADE WINES ............................. 3 TABLE 2-4: HEAT DEMANDS - SOUTHMEAD .................................................................. 3 TABLE 2-5: BENCHMARKED HEAT DEMANDS -SOUTHMEAD ....................................... 4 TABLE 2-6: HEAT DEMANDS - UWE ................................................................................ 4 TABLE 2-7: BENCHMARKED HEAT DEMANDS - UWE .................................................... 4 TABLE 4-1: SUMMARY OF LOAD FACTORS .................................................................... 8 TABLE 4-2: CRIBBS PATCHWAY PEAK HEAT DEMANDS .............................................. 8 TABLE 4-3: ACCOLADE WINES HEAT PEAK DEMANDS ................................................