COVID19 IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION Produced by the NYC Department of City Planning’s Transportation Division October 6, 2020 October 6, 2020 Introduction • The NYC Department of City Planning's Transportation Division is compiling data to help understand the effects of COVID19 on the transportation network. This report and all prior reports beginning in April 2020 can be found at https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/planning-level/transportation/transportation-overview.page • This week’s report includes the following information: 1. Executive Summary 2. Citywide Trends 3. MTA: Subway and Bus 4. MTA: Metro North Railroad, Long Island Rail Road, Access-A-Ride 5. Ferry 6. Traffic 7. Citi Bike 8. Timeline • This report may serve to help in pandemic response and longer-term recovery. We are eager for feedback in how to make this more useful. Feel free to reach out to Laura Smith ([email protected]) with questions or comments. October 6, 2020 2 Executive Summary • Gains in travel across different modes have been substantial, but distributed unevenly, since the mid-April low. The modes showing the greatest gains since April are those that experienced the greatest declines at the start of the pandemic. • After a substantial post-Labor day increase, weekday subway ridership has stabilized, and ridership during the week of September 28 was up only 2 percent over the week of September 14. • The city’s business districts in midtown and lower Manhattan, downtown Brooklyn, and Long Island City continue to see less than a quarter of their PM peak subway entries, indicating a very limited return to work in those areas. • Year over year, the greatest ridership differences are currently seen in neighborhoods with the strongest likelihood of having telework-capable populations, including much of Manhattan, Downtown Brooklyn, Williamsburg, Long Island City, and Astoria. • Since the start of September, the Staten Island Ferry has recovered an average of 36 percent of its daily ridership, compared to 2019 levels. Weekday peak hour ridership for the two-week period of September 21 to October 4 remains an hour earlier than what it was last year at this time. • Total average weekday daytime inbound vehicles to Manhattan and the Manhattan central business district are comparable to pre-pandemic levels, while evening traffic volumes remain lower. • From June through September 2020, Citi Bike ridership has been fairly consistent with ridership patterns during the same months in 2019. Afternoon peak hour Citi Bike rides exceed 2019 volumes; morning peak hour rides remain lower. October 6, 2020 3 Citywide Trends October 6, 2020 4 Citywide Trends • Travel across all modes is up substantially over mid-April volumes. Week of 09/28/2020 Compared to Week of Ridership across all modes measured here is essentially stable. Public 04/13/2020 (Weekly Total) schools are only partially open for in-person learning, and office re- 1200% occupancy has been slow. 1008% 1000% 849% 800% • Note: While bus ridership data had been estimated during the suspension 600% of fare collection, bus ridership data from 10/1/20 onward is based on 425% 400% 313% 282% actual MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps and an estimate of cash 264% 200% 122% Baseline: fares paid, which may account for some of the change observed this week Total trips 0% over earlier in September. week of 04/13/2020 Week of 09/28/2020 Compared to Week of 09/14/2020 (Weekly Total) % Change fromWeekof 04/13/2020 4% 3% Week of 09/28/2020 Compared to Week of 2% 2% 08/24/2020 (Weekly Total) 2% 30% 27% 27% 89,328 572,119 Baseline: Total 0% trips week of 20% 14% Subway Bus LIRR Metro-North Staten NYC Ferry Citibike 09/14/2020 Island Ferry 10,584,435 10% -2% -1% 4% 5% Baseline: 520,600 427,000 144,196 0% Total trips -4% week of -4% -10% 08/24/2020 -5% -6% -20% 6,340,718 -23% -22% -30% -8% -7% % Change fromWeekof 08/24/2020 % Change fromWeekof 09/14/2020 Data sources: MTA (Subway, Bus, LIRR, Metro North), EDC (NYC Ferry), DOT (Citi Bike, SI Ferry). October 6, 2020 5 Citywide Trends: Weekday vs Weekend • Gains in travel across different modes have been substantial, but distributed unevenly since the mid-April low, and skewed more towards weekend travel. Week of 09/28/2020 Compared to Week of 04/13/2020 (Weekday vs. Weekend) The modes showing the greatest gains since April are those that experienced 2000% the greatest declines at the start of the pandemic. 1639% 1500% 1154% 939% 1000% 755% • This indicates a growing willingness to leave home, but perhaps not a return 320% 707% 311% 361% 360% 321% Baseline: 500% 262% 180% to places of work for many people who would typically be commuting. 134%80% Total trips 0% week of • Note: While bus ridership data had been estimated during the suspension of fare 04/13/2020 collection, bus ridership data from 10/1/20 onward is based on actual MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps and an estimate of cash fares paid and thus may be unreliable to compare against ridership counts from earlier this year. Weekday Weekend % Change fromWeekof 04/13/2020 Week of 09/28/2020 Compared to Week of 09/14/2020 (Weekday vs. Weekend) Week of 09/28/2020 Compared to Week of 08/24/2020 (Weekday vs. Weekend) 8% 6% 6% 40% 36% 6% 5% 33% 30% 26% 24% 4% 3% 18% 2% 1% 20% 2% 14% 0% Baseline: Total 8% Baseline: 10% 4% 0% trips week of 1% Total trips Subway Bus 0%LIRR Metro-North Staten NYC Ferry Citibike -2% 09/14/2020 0% week of Island Ferry 08/24/2020 -4% -1% -10% -3% -4% -12% -6% -20% -21% -8% -7% -30% -8% -30% -28% -10% -40% -12% -10% % Change fromWeekof 09/14/2020 Weekday Weekend -12% % Change fromWeekof 08/24/2020 -14% Weekday Weekend Data sources: MTA (Subway, Bus, LIRR, Metro North), EDC (NYC Ferry), DOT (Citi Bike, SI Ferry). October 6, 2020 6 MTA data: Subway and Bus October 6, 2020 7 MTA Subway & Bus System-wide Ridership Changes Percent Change of Estimated* MTA Subway & Bus Weekly Ridership (March 1- October 4, 2020) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Subway Bus • On September 1, the MTA resumed fare collection on buses, after suspending collection on March 23, 2020. Bus ridership dropped by more than 22 percent that week, while subway ridership increased by more than 11 percent. The drop in bus riders and increase in subway riders during the first week of September likely reflects a resulting mode shift. • While bus ridership appears to have fallen by nearly 5% over the past week, the MTA changed their methodology* in calculating ridership and includes the following note, which likely explains some if not all of the decline: ”Bus ridership data from 10/1/20 onward is based on actual MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps and an estimate of cash fares paid.” *Previously from the MTA: Current bus ridership figures are estimated from models that use MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps and Automatic Passenger Counter data that is available on a portion of our bus fleet. These figures are indicative of ridership but not a precise count. Figures from recent days may be revised as reconciliation processes are carried out. Data sources: MTA (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership) October 6, 2020 8 MTA Subway System-wide Ridership Changes Estimated* MTA Subway Ridership (March 1- October 4, 2020) 6000000 5000000 • Weekday subway ridership during the week of September 28 was up 2 percent over the week of September 14, 4000000 and weekend ridership was up 3 percent over the week of September 14. 3000000 • Weekday subway ridership is Ridership now at nearly 35 percent of 2019 averages. 2000000 1000000 0 From the MTA: Subway ridership figures are determined from MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps. Figures from recent days may be revised as data reconciliation processes are carried out. Data sources: MTA (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership) October 6, 2020 9 MTA Bus System-wide Ridership Changes Estimated * MTA Bus Ridership (March 1- October 4, 2020) 2500000 • Weekday bus ridership reportedly was down 4 percent during the week of September 28 from the week of September 14, while 2000000 weekend ridership was down 10 percent compared to the week of September 14. 1500000 • However, the MTA changed how ridership is reported, noting on their website: “Bus ridership data from 10/1/20 Ridership 1000000 onward is based on actual MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps and an estimate of cash fares paid.” 500000 • Weekday bus ridership is now at nearly half of 2019 averages. 0 From the MTA: Current bus ridership figures are estimated from models that use MetroCard and OMNY swipes and taps and Automatic Passenger Counter data that is available on a portion of our bus fleet. These figures are indicative of ridership but not a precise count. Figures from recent days may be revised as reconciliation processes are carried out. Data sources: MTA (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership) October 6, 2020 10 Weekday AM and PM Peak Turnstile Data – Comparisons with April 2020 • In mid-April, subway travel was at its lowest. Ridership has been increasing since then, to varying degrees across the city. • The AM peak hour map may indicate where commuters are returning to the subway system, while the PM peak hour map may indicate where people are commuting home from. • Much of Queens and south Brooklyn are seeing strong AM peak hour gains. The city’s business districts have gained substantial PM peak ridership since mid-April.