UNIVERSITY OF SARAJEVO FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND DIPLOMACY MIGRATION CONTROL AS A TOOL IN FOREIGN POLICY - Master Thesis - Candidate Mentor Gluhalić Melisa Prof.dr. Damir Kapidžić Index number: 1034/p Sarajevo, April 2021 UNIVERSITY OF SARAJEVO FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND DIPLOMACY MIGRATION CONTROL AS A TOOL IN FOREIGN POLICY - Master Thesis – Candidate Mentor Gluhalić Melisa Prof.dr. Damir Kapidžić Index number: 1034/p Sarajevo, April 2021 Table of Contents LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................... INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................... 6 1.1 RESEARCH TOPIC .................................................................................................... 6 1.2 RESEARCH QUESTION ........................................................................................... 7 1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................ 7 1.4 HYPOTHESIS FORMULATION ............................................................................... 9 1.4.1 General hypothesis ............................................................................................... 9 1.4.2 Auxiliary hypotheses ............................................................................................ 9 1.5 RESEARCH METHODS AND TECHNIQUES ........................................................ 9 CHAPTER 1 ............................................................................................................................. 10 THEORETICAL APPROACH ................................................................................................ 10 1. FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS ..................................................................................... 10 1.1 GRASSROOTS ......................................................................................................... 11 1.2 THE FPA DEFINED ................................................................................................. 13 1.3 HUMAN ACTORS AS DECISION-MAKERS ........................................................ 14 1.3.1 Rational Choice Theory...................................................................................... 14 1.3.2 Perception ........................................................................................................... 16 1.3.3 Cognition ............................................................................................................ 16 1.3.4 Personality .......................................................................................................... 17 1.3.5 The Role of Emotions......................................................................................... 18 1.3.6 External Influence .............................................................................................. 20 1.4 BUREAUCRACY ..................................................................................................... 22 1.5 FOREIGN POLICY IN A MULTI-LEVEL REALM ............................................... 25 1.5.1 Two-Level Game ................................................................................................ 27 2. REALISM ......................................................................................................................... 29 2.1 CLASSICAL REALISM ........................................................................................... 29 2.2 NEO-REALISM, i.e. STRUCTURAL REALISM .................................................... 33 2.2.1 Defensive Realism .............................................................................................. 34 2.2.2 Offensive Realism .............................................................................................. 38 2.3 NEOCLASSICAL REALISM ................................................................................... 40 CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................. 45 3. MIGRATION FLOWS AND FOREIGN POLICY IN IR ................................................ 45 CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................. 52 4. TURKEY IN THE MIDDLE EAST ................................................................................. 52 4.1 GRAND STRATEGY ............................................................................................... 53 4.2 FOREIGN POLICY IN THE PRE-ARAB SPRING ERA ........................................ 56 4.2.1 Soft Power .......................................................................................................... 63 4.2.2 Free-Fall ............................................................................................................. 65 CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................. 67 5. MIGRATION AND INSTRUMENTALIZATION OF THE MOVEMENT ................... 67 5.1 WHAT IS GOING ON IN SYRIA? .......................................................................... 67 5.2 SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY .............................................................................. 70 5.2.1 Assertive Response ............................................................................................ 75 Selective-humanitarianism ................................................................................................ 77 5.2.2 Internationalization through the United Nations ................................................ 81 The Path to New Agreements ........................................................................................... 84 Building International Networks ....................................................................................... 87 5.2.3 Opportunistic with regard to the European Union’s securitization agenda in the post-2015 period; .............................................................................................................. 89 Securitization Theory ........................................................................................................ 89 EU-Turkey: A Roller Coaster Timeline ............................................................................ 91 5.2.4 From 2017 Onwards ........................................................................................... 97 5.2.5 Overconfidence Effect ...................................................................................... 101 6. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 103 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................ DECLARATION ......................................................................................................................... LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AFAD – (Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı / Disaster and Emergency Management Authority) AKP – (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi / The Justice and Development Party) CEM – (Coercive engineered migrations) CSDP - (Common Security and Defence Policy) EP – (European Parliament) EU – (European Union) EUTRA – (EU-Turkey Readmission Agreement) FPA – (Foreign policy analysis) IOM – (International Organization for Migration) IR – (International Relations) KRG - (Kurdistan Regional Government) LFIP – (Law on Foreigners and International Protection) MENA – (The Middle East and North Africa) NATO – (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) NGO – (Non-governmental organization) OECD – (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) OHCHR – (Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights) PM – (Prime minister) TPR – (Temporary Protection Regulation) TİKA – (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency) UN – (United Nations) UNHCR – (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) UNSMIS – (United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria) INTRODUCTION In this changing world, where globalization has made life easier for people in many fields, it has at the same time made the future of many uncertain. And so by promoting liberal ideas under the auspices of ‘freedom of movement’ many have found themselves in front of closed doors and experienced firsthand the hypocrisy of this global policy that is seemingly advocated only in theory. Thus, despite efforts to preserve state sovereignty, it became initially inevitable accepting the argument that human movement has existed since the time of prehistoric civilizations to modern times. And consequently, the fact that it is a movement that is impossible to stop, no matter how many ‘walls’ someone builds. Despite this, reactions and responses to this issue always vary. And while we have those who will always try to understand the excruciating suffering and the path that people who find themselves in this situation go through, we also have those with no empathy, who always express their resilience and resistance, and finally, those who will try to extract certain benefits from such situations. Usually, the main populistic argument is that the majority are