Climate Change Revisions to Nevada’s Wildlife Action Plan: Vegetation Mapping and Modeling Report to the Nevada Department of Wildlife May 2011 Photo: Salt desert to subalpine—Ward Mountain Nevada; L. Provencher, 2009 By Louis Provencher and Tanya Anderson The Nature Conservancy Reno, Nevada TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 8 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 12 METHODS ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 VEGETATION MAPPING ................................................................................................................................................. 13 ASSESSING FUTURE CONDITION ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Modeling by Regions of Nevada ......................................................................................................................... 17 Predictive Ecological Models ............................................................................................................................... 19 Overview of Climate Change Modeling ............................................................................................................... 19 Range shifts ...................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Accounting for Variability in Disturbances ....................................................................................................................... 24 Temporal multipliers without climate change ................................................................................................................. 25 Temporal multipliers with climate change ....................................................................................................................... 35 Active Management Scenario .......................................................................................................................................... 51 RESULTS & DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................................................... 51 MINIMUM MANAGEMENT ............................................................................................................................................. 51 ACTIVE MANAGEMENT SCENARIO ................................................................................................................................... 58 Mojave Mid-Elevation Mixed Desert Scrub Habitat ............................................................................................ 58 Mojave/Sonoran Scrub Habitat .......................................................................................................................... 60 Lower Montane Woodland Habitat .................................................................................................................... 61 Intermountain Rivers & Streams Habitat ............................................................................................................ 64 Sagebrush Habitat .............................................................................................................................................. 70 WYOMING BIG SAGEBRUSH ..................................................................................................................................................... 70 BIG SAGEBRUSH-UPLAND ......................................................................................................................................................... 73 LOW/BLACK SAGEBRUSH ......................................................................................................................................................... 75 MONTANE SAGEBRUSH STEPPE-MOUNTAIN ................................................................................................................................. 77 Aspen Woodland Habitat .................................................................................................................................... 80 ASPEN-MIXED CONIFER .......................................................................................................................................................... 80 ASPEN WOODLAND ................................................................................................................................................................ 82 Intermountain Conifer Forest & Woodlands Habitat .......................................................................................... 85 Sierra Conifer Forest & Woodlands Habitat ........................................................................................................ 88 LESSONS LEARNED ............................................................................................................................................... 91 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 92 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 93 APPENDICES......................................................................................................................................................... 96 ii List of Figures & Tables TABLE 1. DESCRIPTION OF CONTRIBUTING SPATIAL LAYERS. ..................................................................................... 15 TABLE 2. MODEL GROUPS FOR THE 13 REGIONS OF NEVADA. .................................................................................. 17 TABLE 3. BIOPHYSICAL SETTINGS OF THE MODEL GROUPS. THE MONTANE RIPARIAN CARBONATE AND SUBALPINE RIPARIAN CARBONATE ARE COUPLED “RESISTANT” MODELS. .......................................................................... 18 TABLE 4. HYPOTHESIZED DIRECTIONS OF RANGE SHIFTS. BPSS ARE APPROXIMATELY ARRANGED BY ELEVATION IN THE GREAT BASIN. DIFFERENT BPSS AMONG ROWS (READ VERTICALLY ONLY AND NEVER ACROSS COLUMNS) WITH THE SAME LETTER (NOT GROUPS OF LETTERS) INDICATE A RANGE SHIFT AND THE LETTER IN BOLD (ARBITRARILY ASSIGNED TO EACH LOSING BPS) IS THE ORIGINATING (LOSING) BPS; THEREFORE THE NORMAL LETTER INDICATES RECIPIENTS (GAINING) BPSS. SEE ARROW AS ONE EXAMPLE............................................. 21 TABLE 5. HYPOTHETICAL PERCENTAGE OF RANGE SHIFTS ACCORDING TO BPSS PRODUCTIVITY AND INDICATOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION OVER 100 YEARS. BIOPHYSICAL SETTINGS ARE APPROXIMATELY ARRANGED BY ELEVATION IN THE GREAT BASIN. ...................................................................................................................... 23 TABLE 6. SOURCE USGS GAGE DATA FOR DISCHARGE DEPENDENT TEMPORAL MULTIPLIERS. ................................. 26 TABLE 7. CLIMATIC DIVISIONS OF NEVADA AND NESTED REGIONS. .......................................................................... 30 TABLE 8. OVERVIEW OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN ECOLOGICAL DEPARTURE (ED), HIGH-RISK CLASSES (HR), OR ASPEN CLONE LOSS (AL) FOR ALL BPSS AND REGIONS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS. ALL COLORED ENTRIES INDICATE AN EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AMONG THE SCENARIOS “NO CLIMATE-CHANGE”, “HALF CLIMATE CHANGE”, AND “FULL CLIMATE CHANGE.” LEGEND: ↑ED= SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ECOLOGICAL DEPARTURE COMPARED TO NATURAL RANGE OF VARIABILITY ; AL = SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ASPEN; ↑HR = SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HIGH RISK CLASSES; ~ED= BORDERLINE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON ED. .................... 54 TABLE 9. OVERVIEW OF SIGNIFICANT DECREASES IN ECOLOGICAL DEPARTURE (ED), HIGH-RISK CLASSES (HR), OR ASPEN CLONE LOSS (AL) FOR ALL BPSS AND REGIONS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS. ALL COLORED ENTRIES INDICATE AN EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AMONG THE SCENARIOS “NO CLIMATE-CHANGE”, “HALF CLIMATE CHANGE”, AND “FULL CLIMATE CHANGE.” LEGEND: NO = NO EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE; ↓ED = SIGNIFICANT ECOLOGICAL DEPARTURE DECREASE (I.E., MORE LIKE REFERENCE CONDITION); CREATED = SYSTEM NOT PRESENT IN NO CC SCENARIO, BUT PRESENT WITH CC DUE TO RANGE SHIFTS. ......................... 56 FIGURE 1. SCHEMATIC OF THE LANDSCAPE CONSERVATION FORECASTING™. LEGEND: NRV = NATURAL RANGE OF VARIABILITY IS THE REFERENCE CONDITION. ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ARE POTENTIAL VEGETATION TYPES. ... 13 FIGURE 2.CONSOLIDATED PHYTOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF NEVADA. BASED ON 27 ORIGINAL REGIONS PROPOSED BY THE NEVADA NATURAL HERITAGE PROGRAM. ......................................................................... 16 FIGURE 3. RIPARIAN TEMPORAL MULTIPLIERS FOR 7-YEAR, 20-YEAR, AND 100-YEAR FLOOD EVENTS WITHOUT CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS FOR THE HUMBOLDT RIVER AT THE CARLIN GAGE. FOR THE 20-YEAR AND 100- YEAR FLOOD EVENTS, RESPECTIVELY, ALL VALUES BELOW THEIR THRESHOLD WERE ZERO. FIVE REPLICATES (REPL) ARE SHOWN EACH PER 75-YEAR PERIOD. FLOOD EVENTS ARE BASED ON ANNUAL PEAK FLOW. THE GRAY LINE FOR TEMPORAL MULTIPLIER = 1 REPRESENTED THE “NO-CHANGE” OR NEUTRAL PARAMETER LINE. ..................................................................................................................................................................