© 2012, Astronomical Society of the Pacific No. 79 • Winter 2012 www.astrosociety.org/uitc 390 Ashton Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94112 2012 by Alice Enevoldsen (Pacific Science Center) erhaps the longest-standing prediction of the end of the world comes to its final reckoning in December of 2012. Are you ready? I’m stocking up on reality, Plogic, science, and rationality and am ready to teach my way through this non-apocalypse. I truly hope 2012 brings less tragedy than previous end-of- the-world predictions like those of Heaven’s Gate and other doomsday cults. Fear and panic are very real even if 2012 is not. Seek professional help for anyone you know who is truly afraid. Actions: How to Talk About 2012 • Validate: Your students are intelligent people, so treat them as such. Validate their interest in the topic and ac- Maya Priest Tiburcio Can May greeting the rising Sun on the day of zenith knowledge correct facts first. passage at Chichen Itza, Mexico. (Image credit: Bryan Mendez, UC Berkeley Space Science Lab Calendar in the Sky Project) • Quash: This hoax is causing too much panic, so you need to quash it as soon as possible, without being mean netic field, and the continued alignment of the Earth, Sun, (anger will get you nowhere). Share facts from reliable and galactic center, 2012 has a lot that has been sensational- sources and avoid getting stuck in arguments that have ized as part of its apocalypse story. This hoax rolls pretty no hope of resolution. much every astronomy-related doomsday thread into one. • Suggest: Find some common ground. Suggest some- Let’s tackle the six biggest pieces one at a time. We’ll do the thing real and related that you can enjoy together. Easy quick ones first: examples for 2012 are the solar eclipse visible from parts of the United States in May, the transit of Venus in June, Nibiru, the Fictional Planet safely viewing sunspots throughout the year, or going out • Is the Earth in danger from an unknown planet? No. to watch a meteor shower in August (Perseids), Novem- ber (Leonids) or December (Orionids). Nibiru is the name given to a non-existent planet supposed- ly discovered by the ancient Sumerians (2200 B.C.E. to 1600 The 2012 Hoax: The Kitchen Sink of Dooms- B.C.E.). This discovery was entirely made up by Zecharia day Stories Sitchin in several fictional novels that he has written since 1970 about ancient Mesopotamian culture. Nancy Lieder, a 2012 has become the kitchen sink of hoaxes. What with the “psychic,” built upon these stories, saying the Earth was in non-existent planet Nibiru, the rollover of the Maya Long danger from Nibiru in May 2003. Nothing happened in May Count, a long-expected and non-existent conjunction of 2003 so the “end” of the Mayan calendar was rolled into the planets, some sunspots, a lack of reversal in the Earth’s mag- hoax, giving the date December 21, 2012 as the “real” date Universe in the Classroom No. 79 • Winter 2012 Page 1 of the disaster. There is no planet Nibiru. Planets are large enough that if there was a planet endangering the Earth in 2012, we’d be able to see it already. Polar Shift: Tipping the Earth Upside Down Magnetic Poles • Will the Earth’s magnetic poles flip in 2012?No. • Will the magnetic pole reversal cause monster earth- quakes or risk of extinction due to radiation? No. Rotational Poles • Will the Earth’s rotational poles flip in 2012? No. In the geologic record there is strong evidence that the Earth’s geomagnetic field reverses polarity every several hundred thousand years with no regularity. There is nothing to suggest this poses a threat to life on Earth, and scientists can’t predict when the next one will happen even to the nearest 100,000 years, let alone to the nearest decade. “Polar Shift” refers to something different though—it refers Planetary Positions on December 21, 2012. to a physical change in the tilt of the Earth. This happened to Uranus in the past, and generally requires being slammed Solar Maximum: the Sun Throws a Temper into by something very massive. There is nothing that mas- Tantrum sive on a collision course with Earth within your lifetime, • Will the Sun be extra active in 2012? Yes. and nothing that massive on a collision course with Earth at all as far as we know. • Will we be in danger from extra solar radiation during 2012? No. Planetary Alignment: Pretty Planets All in a The solar activity cycle lasts about 11 years, and the last Row maximum of activity was in 2001, which would imply a • Will the planets align in 2012? No. maximum in 2012. NASA is now predicting that this cycle’s Solar maximum won’t happen until May of 2013, and most • Will an alignment of the planets cause gravity to go of the biggest flares often occur just after the maximum. It’s crazy? No. pretty neat, so get a trained astronomer to help you carefully The planets will not be aligned on 12/12/2012 or any other day in 2012. Their positions on that date are shown top right. If you look at another view of the same picture (see page 7), they do look aligned, but that line is the ecliptic—the line through the plane of our solar system. All planets are always aligned along this line: every moment of every day of every year. That is the definition of the ecliptic. What is the ecliptic? All the planets in our solar system orbit in the same plane. It is also true that the students in your classroom are sitting in the same plane: they’re all sitting in chairs at desks. You wouldn’t, for instance, ever find a student on the ceiling or underneath your feet (hopefully). If you sit among your students and you look for them you’ll be looking around yourself in a line—not around the whole sphere around yourself. That line where the students are is a Solar activity will increase during 2012 as the Sun follows an 11 year activity representation of the ecliptic. cycle. Image credit: Hathaway/NASA/MSFC Universe in the Classroom No. 79 • Winter 2012 Page 2 observe sunspots (always use approved filters to observe the Sun, never look directly at it!). Solar maximum is of more concern to satellites and people working in space than it is for us with our feet on the ground. Down here we’re protected by both the atmosphere and the Earth’s magnetic field. We’ll get some extra auroras, and you might hear more static on overseas calls than you usually do. Galactic Alignment: Fried Eggs and Blueberry Pancakes • Will the Sun, the Earth, and the center of the Galaxy be aligned on December 21, 2012? Yes, as much as they ever are. • Will this alignment cause anything on Earth? No. The Sun, the Earth, and the center of the galaxy will be sort- of aligned on December 21, 2012. Actually, they’re aligned the same way every winter solstice and have been for de- cades. We also know that the three won’t exactly align—they stay about 5.5 degrees apart—but the closest they’ll be in Mayan calendar glyphs and how the calendar round works. Images courtesy of your lifetime was back in 1998, not in 2012. Alice Enevoldsen Maya Long Count Cheat Sheet 1 kin = 1 day 1 uinal = 20 kin = 20 days 1 tun = 18 uinal = 360 days 1 katun = 20 tun = 7200 days (about 20 years) 1 baktun = 20 katun = 144000 days (about 400 years) 1 may = 13 katun = 93600 days (about 255 years) 20 may = 13 baktun = 260 katun = 1872000 days (about 5000 years) The Milky Way Galaxy in infrared, showing the bright central bulge and dust 13 baktun (or 20 may) is when the Long Count rolls over clouds in the galactic plane. Image Credit: Atlas Image courtesy of 2MASS/ UMass/IPAC-Caltech/NASA/NSF 1 pictun = 20 baktun = 2880000 days (about 8000 years) 1 calabtun = 20 pictun = 57600000 days (about 150000 A related argument states that the solar system will pass years) through or out of the galactic plane. Setting aside the fact 1 kinchiltun = 20 calabtun = 1152000000 days (about 3 mil- that we’d have to define what we mean by “galactic plane” lion years) it is worthwhile to note that the galaxy has thickness like a 1 alautun = 20 kinchiltuns = 23 040 000 000 days (about 63 pancake or a fried egg, and the solar system is in the middle million years) of that thickness. Think of us as a blueberry seed in a blue- The 13th Maya baktun rolls over on December 21, 2012 berry pancake. It will take us a while to pass fully through — this is often referred to as “the end of the Maya Long the galactic plane. We’ll be in the middle for several million Count.” As with many cultures’ calendars, the Maya calen- more years. dar uses different periods of time than the calendar stuck The Maya Calendar “Ends”—Just Like Ours to your fridge right now. They use 5 numbers to represent a given date, called the Long Count. A baktun = 20 katun, Did a katun = 20 tun, 1 tun = 18 uinal, 1 uinal = 1 kin (which is • Will the Maya Calendar end in 2012? No. one day). Americans usually use only three numbers: year, month, and day. • Will the Maya Calendar roll over in 2012? Yes.