In this issue: Q & A w/ NHC 17 Champ Paul Matties Jr. – Page 2 Other Q & A’s throughout the issue! Speed Figure Perspective by TimeformUS – Page 4 Tackling the Turf Mile – Page 9 Dinkin’s Ten BC Things to Watch for – Page 12 Low Take, Full Fields – Page 15 Why We Lose – Page 24 Breeders’ Cup Stats Pack – Page 28 The Horseplayer Monthly Breeders’ Cup/November 2016 Issue Race 7 3:05 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 Race 8 3:50 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Race 9 4:35 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER Sp DD SupHi 5 For this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup issue of Race 10 5:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER Horseplayer Monthly, we’ve assembled a top-notch group of handicappers to answer some Q & A’s and have some analysis courtesy of TimeformUS. To start, here’s the race order and betting menu! Championships Race Order (All Times Pacific) The first Championships race on Breeders’ Cup Friday will be the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (2:25 p.m.); followed by the $1 million Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (3:05 p.m.); the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (3:50 p.m.); and the $2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (4:35 p.m.). Championship Saturday begins with two stakes races followed by the $2 million 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (12:05 p.m.); $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (12:43 p.m.); $1.5 million TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint (1:21 p.m.); $1 million Breeders’ Cup Saturday, November 5 Turf Sprint (2:05 p.m.); $2 million Sentient Jet Breeders’ Race 1 10:15 AM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 5 Cup Juvenile (2:43 p.m.), $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (3:22 p.m.); $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Race 2 10:50 AM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 Sprint (4:01); $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (4:40 p.m.) and Race 3 11:25 AM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic (5:35 p.m.). Race 4 12:05 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 Race 5 12:43 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Friday’s Guaranteed Pools Race 6 1:21 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Friday’s card will open with a $500,000 Pick 5 on Races 1- Race 7 2:05 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6 5. There will be a Pick 6 on Races 4-9 with a $500,000 Race 8 2:43 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD guarantee and an all Breeders’ Cup Pick 4 on Races 6-9 Race 9 3:22 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 with a $1.5 million minimum guarantee. Race 10 4:01 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Race 11 4:40 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER DD Saturday’s Guaranteed Pools Race 12 5:35 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER SupHi 5 There will be a $500,000 guaranteed Pick 5 on Races 1-5; ALL POST-TIMES ARE PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME an early all Breeders’ Cup Pick 4 with a $1 million BOLD are Breeders’ Cup World Championships races guarantee on Races 4-7; a $2 million guaranteed all Breeders’ Cup Ultra Pick 6 on races 7-12 and a $3 million Friday’s Pick 6, Pick 5 and Super Hi 5 may guaranteed all Breeders’ Cup late Pick 4, Races 9-12. carryover from Friday to Saturday. Saturday’s Pick 6, Pick 5 and Super Hi 5 may POST-TIMES/WAGERING MENU carryover from Saturday to Sunday. Special Distaff/Classic Daily Double on Friday race Friday, November 4 9 and Saturday race 12. Race 1 11:25 AM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 5 Race 2 12:00 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD Bet Minimums Race 3 12:35 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 $2.00 - WIN, PLACE, SHOW, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 6 Race 4 1:10 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 6 $1.00 - EXACTA, DISTAFF/CLASSIC DAILY DOUBLE Race 5 1:45 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD $.50 - TRIFECTA, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, SUPER Hi 5 Race 6 2:25 PM WPS EX TRI SUPER PICK 3 DD PICK 4 $.10 – SUPERFECTA (press release) THE HORSEPLAYER MONTHLY, BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE HORSEPLAYERS ASSOCIATION OF NORTH AMERICA Q: The Juvenile Turf looks wide-open as always, who are you going with? Paul Matties Jr. (NHC 17 champion) A: The Juvenile Turf is a problem for me because the horses who I think are the best two horses have terrible Q: The Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita has been somewhat posts. Good Samaritan and Rodaini are in 11 and 12 but notorious for speed biases – are you expecting the same both look like they could be freaks. Good Samaritan has a thing this year and how do you adjust your handicapping? clear figure edge and his workout might be the best work of all the Breeder's Cup races. Rodaini has lost one race A: At the fall meet at Santa Anita, the main track has had a and if you haven't watched the trip Rodaini had in the race he lost, you should find the replay. more of an inside tilt than recent meets, and speed has done well, particularly in the routes. The most important Q: What do you do with Runhappy in the Dirt Mile? thing to remember at SA is that outside speed horses (stalkers/pressing the leader two-wide) always do well, especially in the one-turn (sprint) races. The new turf A: You throw him out. He was one of my favorite horses course has been even faster than the old one and it's one to watch last year, but you can't like his chances in this that horses get over well. Because of that, the jockeys race off one poor effort this year. The interesting thing should be pressing the issue more, but I'm suspect if that's about that race is I think Dortmund is vulnerable in that going to happen. If they aren't aggressive enough, speed field too, especially having to chase Runhappy for part of will do good just because of physics, not because of a bias. it. Races where you can beat the two favorites are huge opportunities, especially when you have a reliable key like Q: The Turf Sprint at Santa Anita is unique to the event Gun Runner. with them racing down the hill – what are your thoughts on that race? Is experience down the hill a key? Q: Who is the favorite you’re taking a stand against? A: The 6 1/2 furlong down the hill races at Santa Anita are A: Well, Dortmund and Songbird are both 6/5 ML on a novelty. I'm not thrilled that it's included in the pick 6, Friday and both are bad value. It wouldn't be a total shock but it is a race where you can definitely win a lot betting a if either won, because neither is in a bad situation, but little. This year's race doesn't seem like one where they aren't as dominant as their odds will be. On Saturday, experience over the course is completely necessary, but it Tepin and Lady Eli are great stories, but both are unlikely may be another reason to back off on your opinion a bit. winners and worth taking a shot against. The most telling thing to me in this year's race is the lack of real turf sprint speed, so even though a horse like Pure Q: Who is the horse you’re most excited to bet? Sensation is a little distance compromised, he may have an advantage. A: After the preliminary handicapping, there's three The main threats are all the cutback horses: Obviously, horses I really like, two that will be double digits for Om, A Lot and Celestine. They may be the best four horses sure. In the Sprint, Limousine Liberal should be in that anyway, and they all look like good candidates to like the stalking position I was talking about, and he improved a lot hill. with blinkers last time. He came out of that race training like a monster. I like now horses in the Sprint and he looks like the now horse. Tourist in the Mile had a horrendous trip over a course he doesn't love last time. He has run fast enough to win this and should love the new Santa Anita turf, and with his draw, he should sit perfect in behind a good pace. Finally, in the Turf, Ectot looks loose. The Euros are nice horses but none of them are great. Looking for Ectot to wire them again. Q: Classic: Chrome, Arrogate, or someone else? A: There's never been a Classic where the majority of the field has no shot to win. Only the three obvious horses (California Chrome, Arrogate and Frosted) can win. The interesting thing is "the other two" have run faster than California Chrome is going to run on Saturday, but California Chrome is the most likely to run his A race.