London Commuter Belt (East)/M11 Sub-Region Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2008 Report of Study Findings January 2010 London Commuter Belt (East)/M11 Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2008 Opinion Research Services, The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF Jonathan Lee Nigel Moore · Chris Broughton · Catherine Nock · Hugo Marchant enquiries 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk Savills Lemsford House, 14 Parkway, Porters Wood, St Albans, Herts AL3 6PA Housing Investment & Consultancy David Harrison · Jo Greenbank enquiries 01727 810192 Brentwood Borough Council, Town Hall, Ingrave Road, Brentwood, Essex, CM15 8AY Geoff Boyton (Principal Planner) [email protected] 01277 312609 Borough of Broxbourne, Bishops’ College, Churchgate, Cheshunt, Hertfordshire, EN8 9XQ Colin Haigh (Planning Policy Manager) [email protected] or Jackie Cottingham (Housing Policy and Project Manager) [email protected] 01992 785521 East Herts District Council, Wallfields, Pegs Lane, Hertford, SG13 8EQ John Careford (Senior Planning Officer) [email protected] 01992 531623 or Claire Bennett (Housing Strategy Manager) [email protected] Epping Forest District Council, Civic Offices, High Street, Epping, Essex, CM16 4BZ Amanda Wintle (Senior Planning Officer) [email protected] 01992 564543 or Chris Sobey (Principal Housing Officer) [email protected] Harlow Council, Civic Centre, The Water Gardens, Harlow, Essex, CM20 1WG Jane Greer (Housing Strategy and Partnerships Manager) [email protected] 01279 446395 Uttlesford District Council, Council Offices, London Road, Saffron Walden, Essex, CB11 4ER Suzanna Clarke (Housing Strategy and Planning Manager) [email protected] 01799 510543 or Hannah Hayden (Planning Officer) [email protected] Page 2 Contents Section 1: Introducing the Study .................................................................................................................. 9 Satisfying the Process Checklist ......................................................................................................11 Providing the Core Outputs ............................................................................................................17 Data Sources ..................................................................................................................................19 Section 2: The Strategic Context .................................................................................................................21 Affordable Housing ........................................................................................................................22 The East of England ........................................................................................................................22 Overall Housing Provision ...............................................................................................................23 Affordable Housing in the East of England ......................................................................................24 Regional Housing Strategy ..............................................................................................................24 Economic Context ..........................................................................................................................25 Transport .......................................................................................................................................25 Provision for Gypsies and Travellers ...............................................................................................26 Black and Minority Ethnic Groups ...................................................................................................26 Refugees ........................................................................................................................................26 London Commuter Belt ..................................................................................................................27 Brentwood .....................................................................................................................................29 Broxbourne ....................................................................................................................................30 East Hertfordshire ..........................................................................................................................31 Epping Forest .................................................................................................................................32 Harlow ...........................................................................................................................................34 Uttlesford.......................................................................................................................................35 ......................................................................................................................................................36 Section 3: Identifying Local Housing Sub-Markets within the Sub-Region ...................................................37 Housing Sub-Markets in the London Commuter Belt Sub-Region ....................................................37 Sources of Information and Approach ............................................................................................37 Identifying and Grouping Areas with Similar Characteristics ...........................................................38 Identifying and Grouping Areas with a Degree of Self containment ................................................38 Data Sources Used .........................................................................................................................38 Defining Sub-Regional Housing Market Areas .................................................................................39 House Prices and Rates of Change ..................................................................................................39 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................40 Using Employment and Migration Patterns to Define Housing Market Areas ..................................41 Defining Housing Market Areas for the Sub-region .........................................................................43 Conclusions: Housing Market Areas in London Commuter Belt (East)/M11 sub-region ...................45 Understanding the Identified Housing Market Areas in the Study Area ...........................................47 Page 3 London Commuter Belt (East)/M11 Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2008 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 48 Section 4: Existing Dwelling Stock ............................................................................................................... 51 Housing Tenure .............................................................................................................................. 52 Private Rented Sector ..................................................................................................................... 54 Household and Age Structure ......................................................................................................... 54 Ethnicity ......................................................................................................................................... 56 Overcrowding ................................................................................................................................ 56 Social Housing ................................................................................................................................ 57 Income and Housing Benefit........................................................................................................... 59 Ethnicity ......................................................................................................................................... 60 Overcrowding ................................................................................................................................ 61 Communal Establishments ............................................................................................................. 62 Section 5: Key Housing Market Drivers........................................................................................................ 65 National Level Household Changes ................................................................................................. 65 Local Population Trends ................................................................................................................. 66 ONS Projections ............................................................................................................................. 67 Age Structure ................................................................................................................................. 68 The Local Economy......................................................................................................................... 69 Employment and Unemployment ................................................................................................... 69 Industry ........................................................................................................................................