CrookedCrooked KaleidoscopeKaleidoscope OrganizedOrganized CrimeCrime inin thethe BalkansBalkans June 2017 A NETWORK TO COUNTER NETWORKS A NETWORK TO COUNTER NETWORKS Crooked Kaleidoscope Organized Crime in the Balkans June 2017 © 2017 Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Global Initiative. Please direct inquiries to: The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime WMO Building, 2nd Floor 7bis, Avenue de la Paix CH-1211 Geneva 1 Switzerland www.GlobalInitiative.net Acknowledgements The author would like to thank, among others, Erhard Busek, Tim Del Vecchio, Odd Berner Malme, Goran Svilanovic, Ivan Krastev, Guy Vinet and colleagues in the OSCE Strategic Police Matters Unit, Gerald Tatzgern, Robert Hampshire, Christian Jechoutek, Norbert Mappes-Niediek, Thomas Pietschmann, Svein Eriksen, Ugi Zvekic, as well as colleagues at EUROPOL, the OSCE, UNHCR and UNODC. A big thank you to Sharon Wilson for layout, Sebastian Ballard for the maps, and to Ray Bartkus as always for a fantastic cover. A special tribute to the many brave journalists and members of civil society, particularly in Macedonia and Montenegro, who would prefer to remain anonymous. Thanks to Mark Shaw and Tuesday Reitano at the Global Initiative for their support and encouragement to make this paper possible. The Global Initiative would like to thank the Government of Norway for the funding provided for catalytic research on illicit flows and zones of fragility that made this study possible. About the Author Walter Kemp is a Senior Fellow at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. He is particularly interested in the relationship between organized crime and conflict. While at the International Peace Institute (IPI), he led a project called “Peace without Crime” which looked at the impact of organized crime on peace operations, and what to do about it. He has also been Spokesman and Speechwriter at the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), and has more than ten years of experience in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The paper is written in a personal capacity and does not represent the views of any of the institutions or organizations with which he may be associated. © 2017 Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Global Initiative. Please direct inquiries to: The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime WMO Building, 2nd Floor 7bis, Avenue de la Paix CH-1211 Geneva 1 Switzerland www.GlobalInitiative.net v Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime Crooked Kaleidoscope Organized Crime in the Balkans N SERBIA 035 km Medveđa PRISTINA KOSOVO Bujanovac Presevo Tanushevci Lojane Brodec Vaksince Shkodër Kumanovo Tetovo SKOPJE THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Durrës TIRANA Idomeni Evzonoi ALBANIA GREECE Thermaikos Lazarat Gulf Adriatic Sea © S Ballard (2017) Figure 1: Towns in the Balkans mentioned in the report. (S.Ballard) vi Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime Crooked Kaleidoscope Organized Crime in the Balkans N Executive Summary SERBIA The Balkans is back in the spotlight. A coup attempt in Montenegro, tensions between Belgrade and Pristina over the status of northern Kosovo, a wire-tapping scandal followed by political unrest in Macedonia, rivalries in Bosnia 035 about the future status of Republika Srpska, as well as the impact of the refugee crisis have started to ring alarm km Medveđa bells. A region which had been out of the limelight for a decade and considered to be on a path towards peace and prosperity is once again looking vulnerable. This can be attributed in part to the failure of the region – and its PRISTINA friends – to come to terms with organized crime and corruption. KOSOVO Bujanovac The report urges countries and organizations that have invested so much economically and politically over the past 25 years to stay engaged in the region and help it avoid back-sliding. In particular, it calls for stronger measures to Presevo fight corruption, enhance justice, and go after the proceeds of crime rather than just focusing on police reform. Tanushevci Lojane It recommends a more joined-up approach to looking at and responding to organized crime in the Balkans, as well Brodec Vaksince as for enhancing networks to strengthen resilience to this threat. Shkodër Kumanovo Tetovo This report looks at organized crime in the Western Balkans.1 In particular, it focuses on the impact of organized SKOPJE crime on politics and stability. It warns about the impact of relations between political, business and criminal elites, and the spill-over effect of illicit activity in areas of weak governance. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the current situation, and asks why the Balkans is vulnerable to organized crime. THE FORMER YUGOSLAV Chapter 2 looks at the main types of organized crime in the region, particularly drugs, weapons and the smuggling REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA of migrants. Durrës TIRANA Chapter 3 looks at the relationship between crime and governance. It asks if organized crime is a transitory phase of state-building, or if there is a more deep-seated relationship between crime and politics in the Balkans that results in criminalized states. Montenegro is used as an illustrative case study. The dangerous nexus between crime and Idomeni Evzonoi ethnicity is looked at in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Chapter 4 looks at responses of the international community to organized crime in the Balkans. ALBANIA Chapter 5 concludes by warning that the international community, particularly Western European institutions, should pay greater attention to the impact of organized crime in the Balkans. It also provides recommendations of what can be done to more effectively prevent and combat organized crime. This report illustrates that in the Balkans things are not always what they seem. When first looking through the hole of the kaleidoscope, certain shapes appear. Turn the kaleidoscope, and while some of the figures may be the same, the impression changes. Such is the Balkans: what might look like an ethnic conflict is actually a diversion from GREECE high-level bi-ethnic collusion. Someone who looks like a businessman one day may be a politician or a crook the Thermaikos next. With one quick twist, a calm image can fracture into myriad pieces. Friends may betray you, while enemies Lazarat Gulf may assist you. This is the crooked kaleidoscope of organized crime in the Balkans. Adriatic Sea © S Ballard (2017) Figure 1: Towns in the Balkans mentioned in the report. (S.Ballard) 1 The Western Balkans covers ex-Yugoslavia minus Slovenia plus Albania, in other words: Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro Serbia and Albania. This report makes passing references to other Balkan countries, including Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia. vi vii Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime Crooked Kaleidoscope Organized Crime in the Balkans Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime Crooked Kaleidoscope Organized Crime in the Balkans Table of Contents Chapter 1: The Balkans at a Cross-roads ..........................................................................................1 Factors of vulnerability .............................................................................................................................................................2 Chapter 2: Crime Trends ......................................................................................................................6 Drugs ...................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Human trafficking .......................................................................................................................................................................10 Smuggling of Migrants ............................................................................................................................................................10 Weapons ...........................................................................................................................................................................................12 Cigarettes and fuel ......................................................................................................................................................................13 Follow the money .......................................................................................................................................................................14 Chapter 3: Crime and Governance ....................................................................................................15 Organized crime and state building? ..............................................................................................................................15 Shadow states ................................................................................................................................................................................16 Case Study Montenegro: Pirates of