FEBRUARY 2011 . VOL 4 . ISSUE 2 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC SentineL OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents The Muslim Brotherhood’s FEATURE ARTICLE 1 The Muslim Brotherhood’s Role in Role in the Egyptian Revolution the Egyptian Revolution By Steven Brooke and Shadi Hamid By Steven Brooke and Shadi Hamid REPORTS 4 Revolution in Tunisia and Egypt: A Blow to the Jihadist Narrative? By Nelly Lahoud 5 AQIM’s Objectives in North Africa By Geoff D. Porter 9 The Tribal Allegiance System Within AQIM By Mathieu Guidere 11 The Violent Shift in Hizb al-Tahrir’s Rhetoric By Madeleine Gruen 14 Baltimore’s Jamaat al-Muslimeen: Promoting a Radical but Disciplined Message on Jihad By J.M. Berger 17 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity 20 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts An Egyptian anti-government protester celebrates in Cairo’s Tahrir Square on February 12, 2011. - Photo by Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images n february 11, 2011, Egypt had Missing from the discussion is an attempt its revolution when President to put the Brotherhood’s actions during Hosni Mubarak finally the protests in historical perspective. stepped down after 18 days Doing so reveals that the Brotherhood’s Oof massive protests. With the military cautious approach to the protests over taking control and promising a transition the last few tumultuous weeks has been to democracy, the question of what in large part an extension of the group’s comes next has acquired a particular strategy of the past decades: a preference urgency. Specifically, Western fears of for incremental rather than revolutionary About the CTC Sentinel the Muslim Brotherhood stepping into change, caution and pragmatism, and The Combating Terrorism Center is an the political vacuum have re-energized close cooperation with other Egyptian independent educational and research a longstanding debate about the role of political actors. While it is always institution based in the Department of Social Islamists in Middle Eastern politics, and difficult to predict future behavior from Sciences at the United States Military Academy, the dilemma that poses for the United past actions, viewing the Brotherhood’s West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses States.1 recent actions as part of a longer process the Center’s global network of scholars and of accommodation illuminates some of practitioners to understand and confront the issues that will undoubtedly arise in contemporary threats posed by terrorism and 1 The Muslim Brotherhood is the world’s oldest and most the months ahead. other forms of political violence. influential Islamist group. Founded in Egypt by Hasan al- Banna in 1928, the group has since established branches throughout Middle Eastern and European countries. The The views expressed in this report are those of Brotherhood differs from jihadist groups in that the Broth- the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, erhood rejects violence as a means to alter society, instead the Department of the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. Government. advocating political participation and peaceful, long-term change. 1 FEBRUARY 2011 . VOL 4 . ISSUE 2 The Brotherhood in the Background debating, we would get maybe 25% of keen to be at the forefront.”9 Islamists The Brotherhood played a relatively the vote. Parties cannot compete under even have a phrase for this—the “American limited role in the demonstrations. a police state.”6 veto”—the notion that the United States, The group officially held back from and the world at large, is not yet ready participation in the “day of rage” The Brotherhood may be Egypt’s largest for Islamists in government. The memory protests on January 25, wary of opposition group with an estimated of Algeria—where the Western-backed associating with an enterprise that had 300,000 members and millions of military annulled parliamentary elections uncertain prospects for success.2 While sympathizers. The group is particularly after Islamists won—looms large. endorsing the demonstrations only on strong with the urban middle class, Friday, January 28, the Brotherhood among doctors, engineers, lawyers, and Thus, taking into account both remained in the background. As one other professions. Yet that does not capabilities and intentions, it is clear Brotherhood leader argued, “we are mean it would win a majority stake in that the Islamists will not be in a position not pushing this movement, but we elections—in part because that is not to control Egypt’s foreign policy. For a are moving with it. We don’t wish the group’s aim. group like the Brotherhood, attempting to lead it but we want to be part of to take the lead on controversial issues it.”3 Soon after, the Brotherhood Contrary to their image as a group such as the peace treaty with Israel deferred to secular opposition figure obsessed with power, the Brotherhood offers significant risks yet few benefits. Mohammed ElBaradei as the face of has historically been content to “run to The Brotherhood, as part of any post- the movement, falling in line with a place,” aiming simply for representation Mubarak political order, will be subject collection of other opposition groups.4 rather than control. Islamist groups to whatever pressures and constraints As the demonstrations gathered steam, often deliberately lose elections. Arab the United States and the international the Brotherhood went out of its way to community places on it. For instance, assure Western audiences that it did not “The events in Egypt any abrupt change in Egypt’s foreign seek to dominate Egypt’s post-Mubarak policy would risk not only the $1.5 political scene.5 pose greater long-term billion that the country receives from challenges to jihadist the United States, but also significant The Brotherhood in Power? assistance from the European Union, Any attempt to forecast the behavior groups than they do to the as well as the broader commercial ties of the Brotherhood in power should United States.” between Egypt and the West. rest on realistic assumptions of the group’s capabilities and intentions. The Brotherhood, however, is and will The group’s electoral dominance has remain a potent force in any Egyptian been overstated, largely due to regime Islamist parties in Egypt, Jordan, democracy that emerges. In other manipulation and stifling restrictions Morocco, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Yemen words, the Islamists are here to stay. imposed on other Egyptian political have, on average, chosen to contest Like any political organization, the actors. Allowing the Brotherhood less than 40% of the available seats Brotherhood will reflect the interests to emerge as the de facto face of in recent elections.7 In other words, and desires of its constituency, which the Egyptian opposition was crucial even if Islamists won every seat they will increase in importance as the group for Mubarak’s attempts to convince contested, they still would not gain a competes with others in the political Western audiences that he was all that majority. Even the Hamas victory in marketplace. Over time, this will drive stood in the way of an Islamist takeover. the Palestinian parliamentary elections the group to articulate a more distinctive As a leading member of the Brotherhood of 2006 came about more as a result foreign policy platform and attempt said in Cairo in 2006, “if there were free of Fatah’s lack of coordination and to influence the direction of Egypt’s elections with all groups competing and general disarray than from an attempt relations with Israel, its neighbors, by Hamas to take power.8 This caution and the international community. 2 Other factors likely playing into the Brotherhood’s de- is reflected in the January 31 comments Anticipating the coming changes, the cision were its recognition that the regime would seize of senior Brotherhood leader Mohamed United States should begin a serious the opportunity to portray any demonstration as an Is- el-Beltagui: “the Brotherhood realizes and sustained strategic dialogue with all lamist project, as well as perhaps a wariness to publicly the sensitivities, especially in the West, Egyptian opposition parties, including mobilize given the Christian-Muslim tension in the wake towards the Islamists, and we’re not the Muslim Brotherhood, both in order of the Alexandria church bombing on January 1, 2011. to communicate U.S. interests and 3 “Nobel Peace Winner Returns to Egypt to Lead Anti- 6 Personal interview, Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotouh, concerns, as well as to absorb theirs. Government Protest Movement,” Associated Press, Cairo, August 2006. January 27, 2011. 7 For more on why Islamists deliberately lose elections, Counterterrorism Implications 4 Margaret Coker and Summer Said, “Muslim Group see Shadi Hamid, “Arab Islamist Parties: Losing on Pur- There will be consequences for U.S. Backs Secular Struggle,” Wall Street Journal, January 31, pose?” Journal of Democracy 22:1 (2011); Steven Brooke, security interests following the fall 2011. “Running to Place: Alternative Explanations for Islamist of a key Arab ally. For instance, a 5 Essam el-Errian, “What the Muslim Brothers Want,” Political Behavior,” paper presented at the annual meet- democratically-elected government New York Times, February 9, 2011; Abdel Moneim Abou ing of the Southwest Political Science Association, 2010. in Egypt would undoubtedly reduce el-Fotouh, “Democracy Supporters Should Not Fear the 8 In particular, multiple candidates from Fatah would Muslim Brotherhood,” Washington Post, February 9, run for one seat, splitting the vote, while Hamas ensured 9 Jack Shenker, “Egypt Protesters Play Down Islamist 2011. only one candidate per district. Party’s Role,” Guardian, January 31, 2011. 2 FEBRUARY 2011 . VOL 4 . ISSUE 2 cooperation with Israel and the United Muslim youth in voter queues Brotherhood Faces Challenges Ahead States on the blockade of Gaza. Yet given before ballot boxes instead of Like any large organization, the that the blockade is deeply unpopular lining them up to fight in the cause Brotherhood contains multiple across all sectors of Egyptian, and of Allah.13 ideological trends: those desiring a indeed, Arab societies, this should not more explicit political orientation, those be surprising.