Climate change vulnerability assessment for Beung Kiat Ngong Ramsar Site, Lao PDR Peter John Meynell, Oudomxay Thongsavath, Khamphat Xeuasing, Vilavong Vannalath and Raphaël Glémet INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE The designation of geographical Copyright: Cover photo: entities in this publication and the © 2014 International Union for Women fishing in Beung Kiat presentation of the material do Conservation of Nature and Ngong Ramsar site, IUCN Lao not imply the expression of any Natural Resources PDR opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN or The Ministry for Foreign Resources: Photo credits: Affairs of Finland, concerning the Production of this publication for All photos © IUCN Lao PDR legal status of any country, educational or other non- territory or area, or of its commercial purposes is Available from: authorities, or concerning the authorized without prior written IUCN (International Union for delimitation of its frontiers or permission from the copyright Conservation of Nature) boundaries. holder provided the source is fully Lao PDR Country Office acknowledged. Reproduction of PO Box 4340 The views expressed in this this publication for resale or other 082/01 Fa Ngum Rd publication do not necessarily commercial purposes is Ban Wat Chan, reflect those of IUCN or The prohibited without prior written Vientiane, Lao PDR Ministry for Foreign Affairs of permission of the copyright Tel +856-21-216401 Finland. holder. Also available at: This publication has been made Citation: www.iucn.org/lao possible in part by the generous Meynell, P.J., Thongsavath, O., www.iucn.org/asia/mekong_dialo support of the Ministry for Xeuasing, K., Vannalath, V., and gues Foreign Affairs of Finland. Glémet, R. (2014).Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Published by: Beung Kiat Ngong Ramsar site, IUCN, Vientiane, Lao PDR Lao PDR Vientiane, Lao PDR: IUCN. 127pp. Climate change vulnerability assessment for Beung Kiat Ngong Ramsar site, Lao PDR Peter John Meynell, Oudomxay Thongsavath, Khamphat Xeuasing, Vilavong Vannalath and Raphaël Glémet February 2015 About IUCN IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, helps the world find pragmatic solutions to our most pressing environment and development challenges. IUCN‘s work focuses on valuing and conserving nature, ensuring effective and equitable governance of its use, and deploying nature-based solutions to global challenges in climate, food and development. IUCN supports scientific research, manages field projects all over the world, and brings governments, NGOs, the UN and companies together to develop policy, laws and best practice. IUCN is the world‘s oldest and largest global environmental organization, with more than 1,200 government and NGO members and almost 11,000 volunteer experts in some 160 countries. IUCN‘s work is supported by over 1,000 staff in 45 offices and hundreds of partners in public, NGO and private sectors around the world. About Mekong Water Dialogues The Mekong Water Dialogues is coordinated and facilitated by IUCN and supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. It was initiated to work with countries of the Mekong Region, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam, to improve water governance by facilitating transparent and inclusive decision-making to improve livelihood security, human and ecosystem health. ii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ vi Acronyms and abbreviations ............................................................................................ vii Executive summary ............................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 4 2 Methods ........................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Wetland and climate change case studies guidance ......................................... 6 2.2 Village consultations ............................................................................................ 8 2.2.1 Key questions – wetland resources ............................................................. 8 2.2.2 Climate patterns ............................................................................................. 8 2.2.3 Wetland and threats ....................................................................................... 9 2.3 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Methodology (CAM) ...................... 9 2.4 Determining ecological response to climate change ....................................... 15 2.4.1 Comfort zones .............................................................................................. 16 3 Description of Beung Kiat Ngong ............................................................................. 18 3.1 Location and site description ............................................................................ 18 3.2 Current and historic climate............................................................................... 19 3.3 Hydrological characteristics .............................................................................. 20 3.4 Wetland habitats ................................................................................................. 23 3.5 Changes in vegetation ........................................................................................ 25 3.6 Biodiversity - key species .................................................................................. 26 3.6.1 Flora .............................................................................................................. 26 3.6.2 Fish ............................................................................................................... 27 3.6.3 Molluscs ....................................................................................................... 29 3.6.4 Amphibians and Reptiles ............................................................................ 29 3.6.5 Birds ............................................................................................................. 30 3.6.6 Mammals ...................................................................................................... 30 3.7 Land use .............................................................................................................. 31 3.8 Conservation and zoning of Beung Kiat Ngong ............................................... 33 4 Communities and wetland livelihoods ..................................................................... 35 4.1 Communities and populations ........................................................................... 35 4.2 Key livelihood activities ..................................................................................... 36 4.3 Facilities .............................................................................................................. 37 4.4 Livestock ............................................................................................................. 38 4.5 Use of wetland products .................................................................................... 39 4.6 Perceived non-climate threats to wetland habitats and livelihoods ................ 43 iii 5 Community perceptions of climate change ............................................................. 45 5.1 Current climate and hydrology .......................................................................... 45 5.2 Historic extreme events ...................................................................................... 45 5.3 Perceptions of climate change .......................................................................... 46 5.4 Current coping strategies .................................................................................. 47 6 Future projections for climate change ..................................................................... 48 6.1 Climate projection methods ............................................................................... 48 6.2 Climate change projections to 2050 .................................................................. 49 6.2.1 Temperature ................................................................................................. 49 6.2.2 Rainfall .......................................................................................................... 55 6.2.3 Storms, droughts and extreme events ....................................................... 60 6.3 Hydrological changes in Beung Kiat Ngong ..................................................... 62 7 Vulnerability assessment for Beung Kiat Ngong ..................................................... 64 7.1 Wetland habitats ................................................................................................. 64 7.2 Wetland plant species ........................................................................................ 67 7.2.1 Sedges – Scirpus grossus .......................................................................... 67 7.2.2 Shrubs – Sesbania sesban .......................................................................... 68 7.2.3 Shrubs – Mimosa pigra ............................................................................... 69 7.2.4 Swamp forest trees – Barringtonia sp ........................................................ 69 7.3 Key species