TheAboriginalVotein2000

Achieving

an equitable position for Aboriginal
Peoples in Canadian society

Summary of Results

✔

8 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations of 10,000 or more.
✔ 29 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations of 5,000 or more. ✔ 45 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations in excess of 5% of total vote.
✔ In 22 ridings, the size of the Aboriginal vote exceeded margin of victory in the last election.

Note: The data contained in the following is based on Statistics Canada special runs.
Population numbers represent eligible voters. The figures underestimate population by at least 18%.

Regional Distribution

Aboriginal People account for 8.9% of all voters in Manitoba, 8.0% of the vote in Saskatchewan, 4.9% of voters in Alberta and 4.4% in British Columbia. In the North, Aboriginal People represent 56.7% of the electorate in the Northwest Territories, 21% in the Yukon, and 19.9% in Labrador. In northwestern Ontario and northwestern Quebec, they form close to 20% of the voting populations.

Aboriginal Voting Strength by Province

REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING AGE POPULATION, 2000

TOTAL VOTING POPULATION
ABORIGINAL
VOTE
ABORIGINAL VOTE AS % OF TOTAL
REGION

• #
• %
• #
• %

Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec

465,075 104,690 743,810 597,340
5,720,120 8,315,000
886,035 784,660
2,027,965 2,711,735
41,650
2.1% 0.5% 3.3%
9,185 1,270
15,335
9,250
103,770 175,855
79,070 62,405 98,845
120,135
23,615
4,630
1.3% 0.2% 2.2%

2.0% 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 8.9% 8.0% 4.9% 4.4%
56.7% 21.0%
3.1%

• 2.7%
• 1.3%

25.5% 37.1%
4.0% 3.5% 9.0%
12.1%
0.2% 0.1%
14.8% 25.0% 11.2%
8.9%
14.1% 17.1%
3.4%

Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Northwest Territories* Yukon

22,025
22,420,105
0.7%

TOTAL

• 100.0%
• 703,365 100.00%

SOURCE: Special Run on 1991 Census Database

Nunavut statistics are included in the Northwest Territories data.

1

Profile of Federal Electoral Districts

FEDERAL RIDINGS BY NUMBER OF ABORIGINAL VOTERS

184

200 180 160 140 120

88

100
80 60

29

40 20
0

• 5000 or more
• 1000-4999
• less than 1000

Federal Constituencies with 10,000 or more Aboriginal Voters

PROVINCE or TERRITORY
ABORIGINAL
VOTE
RIDING

Churchill Churchill River Skeena Kenora-Rainy River Abitibi Western Arctic Athabasca

• Manitoba
• 25,760

19,355 14,305 12,895 12,465 12,140 11,575 11,475
Saskatchewan British Columbia Ontario Quebec Northwest Territories Alberta

• Nunavut
• Nunavut

2

Federal Constituencies with 5,000 or more Aboriginal Voters

This table identifies the remaining 21 out of 29 ridings with 5,000 or more Aboriginal voters in 1997. These ridings account for 37% of the Aboriginal vote. The remaining 63% is distributed widely among other constituencies. The vast majority of these constituencies are in western Canada and the North.

The ridings with the largest number of voters are not in the territories, but in the forest belt of northwestern Ontario, the northern prairies and the interior of British Columbia.

A significant number of urban ridings in Winnipeg, Edmonton and some Saskatchewan communities have over 5,000 voters.

PROVINCE or TERRITORY
ABORIGINAL
VOTE
RIDING

• Peace River
• Alberta
• 8,840

Cariboo-Chilcotin Dauphin-Swan River Selkirk-Interlake Macleod Lakeland Winnipeg-North-Centre Winnipeg North Prince George-Bulkley Valley Edmonton-East Prince Albert Qu’Appelle Algoma Prince George-Peace River Pontiac-Gatineau-Labelle Vancouver Island North Battlefords-Lloydminster Timmins-James Bay Edmonton West
British Columbia Manitoba Manitoba Alberta Alberta
8,350 7,870 7,510 7,375 7,365 7,295 7,210 7,150 6,830 6,700 6,630 6,475 6,360 6,220 5,995 5,900 5,750 5,750 5,315 5,045
Manitoba Manitoba British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Saskatchewan Ontario British Columbia Quebec British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario Alberta British Columbia Ontario
Nanaimo-Cowichan Thunder Bay-Nipigon

3

Priority Constituencies

The significance of the Aboriginal vote cannot be measured only by size of voting population but also its relative importance.

We calculated the number of constituencies where the Aboriginal vote accounts for 5% or more of eligible voters. There are a total of 45 such constituencies in Canada in 2000.

These constituencies include all the 29 with 5,000 or more Aboriginal voters and several additional ones. Again, most are found in the west and the north. But there are a significant number of such constituencies in Ontario; 3 in Quebec, and 1 in Labrador, but none in the Maritime Provinces.

We ranked these constituencies based on the ratio of the Aboriginal vote in 2000 relative to the margin of victory of the winning candidate in 1997. This gives us an idea of the importance of the Aboriginal vote to the election outcome.

In 22 constituencies, the Aboriginal vote in 2000 is larger than the margin of victory in 1997.

PRIORITY CONSTITUENCIES

RATIO ABO VOTERS/
PARTY 2^nd VOTERS MARGIN of
PROV % of ABO WINNING OR VOTERS PARTY
MARGIN of
# of ABO
% of
RIDING
Selkirk—Interlake Churchill River Churchill

• TERR (2000)
• (1997)

CA

• VOTE VICTORY
• (1997)

LIB

• (2000)
• VICTORY

MB. SK

• 11.9%
• 28.3%

34.5% 41.2% 28.9% 45.9% 40.9% 43.7% 43.4% 41.6% 42.4% 38.1% 50.6% 41.9% 42.3% 47.1% 36.1% 44.6% 54.6% 35.5%
66
538
7,510

113.79

47.2% 47.6% 21.0% 81.0% 11.5% 17.4%
6.1%

• LIB
• CA
• 19,355

25,760
4,630
11,475
7,210
12,465
5,750
12,140 14,305
6,700 4,720
12,895
4,950 3,985 4,650 6,830
11,575
7,870

35.98
9.32 9.10 7.33 6.65 4.73 4.08 4.07 4.04 3.21 3.01 3.00 2.69 2.60 2.46 1.97 1.75 1.58

MB YT
NDP NDP LIB
2,764
509
LIB

Yukon

CA

Nunavut

• NT
• 1,565

1,084 2,635 1,410 2,985 3,539 2,090 1,567 4,302 1,838 1,532 1,894 3,470 6,607 4,972
PC

Winnipeg Centre Abitibi

MB PQ AB
NDP LIB
LIB BQ

Edmonton West Western Arctic Skeena

• LIB
• CA

NWT BC SK. NF
44.2% 23.1% 11.4% 19.9% 21.4%
5.6%

• LIB
• NDP

NDP NDP NDP CA
CA

Prince Albert Labrador

CA LIB

Kenora—Rainy River Vancouver East Manicouagan Kamloops

ON BC PQ BC AB
LIB NDP BQ
LIB

• 8.9%
• LIB

• 6.5%
• NDP

CA
LIB

Edmonton East Athabasca

• 7.4%
• LIB

• AB
• 18.7%

12.6%

• CA
• LIB

Dauphin—Swan River

• MB
• CA
• PC

4

PRIORITY CONSTITUENCIES (CONT.)

% OF ABO
VOTERS PARTY

RATIO ABO
# OF ABO VOTERS/

PROV or

• WINNING
• MARGIN

• OF
• % OF

PARTY 2^nd VOTERS MARGIN OF
RIDING
Saskatoon—Rosetown Qu'Appelle

• TERR (2000)
• (1997)

NDP NDP CA

• VOTE VICTORY
• (1997)

CA
(2000)

VICTORY

SK SK SK MB ON ON PQ BC SK BC AB BC ON BC ON ON AB AB BC BC BC AB MB ON PQ MB

• 8.7%
• 43.7%

42.4% 42.7% 50.3% 41.3% 50.3% 45.8% 51.1% 39.2% 54.3% 58.9% 45.0% 42.7% 47.5% 44.5% 51.8% 59.3% 68.0% 53.1% 66.9% 49.9% 64.8% 51.2%
3,084 4,485
4,820

1.56

11.7% 10.4% 11.3% 10.5%
9.2% 8.1%
14.0%
5.9%
10.5% 10.9%
6.4% 5.4% 7.7% 5.0% 7.6% 9.4%
11.8%
6.6% 9.1% 6.0% 7.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0%

• CA
• 6,630

5,900 7,295 6,475 5,750 6,220 8,350 3,465 7,150 8,840 5,315 3,415 5,995 3,360 5,045 7,365 7,375 4,815 6,360 4,635 4,815 3,500 3,440 3,895 3,345

1.48 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.18 0.91 0.88 0.85 0.69 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.24 0.23
Battlefords—Lloydminster Winnipeg North Centre Algoma

• 4,590
• NDP

• LIB
• NDP

LIB LIB LIB CA
5,862

• 5,457
• CA

Timmins—James Bay Pontiac—Gatineau--Labelle Cariboo—Chilcotin Wanuskewin

• 4,884
• NDP

• BQ
• 6,839

• 9,515
• LIB

• CA
• 4,061
• NDP

LIB

Prince George-Bulkley Valley Peace River

• CA
• 10,435

15,110
9,573

• CA
• LIB

Nanaimo--Cowichan Thunder Bay--Atikokan Vancouver Island North Sault Ste. Marie

• CA
• NDP

NDP NDP NDP NDP PC
LIB CA
6,170
11,617

• 6,585
• LIB

LIB CA

Thunder Bay--Nipigon Lakeland

10,040 16,238 18,670 12,329 16,587 13,907 16,642 12,285 12,396 15,913 14,289

Macleod

• CA
• PC

Okanagan—Coquihalla Prince George--Peace River Nanaimo—Alberni Yellowhead

• CA
• LIB

• CA
• LIB

• CA
• NDP

• LIB
• CA

Saint Boniface

LIB LIB LIB LIB
NDP

Nipissing (By-election) Hull--Aylmer (By-election) Winnipeg South Centre

• 55.9%
• NDP

5