The Aboriginal Vote in 2000 Achieving an equitable position for Aboriginal Peoples in Canadian society Summary of Results ✔ 8 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations of 10,000 or more. ✔ 29 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations of 5,000 or more. ✔ 45 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations in excess of 5% of total vote. ✔ In 22 ridings, the size of the Aboriginal vote exceeded margin of victory in the last election. Note: The data contained in the following is based on Statistics Canada special runs. Population numbers represent eligible voters. The figures underestimate population by at least 18%. Regional Distribution Aboriginal People account for 8.9% of all voters in Manitoba, 8.0% of the vote in Saskatchewan, 4.9% of voters in Alberta and 4.4% in British Columbia. In the North, Aboriginal People represent 56.7% of the electorate in the Northwest Territories, 21% in the Yukon, and 19.9% in Labrador. In northwestern Ontario and northwestern Quebec, they form close to 20% of the voting populations. Aboriginal Voting Strength by Province REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING AGE POPULATION, 2000 TOTAL VOTING ABORIGINAL ABORIGINAL REGION POPULATION VOTE VOTE AS % # % # % OF TOTAL Newfoundland 465,075 2.1% 9,185 1.3% 2.0% Prince Edward Island 104,690 0.5% 1,270 0.2% 1.2% Nova Scotia 743,810 3.3% 15,335 2.2% 2.1% New Brunswick 597,340 2.7% 9,250 1.3% 1.6% Quebec 5,720,120 25.5% 103,770 14.8% 1.8% Ontario 8,315,000 37.1% 175,855 25.0% 2.1% Manitoba 886,035 4.0% 79,070 11.2% 8.9% Saskatchewan 784,660 3.5% 62,405 8.9% 8.0% Alberta 2,027,965 9.0% 98,845 14.1% 4.9% British Columbia 2,711,735 12.1% 120,135 17.1% 4.4% Northwest Territories* 41,650 0.2% 23,615 3.4% 56.7% Yukon 22,025 0.1% 4,630 0.7% 21.0% TOTAL 22,420,105 100.0% 703,365 100.00% 3.1% SOURCE: Special Run on 1991 Census Database Nunavut statistics are included in the Northwest Territories data. 1 Profile of Federal Electoral Districts FEDERAL RIDINGS BY NUMBER OF ABORIGINAL VOTERS 184 200 180 160 140 120 88 100 80 60 29 40 Number of Ridings Number 20 0 5000 or more 1000-4999 less than 1000 Federal Constituencies with 10,000 or more Aboriginal Voters PROVINCE or ABORIGINAL RIDING TERRITORY VOTE Churchill Manitoba 25,760 Churchill River Saskatchewan 19,355 Skeena British Columbia 14,305 Kenora-Rainy River Ontario 12,895 Abitibi Quebec 12,465 Western Arctic Northwest Territories 12,140 Athabasca Alberta 11,575 Nunavut Nunavut 11,475 2 Federal Constituencies with 5,000 or more Aboriginal Voters This table identifies the remaining 21 out of 29 ridings with 5,000 or more Aboriginal voters in 1997. These ridings account for 37% of the Aboriginal vote. The remaining 63% is distributed widely among other constituencies. The vast majority of these constituencies are in western Canada and the North. The ridings with the largest number of voters are not in the territories, but in the forest belt of northwestern Ontario, the northern prairies and the interior of British Columbia. A significant number of urban ridings in Winnipeg, Edmonton and some Saskatchewan communities have over 5,000 voters. PROVINCE or ABORIGINAL RIDING TERRITORY VOTE Peace River Alberta 8,840 Cariboo-Chilcotin British Columbia 8,350 Dauphin-Swan River Manitoba 7,870 Selkirk-Interlake Manitoba 7,510 Macleod Alberta 7,375 Lakeland Alberta 7,365 Winnipeg-North-Centre Manitoba 7,295 Winnipeg North Manitoba 7,210 Prince George-Bulkley Valley British Columbia 7,150 Edmonton-East Alberta 6,830 Prince Albert Saskatchewan 6,700 Qu’Appelle Saskatchewan 6,630 Algoma Ontario 6,475 Prince George-Peace River British Columbia 6,360 Pontiac-Gatineau-Labelle Quebec 6,220 Vancouver Island North British Columbia 5,995 Battlefords-Lloydminster Saskatchewan 5,900 Timmins-James Bay Ontario 5,750 Edmonton West Alberta 5,750 Nanaimo-Cowichan British Columbia 5,315 Thunder Bay-Nipigon Ontario 5,045 3 Priority Constituencies The significance of the Aboriginal vote cannot be measured only by size of voting population but also its relative importance. We calculated the number of constituencies where the Aboriginal vote accounts for 5% or more of eligible voters. There are a total of 45 such constituencies in Canada in 2000. These constituencies include all the 29 with 5,000 or more Aboriginal voters and several additional ones. Again, most are found in the west and the north. But there are a significant number of such constituencies in Ontario; 3 in Quebec, and 1 in Labrador, but none in the Maritime Provinces. We ranked these constituencies based on the ratio of the Aboriginal vote in 2000 relative to the margin of victory of the winning candidate in 1997. This gives us an idea of the importance of the Aboriginal vote to the election outcome. In 22 constituencies, the Aboriginal vote in 2000 is larger than the margin of victory in 1997. PRIORITY CONSTITUENCIES RATIO ABO PROV % of ABO WINNING MARGIN # of ABO VOTERS/ OR VOTERS PARTY % of of PARTY 2nd VOTERS MARGIN of RIDING TERR (2000) (1997) VOTE VICTORY (1997) (2000) VICTORY Selkirk—Interlake MB. 11.9% CA 28.3% 66 LIB 7,510 113.79 Churchill River SK 47.2% LIB 34.5% 538 CA 19,355 35.98 Churchill MB 47.6% NDP 41.2% 2,764 LIB 25,760 9.32 Yukon YT 21.0% NDP 28.9% 509 CA 4,630 9.10 Nunavut NT 81.0% LIB 45.9% 1,565 PC 11,475 7.33 Winnipeg Centre MB 11.5% NDP 40.9% 1,084 LIB 7,210 6.65 Abitibi PQ 17.4% LIB 43.7% 2,635 BQ 12,465 4.73 Edmonton West AB 6.1% LIB 43.4% 1,410 CA 5,750 4.08 Western Arctic NWT 44.2% LIB 41.6% 2,985 NDP 12,140 4.07 Skeena BC 23.1% CA 42.4% 3,539 NDP 14,305 4.04 Prince Albert SK. 11.4% CA 38.1% 2,090 NDP 6,700 3.21 Labrador NF 19.9% LIB 50.6% 1,567 NDP 4,720 3.01 Kenora—Rainy River ON 21.4% LIB 41.9% 4,302 CA 12,895 3.00 Vancouver East BC 5.6% NDP 42.3% 1,838 LIB 4,950 2.69 Manicouagan PQ 8.9% BQ 47.1% 1,532 LIB 3,985 2.60 Kamloops BC 6.5% NDP 36.1% 1,894 LIB 4,650 2.46 Edmonton East AB 7.4% CA 44.6% 3,470 LIB 6,830 1.97 Athabasca AB 18.7% CA 54.6% 6,607 LIB 11,575 1.75 Dauphin—Swan River MB 12.6% CA 35.5% 4,972 PC 7,870 1.58 4 PRIORITY CONSTITUENCIES (CONT.) % OF RATIO ABO PROV ABO WINNING MARGIN # OF ABO VOTERS/ or VOTERS PARTY % OF OF PARTY 2nd VOTERS MARGIN OF RIDING TERR (2000) (1997) VOTE VICTORY (1997) (2000) VICTORY Saskatoon—Rosetown SK 8.7% NDP 43.7% 3,084 CA 4,820 1.56 Qu'Appelle SK 11.7% NDP 42.4% 4,485 CA 6,630 1.48 Battlefords—Lloydminster SK 10.4% CA 42.7% 4,590 NDP 5,900 1.29 Winnipeg North Centre MB 11.3% NDP 50.3% 5,862 LIB 7,295 1.24 Algoma ON 10.5% LIB 41.3% 5,457 CA 6,475 1.19 Timmins—James Bay ON 9.2% LIB 50.3% 4,884 NDP 5,750 1.18 Pontiac—Gatineau--Labelle PQ 8.1% LIB 45.8% 6,839 BQ 6,220 0.91 Cariboo—Chilcotin BC 14.0% CA 51.1% 9,515 LIB 8,350 0.88 Wanuskewin SK 5.9% CA 39.2% 4,061 NDP 3,465 0.85 Prince George-Bulkley Valley BC 10.5% CA 54.3% 10,435 LIB 7,150 0.69 Peace River AB 10.9% CA 58.9% 15,110 LIB 8,840 0.59 Nanaimo--Cowichan BC 6.4% CA 45.0% 9,573 NDP 5,315 0.56 Thunder Bay--Atikokan ON 5.4% LIB 42.7% 6,170 NDP 3,415 0.55 Vancouver Island North BC 7.7% CA 47.5% 11,617 NDP 5,995 0.52 Sault Ste. Marie ON 5.0% LIB 44.5% 6,585 NDP 3,360 0.51 Thunder Bay--Nipigon ON 7.6% LIB 51.8% 10,040 NDP 5,045 0.50 Lakeland AB 9.4% CA 59.3% 16,238 PC 7,365 0.45 Macleod AB 11.8% CA 68.0% 18,670 PC 7,375 0.40 Okanagan—Coquihalla BC 6.6% CA 53.1% 12,329 LIB 4,815 0.39 Prince George--Peace River BC 9.1% CA 66.9% 16,587 LIB 6,360 0.38 Nanaimo—Alberni BC 6.0% CA 49.9% 13,907 NDP 4,635 0.33 Yellowhead AB 7.0% CA 64.8% 16,642 LIB 4,815 0.29 Saint Boniface MB 5.2% LIB 51.2% 12,285 NDP 3,500 0.28 Nipissing (By-election) ON 5.5% LIB 12,396 3,440 0.28 Hull--Aylmer (By-election) PQ 5.0% LIB 15,913 3,895 0.24 Winnipeg South Centre MB 5.0% LIB 55.9% 14,289 NDP 3,345 0.23 5.