The Aboriginal Vote in 2000

TheAboriginalVotein2000 Achieving an equitable position for Aboriginal Peoples in Canadian society Summary of Results ✔8 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations of 10,000 or more. ✔ 29 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations of 5,000 or more. ✔ 45 ridings will have Aboriginal voting age populations in excess of 5% of total vote. ✔ In 22 ridings, the size of the Aboriginal vote exceeded margin of victory in the last election. Note: The data contained in the following is based on Statistics Canada special runs. Population numbers represent eligible voters. The figures underestimate population by at least 18%. Regional Distribution Aboriginal People account for 8.9% of all voters in Manitoba, 8.0% of the vote in Saskatchewan, 4.9% of voters in Alberta and 4.4% in British Columbia. In the North, Aboriginal People represent 56.7% of the electorate in the Northwest Territories, 21% in the Yukon, and 19.9% in Labrador. In northwestern Ontario and northwestern Quebec, they form close to 20% of the voting populations. Aboriginal Voting Strength by Province REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF VOTING AGE POPULATION, 2000 TOTAL VOTING POPULATION ABORIGINAL VOTE ABORIGINAL VOTE AS % OF TOTAL REGION <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">#</li><li style="flex:1">%</li><li style="flex:1">#</li><li style="flex:1">%</li></ul>Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec 465,075 104,690 743,810 597,340 5,720,120 8,315,000 886,035 784,660 2,027,965 2,711,735 41,650 2.1% 0.5% 3.3% 9,185 1,270 15,335 9,250 103,770 175,855 79,070 62,405 98,845 120,135 23,615 4,630 1.3% 0.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 8.9% 8.0% 4.9% 4.4% 56.7% 21.0% 3.1% <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">2.7% </li><li style="flex:1">1.3% </li></ul>25.5% 37.1% 4.0% 3.5% 9.0% 12.1% 0.2% 0.1% 14.8% 25.0% 11.2% 8.9% 14.1% 17.1% 3.4% Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Northwest Territories* Yukon 22,025 22,420,105 0.7% TOTAL <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">100.0% </li><li style="flex:1">703,365 100.00% </li></ul>SOURCE: Special Run on 1991 Census Database Nunavut statistics are included in the Northwest Territories data. 1Profile of Federal Electoral Districts FEDERAL RIDINGS BY NUMBER OF ABORIGINAL VOTERS 184 200 180 160 140 120 88 100 80 60 29 40 20 0<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">5000 or more </li><li style="flex:1">1000-4999 </li><li style="flex:1">less than 1000 </li></ul>Federal Constituencies with 10,000 or more Aboriginal Voters PROVINCE or TERRITORY ABORIGINAL VOTE RIDING Churchill Churchill River Skeena Kenora-Rainy River Abitibi Western Arctic Athabasca <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Manitoba </li><li style="flex:1">25,760 </li></ul>19,355 14,305 12,895 12,465 12,140 11,575 11,475 Saskatchewan British Columbia Ontario Quebec Northwest Territories Alberta <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Nunavut </li><li style="flex:1">Nunavut </li></ul>2Federal Constituencies with 5,000 or more Aboriginal Voters This table identifies the remaining 21 out of 29 ridings with 5,000 or more Aboriginal voters in 1997. These ridings account for 37% of the Aboriginal vote. The remaining 63% is distributed widely among other constituencies. The vast majority of these constituencies are in western Canada and the North. The ridings with the largest number of voters are not in the territories, but in the forest belt of northwestern Ontario, the northern prairies and the interior of British Columbia. A significant number of urban ridings in Winnipeg, Edmonton and some Saskatchewan communities have over 5,000 voters. PROVINCE or TERRITORY ABORIGINAL VOTE RIDING <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Peace River </li><li style="flex:1">Alberta </li><li style="flex:1">8,840 </li></ul>Cariboo-Chilcotin Dauphin-Swan River Selkirk-Interlake Macleod Lakeland Winnipeg-North-Centre Winnipeg North Prince George-Bulkley Valley Edmonton-East Prince Albert Qu’Appelle Algoma Prince George-Peace River Pontiac-Gatineau-Labelle Vancouver Island North Battlefords-Lloydminster Timmins-James Bay Edmonton West British Columbia Manitoba Manitoba Alberta Alberta 8,350 7,870 7,510 7,375 7,365 7,295 7,210 7,150 6,830 6,700 6,630 6,475 6,360 6,220 5,995 5,900 5,750 5,750 5,315 5,045 Manitoba Manitoba British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Saskatchewan Ontario British Columbia Quebec British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario Alberta British Columbia Ontario Nanaimo-Cowichan Thunder Bay-Nipigon 3Priority Constituencies The significance of the Aboriginal vote cannot be measured only by size of voting population but also its relative importance. We calculated the number of constituencies where the Aboriginal vote accounts for 5% or more of eligible voters. There are a total of 45 such constituencies in Canada in 2000. These constituencies include all the 29 with 5,000 or more Aboriginal voters and several additional ones. Again, most are found in the west and the north. But there are a significant number of such constituencies in Ontario; 3 in Quebec, and 1 in Labrador, but none in the Maritime Provinces. We ranked these constituencies based on the ratio of the Aboriginal vote in 2000 relative to the margin of victory of the winning candidate in 1997. This gives us an idea of the importance of the Aboriginal vote to the election outcome. In 22 constituencies, the Aboriginal vote in 2000 is larger than the margin of victory in 1997. PRIORITY CONSTITUENCIES RATIO ABO VOTERS/ PARTY 2nd VOTERS MARGIN of PROV % of ABO WINNING OR VOTERS PARTY MARGIN of # of ABO % of RIDING Selkirk—Interlake Churchill River Churchill <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">TERR (2000) </li><li style="flex:1">(1997) </li></ul>CA <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">VOTE VICTORY </li><li style="flex:1">(1997) </li></ul>LIB <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">(2000) </li><li style="flex:1">VICTORY </li></ul>MB. SK <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">11.9% </li><li style="flex:1">28.3% </li></ul>34.5% 41.2% 28.9% 45.9% 40.9% 43.7% 43.4% 41.6% 42.4% 38.1% 50.6% 41.9% 42.3% 47.1% 36.1% 44.6% 54.6% 35.5% 66 538 7,510 113.79 47.2% 47.6% 21.0% 81.0% 11.5% 17.4% 6.1% <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">LIB </li><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">19,355 </li></ul>25,760 4,630 11,475 7,210 12,465 5,750 12,140 14,305 6,700 4,720 12,895 4,950 3,985 4,650 6,830 11,575 7,870 35.98 9.32 9.10 7.33 6.65 4.73 4.08 4.07 4.04 3.21 3.01 3.00 2.69 2.60 2.46 1.97 1.75 1.58 MB YT NDP NDP LIB 2,764 509 LIB Yukon CA Nunavut <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">NT </li><li style="flex:1">1,565 </li></ul>1,084 2,635 1,410 2,985 3,539 2,090 1,567 4,302 1,838 1,532 1,894 3,470 6,607 4,972 PC Winnipeg Centre Abitibi MB PQ AB NDP LIB LIB BQ Edmonton West Western Arctic Skeena <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">LIB </li><li style="flex:1">CA </li></ul>NWT BC SK. NF 44.2% 23.1% 11.4% 19.9% 21.4% 5.6% <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">LIB </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul>NDP NDP NDP CA CA Prince Albert Labrador CA LIB Kenora—Rainy River Vancouver East Manicouagan Kamloops ON BC PQ BC AB LIB NDP BQ LIB <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">8.9% </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">6.5% </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul>CA LIB Edmonton East Athabasca <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">7.4% </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">AB </li><li style="flex:1">18.7% </li></ul>12.6% <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul>Dauphin—Swan River <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">MB </li><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">PC </li></ul>4PRIORITY CONSTITUENCIES (CONT.) % OF ABO VOTERS PARTY RATIO ABO # OF ABO VOTERS/ PROV or <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">WINNING </li><li style="flex:1">MARGIN </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">OF </li><li style="flex:1">% OF </li></ul>PARTY 2nd VOTERS MARGIN OF RIDING Saskatoon—Rosetown Qu'Appelle <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">TERR (2000) </li><li style="flex:1">(1997) </li></ul>NDP NDP CA <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">VOTE VICTORY </li><li style="flex:1">(1997) </li></ul>CA (2000) VICTORY SK SK SK MB ON ON PQ BC SK BC AB BC ON BC ON ON AB AB BC BC BC AB MB ON PQ MB <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">8.7% </li><li style="flex:1">43.7% </li></ul>42.4% 42.7% 50.3% 41.3% 50.3% 45.8% 51.1% 39.2% 54.3% 58.9% 45.0% 42.7% 47.5% 44.5% 51.8% 59.3% 68.0% 53.1% 66.9% 49.9% 64.8% 51.2% 3,084 4,485 4,820 1.56 11.7% 10.4% 11.3% 10.5% 9.2% 8.1% 14.0% 5.9% 10.5% 10.9% 6.4% 5.4% 7.7% 5.0% 7.6% 9.4% 11.8% 6.6% 9.1% 6.0% 7.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">6,630 </li></ul>5,900 7,295 6,475 5,750 6,220 8,350 3,465 7,150 8,840 5,315 3,415 5,995 3,360 5,045 7,365 7,375 4,815 6,360 4,635 4,815 3,500 3,440 3,895 3,345 1.48 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.18 0.91 0.88 0.85 0.69 0.59 0.56 0.55 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.24 0.23 Battlefords—Lloydminster Winnipeg North Centre Algoma <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">4,590 </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">LIB </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul>LIB LIB LIB CA 5,862 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">5,457 </li><li style="flex:1">CA </li></ul>Timmins—James Bay Pontiac—Gatineau--Labelle Cariboo—Chilcotin Wanuskewin <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">4,884 </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">BQ </li><li style="flex:1">6,839 </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">9,515 </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">4,061 </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul>LIB Prince George-Bulkley Valley Peace River <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">10,435 </li></ul>15,110 9,573 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul>Nanaimo--Cowichan Thunder Bay--Atikokan Vancouver Island North Sault Ste. Marie <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul>NDP NDP NDP NDP PC LIB CA 6,170 11,617 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">6,585 </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul>LIB CA Thunder Bay--Nipigon Lakeland 10,040 16,238 18,670 12,329 16,587 13,907 16,642 12,285 12,396 15,913 14,289 Macleod <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">PC </li></ul>Okanagan—Coquihalla Prince George--Peace River Nanaimo—Alberni Yellowhead <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">LIB </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">CA </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">LIB </li><li style="flex:1">CA </li></ul>Saint Boniface LIB LIB LIB LIB NDP Nipissing (By-election) Hull--Aylmer (By-election) Winnipeg South Centre <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">55.9% </li><li style="flex:1">NDP </li></ul>5

The Aboriginal Vote in 2000

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