Final Report for AAA-FTS Rating Project MIT AgeLab Technical Report: 2013-27C Proposed System for the Objective Evaluation of the Safety Benefits of Technologies and Initial Rating Values Bruce Mehler, Bryan Reimer, Martin Lavallière, Jonathan Dobres, & Joseph F. Coughlin Initial Report: December 31, 2013 Revised: June 20, 2014 The AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety tasked the MIT AgeLab with developing a data- driven system for rating new in-vehicle technologies, analogous to NCAP crashworthiness, but extended to scalar evaluations of the objective safety benefits of emerging safety technologies (e.g., adaptive headlights, back-up cameras, lane-departure warning). Such a system was envisioned as having the potential to educate and guide consumers towards more confident and strategic purchasing decisions that may enhance automotive safety. Moreover, an evaluation of the status and extent of existing data on these safety systems was seen as a way of identifying possible research gaps in the present state of knowledge. This report provides an overview of key project activities and observations made to date. It then details the concepts and methods upon which the proposed rating system is based. The system is further developed by applying it to the rating of a set of seven safety relevant technologies. The resulting ratings and documentation concerning the data used in making the ratings provide insight into the current status of our understanding of the actual safety benefits of the technologies. These initial ratings also provide a means of evaluating the extent to which the current scaling methodology and values appear to meet the project objectives. Possible reasons for considering adjustment of present scaling values and other rating relevant issues are discussed. Extensive background material and supporting documentation is provided in appendices and as associated documents. Lead Project Contact: Bryan Reimer, Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology > AgeLab > 77 Massachusetts Ave, E40-291, Cambridge, MA 02139 Phone: 617.452.2177 > fax: 617.258.7570 > [email protected] > agelab.mit.edu Proposed System for Objective Rating of Safety Technologies Proposed System for the Objective Evaluation of the Safety Benefits of Technologies and Initial Rating Values Table of Contents Executive Overview....................................................................................................... 5 Project Objectives ......................................................................................................... 7 Overview of Key Project Activities .............................................................................. 7 Selected Observations on the Development of a Rating System ........................... 11 Of Factors and Scaling: An Evolving View ........................................................................11 Rating a Technology Class vs. Specific Vehicle Implementations ..................................12 Selected Materials Developed During the Course of the Project .....................................13 Factor Identification ...........................................................................................................13 Research Notebooks .........................................................................................................13 Technology Review sheets ................................................................................................14 Educational Support Material.............................................................................................16 Key Concepts in Proposed Rating System ............................................................... 17 Projected vs. Demonstrated Benefit .......................................................................... 17 Rating Types: Overall Safety Benefit & Scenario Specific ...................................... 18 Scaling Details ............................................................................................................. 18 Scaling Theoretical vs. Observed Benefits .......................................................................19 Scaling Overall Benefit vs. Scenario Specific Benefits ....................................................19 Proposed Scaling Values ........................................................................................... 20 Extracted Values from Rating Sources ..................................................................... 20 Reference Technologies .....................................................................................................20 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) ......................................................................................21 Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) ..........................................................................................22 Primary Technologies .........................................................................................................23 Adaptive Headlights ..........................................................................................................23 Back-Up / Rear-View Cameras ..........................................................................................24 Forward Collision Warning (FCW) .....................................................................................25 Forward Collision Mitigation (FCM) / Collision Imminent Braking (FCB) / Autobrake .........26 Lane Departure Warning (LDW) ........................................................................................27 ©MIT AgeLab 2014 Revised Final Project Report (6/20/2014) Page 2 of 170 Proposed System for Objective Rating of Safety Technologies Conceptual Presentation of the Rating Matrix .......................................................... 28 A. Top Level Matrix with Initial Ratings – Potential & Observed Benefit Scaled Separately ............................................................................................................................30 B. Top Level Matrix with Initial Ratings – Combined Scaling with Scenario Detail ........31 C. Top Level Matrix with Initial Ratings – Combined Scaling of Potential & Observed Benefit ..................................................................................................................................32 D. Top Level Matrix with Initial Ratings – Potential & Observed Benefit Scaled Separately (All Solid Diamonds) ........................................................................................33 Initial Observations ..................................................................................................... 34 Availability of Objective Data .............................................................................................34 Current Scaling ...................................................................................................................35 Limitations / Points to Keep in Mind .......................................................................... 37 Next Steps .................................................................................................................... 41 Acknowledgements & Responsibility Statement ..................................................... 42 Combined References ................................................................................................ 43 Appendix A: Rational Scaling Structure for Level Scaling ...................................... 52 Appendix B: Advisory Panel ...................................................................................... 53 Appendix C – Technology Review sheets ................................................................. 55 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) ......................................................................................56 Adaptive (Automatic) Cruise Control (ACC) ......................................................................63 Adaptive Headlights ............................................................................................................70 Back-Up / Rear-View Cameras ...........................................................................................76 Forward Collision Warning (FCW) .....................................................................................85 Forward Collision Mitigation (FCM) / Collision Imminent Braking / Autobrake ..............90 Lane Departure Warning (LDW) .........................................................................................97 Appendix D – Educational Support Materials ......................................................... 105 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) ....................................................................................106 Adaptive (Automatic) Cruise Control (ACC) ....................................................................108 Adaptive Headlights ..........................................................................................................110 Back-Up Cameras .............................................................................................................112 Forward Collision Warning (FCW) ...................................................................................114 Forward Collision Mitigation (FCM) / Braking ................................................................. 116 Lane Departure Warning (LDW) .......................................................................................118 ©MIT AgeLab 2014 Revised Final Project Report (6/20/2014) Page 3 of 170 Proposed