France and Japan in Space: Niche Market Players, with Evolving Assets and Roles by Damon R. Wells B.S., University of Oklahoma (1984) Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 1991 @ Damon R. Wells, 1991. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Author......................:'...... ... ::............................. ........ Department of Aýetics and Astronautics August, 1991 Certified by ................................................ .................. ..... Leon Trilling Professor, Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor Certified by .......................... ... ... Os......... ... .. Daniel F.Hastings Assoc. Professor, Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor Accepted by...... * .......... .• ..... ;.•...... * .. -..-..'. ......... Prof. Richard de Neufville ,, Cqhajr anjTechnology and Policy Program A A. r1A.L.~j~L.~LL U)..... .U .. P6f: HUirold Y. Wachman Chairman, Departmental Graduate Committee SEP- 21 4 1991 Aam France and Japan in Space: Niche Market Players, with Evolving Assets and Roles by Damon R. Wells Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on August, 1991, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY Abstract This thesis examines the nature, capabilities, and growth policies of the increasingly successful French and Japanese space programs, with an emphasis on their strate- gies for competing with the larger U.S. and Soviet programs. Toward that end, information and analyses are first presented with respect to the context and policy environment for the programs, including such issues as program structure, funding patterns, overall program goals, and the more general trends in each nation regard- ing high technology policies. The U.S. program is used throughout this portion of the research as a base of reference for the characteristics and capabilities of a large public sector program. Following this analysis of general program characteristics and policies, evaluations of the specific technological capabilities and strategies of the two programs are provided in relation to a range of space technology areas. Through the evidence presented in this work, it is shown that the French and Japanese space programs have achieved notable levels of success through the pursuit of specific niche capabilities and related niche markets, particularly in areas where the U.S. position is weak. Despite this general similarity in overall nature, it is also demonstrated that the niche development strategies of the two programs have been different in both form and outcome, with the Japanese program emphasizing value- added markets and positioning for future applications of specific niche technologies, and the French program focusing on the attempted near term commercialization of integrated systems. The implications of these approaches for longer term growth are also considered, with the eventual conclusion that the programs will remain niche market players for the foreseeable future. Thesis Supervisor: Leon Trilling Title: Professor, Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor: Daniel E. Hastings Title: Assoc. Professor, Aeronautics and Astronautics Acknowledgments The first acknowledgments for this work appropriately go to my two advisors, Prof. Hastings and Prof. Trilling, who offered useful advise and guidance throughout the project and showed unlimited patience at the end, despite difficult schedules. Special thanks goes to Prof. Hastings for providing the opportunity to work in this area of space policy for my two years at MIT. I would also like to thank James, Ann, and Bridget for making these years at school more enjoyable through their friendship, and for always remaining flexible. Special recognition is also warranted for Steve and Sharon, Marta, Randy, and Scott - true friends who have always provided encouragement and support. These years would have been far more difficult without their belief and understanding. Finally, I would like to thank my family - Brian, Amber, Sherry, and most im- portantly, my parents, who have always encouraged me to do my best and presented a shining example of how to approach life. This strange odyssey would have seemed impossible without your faith, unfailing support, fellowship, and willingness to talk at unimaginable hours of the night. Contents Introduction and Basic Argument 6 The Evolution of Three Programs 12 An Overview of Current Program Structure and Facilities 25 Space Program Funding: Politics, Practices, and Trends 35 Program Objectives and Strategies 49 Technological Capabilities: Niches and Strategies 70 Launch Vehicles .............................. 72 Communications Satellite Technologies ................. 84 Direct Broadcasting Satellites ...................... 92 Mobile Communications Technologies ...... ....... ..... 98 Remote Sensing Technologies ...................... 103 Subsystems and Component Technologies . ....... ....... 108 Niche Markets 113 Conclusions 118 List of Acronyms 127 Chronology of Events 129 List of Tables 4.1 U.S. Space Program Funding ......... ............ ... 38 4.2 Japanese Space Program Funding .... ............. ... 42 4.3 French Space Program Funding ..................... 45 5.1 French Space-related GIEs ........................ 67 5.2 French Companies Operating on CNES Capital ...... 68 6.1 Comparison of the H-I, Delta 3920, Atlas I, and Ariane 44LP . 79 6.2 Comparison of the H-II, Ariane 5, and Titan IV . ........ 81 6.3 Comparison of US, Japanese, and French Satellites ....... 88 Chapter 1 Introduction and Basic Argument In the early years of space exploration, few nations were willing or able to expend the resources necessary for large scale national space programs. Indeed, at that time only the United States and Soviet Union supported such programs, while develop- ing capabilities in areas ranging from interplanetary probes to manned spaceflight. Both countries subsequently rose to positions of unchallenged pre-eminence in space technologies and activities. In more recent years, however, the level of international interest and activity in the space arena has risen substantially. Various factors have contributed to this change, including the ongoing maturation of industries and markets for communications satel- lites and launch services, and the increased accessibility of developed, transferable space technologies. Furthermore, the potential benefits from space development and the advantages of assured access to space have become increasingly characterized in strategic terms, both for high technology growth and national security. As a result, various nations have begun to foster promising and successful space programs, with steadily increasing capabilities and ambitious goals. Two particularly notable examples of this trend are the French and Japanese space programs, which have progressed from their initial satellite launches in 1965 and 1970, respectively, to participation in the current international space station Freedom project. Such progress is impressive, particularly given the relatively small amount of governmental funding allotted to both programs. Moreover, in the interim the French government has emerged as the driving force in many of the activities and projects of the thirteen-nation European Space Agency (providing nearly 1/4 of the agency's funding), while the Japanese program has nearly completed the development of an indigenous, high capacity launch vehicle and has successfully developed capabilities in communications and direct broadcasting satellite technologies. Both programs have also recently placed a high priority on the eventual attainment of autonomy in space activities. From the perspective of Japan, with its heavy reliance on trade and high technology resources, the desire for some level of independent capability in a potential high technology growth area is understandable and perhaps even expected. Similarly, as part of established de Gaullian policies for French autonomy and security, France has long sought the capacity for independent development and planning in space- related areas such as weapons delivery systems and technologies for communications, broadcasting, and surveillance satellites. Despite the apparent agreement within both governments regarding the value of some level of national capability in space-related technologies, however, true political consensus has not yet been established in either country regarding the extent of autonomy or level of capability necessary for attaining national objectives. As in the U.S. and other countries, the overall commercial potential of the space marketplace remains uncertain. Moreover, the expenditures required for systems-level research and development in space technologies continue to rise, generating further uncertainty and increasing the inherent risks involved in space-related investments. As a result, the government funding for both programs has remained low and conservative relative to the funding for the much larger U.S. and Soviet programs. In view of these historical and current funding policies, the accomplishments of the French and Japanese space programs become all the more notable. Indeed, various aspects of the capabilities, strategies, and policies of the two programs