Climate Conflict: Players and Tactics in the Greenhouse Game A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY From UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG By PATRICK RICHARD HODDER Bachelor of Arts (Honours) University of Wollongong 2007 SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, MEDIA AND COMMUNICATION 2011 Certification I, Patrick Richard Hodder, declare that this thesis, submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy in the School of Social Sciences, Media and Communication, University of Wollongong, is wholly my own work, unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. The document has not been submitted for qualifications at any other academic institution. ………………………………………….. Patrick Richard Hodder 14 June 2011 i Publications in support of this thesis Hodder, PR, ‗Australian climate change politics under the Howard and Rudd governments‘, Revised and resubmitted. Hodder, PR, ‗Credibility games: climate change critics in the Australian quality press‘, submitted for review. Hodder, PR 2010, ‗Lobby groups and front groups: Industry tactics in the climate change debate‘, Melbourne Journal of Politics, vol. 34, pp. 45-81. Hodder, PR 2009, ‗The hidden dangers of an emissions trading scheme‘, Social Alternatives, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 49-53. Hodder, PR and Martin, B 2009, ‗Climate Crisis? The politics of emergency framing‘, Economic and Political Weekly, vol. 44, no. 36, pp. 53-60. Hodder, PR 2008, ‗Carbon pollution: Reduction scheme or soft option?‘, Australian Review of Public Affairs, available online, http://www.australianreview.net/digest/2008/09/hodder.html Text from the first four papers and ideas from all six are used in this thesis. ii Contents Certification ................................................................................................................ i Publications in support of this thesis ......................................................................... ii List of Tables ............................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ............................................................................................................... x Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. xii Abstract ....................................................................................................................... xv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................. xvi Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 Concepts of Power ................................................................................................. 4 Social construction and the sociology of science .................................................. 8 Contemporary approaches to climate change ...................................................... 13 The backfire model .............................................................................................. 17 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 26 Data sources ......................................................................................................... 26 Use of terms ......................................................................................................... 27 Limitations of the research ................................................................................... 28 Thesis structure ........................................................................................................ 31 Chapter 1: Climate systems and climate change .................................................... 33 Chapter 2: Policy Options ......................................................................................... 47 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 47 Policy context........................................................................................................... 47 Economic or Market Instruments......................................................................... 50 Emissions Trading Schemes ................................................................................ 52 Carbon Tax ........................................................................................................... 55 iii Conclusion on market instruments....................................................................... 56 Feed-in tariffs ....................................................................................................... 57 Renewable Energy Targets .................................................................................. 59 Subsidies and Rebates .......................................................................................... 60 Regulation ............................................................................................................ 61 ‗Clean coal‘ .......................................................................................................... 66 Nuclear power ...................................................................................................... 68 Renewable Energy Plan ....................................................................................... 70 Transport and Integrated Urban Planning ............................................................ 71 Forest policy......................................................................................................... 72 Agriculture Policy ................................................................................................ 74 Immigration Policy .............................................................................................. 75 Economic growth and a Green New Deal............................................................ 78 Conclusions on Policy options ............................................................................. 80 Chapter 3: Agendas and Interests ............................................................................ 83 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 83 The media and public agenda .............................................................................. 84 Agenda access and agenda building .................................................................... 86 Problem definition ............................................................................................... 87 Interest groups and direct access to government ................................................. 88 Agenda management ............................................................................................ 90 Chapter 4: Government ............................................................................................ 95 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 95 Political challenges .................................................................................................. 96 Obstacles to international agreement ................................................................... 98 iv Australia‘s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile ..................................................... 106 Australian historical and political context ............................................................. 108 Hawke and Keating Labor Governments ........................................................... 108 Voluntary programs ........................................................................................... 110 The Kyoto Protocol ............................................................................................ 112 Howard Federal Government ................................................................................. 113 The Energy White Paper: Securing Australia‘s Energy Future (2004) ............. 114 The Stern review ................................................................................................ 115 The Prime Ministerial Task Group on emissions trading: The Shergold Report117 The Garnaut Climate Change Review ............................................................... 119 The agenda management techniques of government ............................................. 125 The Howard Government ...................................................................................... 126 Cover-up and access to information .................................................................. 126 Devaluation ........................................................................................................ 126 Reinterpretation.................................................................................................. 127 Official channels ................................................................................................ 130 Pressure .............................................................................................................. 132 The Rudd Government ........................................................................................... 133 Validation ........................................................................................................... 133 Reinterpretation.................................................................................................