REAL ESTATE Swanepoel Trends Report, 16th Edition TRENDS OFFICIAL EXTRACT TREND 1: REAL ESTATE IN A POST-PANDEMIC ‘NEW NORMAL’ (PAGES 190-215) 2021 A Market Intelligence Report by T3 Sixty, LLC “Comprehensive research and strategic planning are indispensable for future real estate success. The Swanepoel Trends Report represents the gold standard for third party independent scholarship pertaining to this all-important process.” Gino Blefari, CEO, HSF Affiliates “The Swanepoel Trends Report is ‘the’ go-to book on what is happening within the industry, a great source of real information to help brokers and brands plan for what lies ahead. I have been a subscriber since inception. It gets better and better every year.” Sherry Chris, President & CEO, Realogy Expansion Brands “It’s the best consolidated market intel available and a great tool to use to ponder change, innovation and the industry.” Matthew Consalvo, CEO, Arizona Regional MLS “The Swanepoel Trends Report refines the way I view the industry It’s required reading for my entire board of directors.” Art Carter, CEO, CRMLS “The Swanepoel Trends Report is one of my ‘go to’ reference guides regarding future trends in the real estate vertical. Truly a phenom- enal resource and one that provides great insight and value.” Bob Goldberg, CEO, National Association of REALTORS® “Every month during our Executive Strategy Group Meeting, our executive team selects one trend from the Swanepoel Trends Report to talk through. We discuss this trend and identify a positive opportunity we want to pursue in response to the trend, keeping us ahead of the curve.” Lennox Scott, CEO, John L Scott 2021 Swanepoel Trends Report 16th Annual Edition Official Extract of Trend 1 Real Estate in a Post-Pandemic ‘New Normal’ T3 Sixty Enabling Intelligent Change Swanepoel Trends Report Gold medalist for best real estate book, Bruss Real Estate Book Awards Silver medalist for best business reference, AXIOM Business Book Awards Editorial Team Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means or stored in a Editor-in-Chief database or retrieval system without the prior written permission of the publisher. Images Stefan Swanepoel may be protected by copyright and should not be used without approval. Executive Editor Paul Hagey Most of the companies mentioned in this report own numerous trademarks and other marks. This report, the publishers, the author, the contributors or any other party in- Managing Editor volved in this Report in any way, will not seek to challenge or dilute any of these marks. Tinus Swanepoel Specifically, Realtor is a registered trademark of the National Association of Realtors. Technology Editor Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty Jack Miller Staff Writers While the publisher, authors, contributors and editors have used their best efforts to pres- Kenya Burrell-VanWormer, Michele Conn, ent neutral, accurate, and reasonable views of the industry and its participants, they make Dean Cottrill, Mark Lesswing, Jonathan no representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the Peterson, Travis Saxton, Clint Skutchan, contents of each publication and specifically disclaim any implied warranties. Kelly White, T3 Sixty serves many companies and organizations stated in this report as a management Guest Contributors Tendayi Kapfidze, Paul C. Bishop, Jon Coile consulting firm and may also, from time to time, be an investor in some of the companies mentioned in this report. However, no confidential information or information covered by a Design nondisclosure agreement was used. Tinus Swanepoel References to companies, products and services also do not constitute or imply endorse- Editorial Assistants ment, and neither is any reference or absence of reference intended to harm, advantage Karen Smith, Shannon Musgrove or disadvantage a company or person. The publishers, editorial team and T3 Sixty shall Published by T3 Sixty not be liable for any loss or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to 29122 Rancho Viejo Rd, Suite 102 special, incidental, consequential or other damages. San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675 949.627.8877 Images and photos not specifically identified are available under creative commons or were purchased through Shutterstock and may be protected by copyright. t360.com | t3trends.com ISBN 978-0-9914076-6-8 Price $199.95 USA Printed in the United States of America Copyright © 2020 by T3 Sixty All rights reserved. Previous Books and Reports As of January 2021 2020 Swanepoel Trends Report (2021) Real Estate Almanac (2020) The Impact of Automated Digital Listing Marketing 2019 Swanepoel Trends Report (2020) MLS 2022 Agenda Swanepoel Mega 1000 (2019) Swanepoel Power 200 (2019) Bringing Open Houses into the Digital Age 2018 Swanepoel Trends Report (2019) Important MLS Issues Answered Swanepoel Mega 1000 Swanepoel Trends Report (2018) Swanepoel Power 200 (2018) 2017 MLS 2020 Agenda Commercial Real Estate ALERT Finding New Clarity Winning on the Web Swanepoel Trends Report (2017) Swanepoel Power 200 (2017) 2016 Homeowner Insights Digitization of the Home Buying Process DANGER Report Canada Swanepoel Trends Report (2016) Swanepoel Power 200 (2016) 2015 T3 Risk Guide DANGER Report USA T3 Tech Guide Swanepoel Trends Report (2015) Swanepoel Power 200 (2015) 1997–2014 Swanepoel Trends Report (2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006) Swanepoel Power 200 (2014) Swanepoel Social Media Report (2010) Real Estate Confronts Agent Reviews (2014) Real Estate Confronts Goal Setting vs. Business Planning (2005) Real Estate Confronts Bundled Services (2005) Real Estate Confronts Customer Acquisition (2004) Real Estate Confronts the Future (2004) Real Estate Confronts Profitability (2003) Real Estate Confronts the Banks (2002) Real Estate Confronts the e-Consumer (2000) Real Estate Confronts Technology (1999) Real Estate Confronts Reality (1997) Table of Contents viii Foreword by Robert Reffkin x Preface by Stefan Swanepoel & Paul Hagey 12 Trend 09 The Housing Affordability Reality 30 Trend 08 Inside the Clear Cooperation Policy 54 Trend 07 The Brokerage Ancillary Business Playbook 76 Trend 06 The Real Estate Franchising Landscape 98 Trend 05 Real Estate’s Cloud-Based Brokerage Takes Flight 118 Trend 04 Revitalizing Real Estate’s Largest Franchisor and Brokerage Company 148 Trend 03 Managing Diversity and Inclusion 168 Trend 02 The Lead-Generation-Focused Business Opportunity Included in this Extract 190 Trend 01 Real Estate in a Post-Pandemic ‘New Normal’ Included in this Extract 216 About About T3 Sixty Real Estate in a 01 Post-Pandemic ‘New Normal’ The impact and future of the real estate industry transformed by COVID-19 There have been few impacts as large or as deep on the residential real estate brokerage industry than the ones brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although real estate proved very resilient it has been changed forever. This chapter dives into the changes and the industry’s future. 192 Trend 01: Real Estate in a Post-Pandemic ‘New Normal’ Introduction In mid-March 2020, the economy came crashing to a near halt when state governors across the US issued stay-at-home orders to stem the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus, which had just begun to impact America. The orders stalled the economy in many areas of the country as everyone grappled with what this meant for business and how it would impact our lives. Early predictions did not anticipate the severity of its impact. A few months into the pandemic, the inherent uncertainty and the often confusing local rules around travel and business closings and reopenings that created many practical challenges for businesses to remain profitable. In real estate, open houses, property tours and sales came to a sudden halt and concerns of another housing crash emerged. All-time low mortgage rates, feverish consumer demand, a relatively healthy financial performance for consumers at higher income levels and quick adaptation by brokers and agents in addressing the restric- tions dispelled these concerns as a blazing third quarter created one of the hottest real estate markets ever. This chapter chronicles the impact COVID-19 had on the real estate industry, some of the changes brokerages implemented to adapt to this new environment, what the impact could be after the pandemic, and begins to tease out what operations, technology and processes real estate companies implemented in response to the pandemic may remain once it passes. COVID-19 General Economic Impact COVID-19 greatly impacted many parts of the economy as gov- ernments shut down or severely restricted social gatherings. In September, the US Federal Reserve predicts that US real gross do- mestic product (GDP; real GDP accounts for inflation) is expected to drop 3.7 percent from 2019. It would be the first year-over-year drop in Real GDP since 2009. Swanepoel Trends Report 2021 © T3 Sixty 193 Change in US GDP, 2015-2022 Real GDP Year-over-Year Year (in Trillions) Change 2015 $18.24 4.1% 2016 $18.75 2.8% "US unemployment 2017 $19.54 4.3% skyrocketed in re- sponse to the pan- 2018 $20.61 5.5% demic, jumping to 14.7 2019 $21.43 4.0% percent in mid-2020, 2020 (projected)* $20.64 -3.7% the highest rate in 2021 (projected)* $21.47 4.0% decades." 2022 (projected)* $22.11 3.0% * Projected data provided by US Federal Reserve. Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; US Federal Reserve Unemployment US unemployment skyrocketed in response to the pandemic, jumping to 14.7 percent in mid-2020, the highest rate in decades, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It had dropped down to 7.9 percent by September 2020; this rate still represented a high since early 2013. Civilian Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted 17.% 1.0% 1.% 10.0% 7.% .0% .% 000 00 004 006 00 010 01 014 016 01 00 Source: U.S.