MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 24 Issue 4 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my 1 – 30 April 2019 HIGHLIGHTS it downgraded forecasts for coming Although stocks weakened in the FOCUS years. Despite that, the government second half of April, the big gains was able to promise a return to since the start of the year kept the budget surplus in 2019/20 starting three-month weighted average • World economy facing delicate July 1, the first since 2007/08 before positive. Copper prices, sales moment, IMF says the global financial crisis hit. The managers and smaller enterprises • U.S. negotiators land in Beijing as improving budget position enabled reported weaker readings. (29 April, the government to announce tax cuts Bloomberg) data show fragile economy and increased health, education and • Malaysia-Nordic trade positive, infrastructure spending ahead of a South Korea’s GDP contraction says Finnish ambassador sparks currency slide: Thursday’s national election due to be called for unexpected contraction in the South • Malaysia signs ASEAN Trade in mid-May. (2 April, Reuters) Korean economy was met by a range Services Agreement of reactions in financial markets, • A first for Sabah in aerospace Singapore’s Finance Minister sees from a flurry of activity in swaps to a solid Southeast Asia growth despite training risks: Singapore and other Southeast mild indifference in equities. The • Looking to Jiangxi for industrial Asian economies are poised to interest-rate swap curve shifted lower boost after data showed gross domestic remain resilient in the face of product shrank 0.3 percent in the first INTERNATIONAL increasingly dour signs on the global quarter from the previous three economy, said Finance Minister months, versus expectations of an 0.3 ANTARABANGSA Heng Swee Keat. Economies in the percent gain. The currency extended 10-member Association of Southeast its decline into a fourth day as the World economy facing delicate Asian Nations “and Asean as a group figures confirmed U.S.-China trade moment, IMF says: The global both continue to grow quite well even tensions and a technology downturn economy is at what the International this year and next,” Heng told are taking a toll on Korea’s export- Monetary Fund’s chief economist Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda driven economy. (25 April, calls a “delicate moment”. Gita Amin on the sidelines of meetings of Bloomberg) Gopinath says that while she does not the regional bloc in Chiang Rai, predict a global recession, “there are Thailand. “There will still be growth French first-quarter consumer many downside risks”. The IMF has even though the growth will be recovery helps keep economy released its regular assessment of the uneven across the world and it’ll be cruising: The French economy World Economic Outlook, which slower than before.” (8 April, maintained a steady pace of growth forecasts global growth of 3.3% this Bloomberg) in the first three months of the year as household spending recovered after year and 3.6% in 2020. That would Japan’s exports fall again amid U.S. be slower growth than last year – and pressure in trade talks: Japan’s anti-government protests at the end of for 2019, a downgrade compared exports shrank for a fourth straight 2018, official data showed on with the previous forecast. (9 April, month in March as weakness in Tuesday. The euro zone’s second- BBC News) global demand continues to weigh on biggest economy grew 0.3 percent in the economy. One of the bright spots the January-March period, the third U.S. negotiators land in Beijing as in recent data – increasing shipments quarter in a row at that rate, the data show fragile economy: U.S. trade to the U.S. – could darken if trade INSEE statistics agency said. The negotiators landed in Beijing talks with the Trump administration preliminary GDP reading was in line Tuesday, seeking “substantial” that began this week turn sour. The with the average expectation in a progress in talks aimed at ending the value of exports to the U.S. rose for a Reuters poll of 27 economists and tariff war, as weak economic data sixth month, by 4.4 percent, was just a tad less than the 0.4 underscored the stakes for the global generating a bilateral surplus of 683.6 percent recorded in the broader euro economy. Earlier, China’s first zone. (30 April, Reuters) billion yen ($6.1 billion) in March, official gauge of the manufacturing according to the finance ministry in German business morale dips as sector in April fell, signaling that Tokyo. Sales to China slumped, economy loses steam: German more work is needed to bed down the driving a 2.4 percent drop in total business morale deteriorated in April, economic stabilization seen in the exports. (17 April, Bloomberg) a survey showed on Wednesday, first quarter. Industrial production bucking expectations for a small rise also tumbled in South Korea China’s recovery still relies on and suggesting Europe’s largest and Japan, and gross domestic stimulus as outlook upgraded: economy is losing momentum as product growth slowed a notch China’s economic recovery continued trade tensions hamper its exporters. in Taiwan. (30 April, Bloomberg) this month, underpinned by The Munich-based Ifo economic expansive fiscal policy as investors institute said its business climate Australia economy seen stretching await a potential resolution of the index fell to 99.2 from an upwardly record run as budget back in trade war with the U.S. That’s revised 99.7 in the previous month. black: Australia is expected to according to a Bloomberg Economics The April reading compared with a extend its enviable recession-free run gauge aggregating the earliest consensus forecast for 99.9. (24 of growth into a third decade, the available indicators on market April, Reuters) government said on Tuesday even as sentiment and business conditions. 1 – 30 April 2019 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 Malaysia, Nailofer Al Bastaki. (29 2009. Economists too have upgraded NATIONAL April, The Star) their forecast to a median of NASIONAL US$68.25 a barrel from US$67 in PM’s visit to China puts bilateral just about less than a month, Malaysia-Nordic trade positive, relations into perspective – CABA: according to Bloomberg’s survey. (15 says Finnish ambassador: Nordic Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir April, Business Times) Mohamad’s second visit to China has countries account for a combined Indonesia and Malaysia unite to trade of 750 million Euros (about put the Malaysia-China bilateral relations into a broader perspective fight EU’s ban on palm oil: RM3.495 billion) in exports with Malaysia and Indonesia stand united for the future, said the China-ASEAN Malaysia. On the other hand, the in fighting the discriminatory Business Association (CABA). Its region has imports worth 950 million delegated regulation supplementing president, Tan Sri Lim Gait Tong, Euros (about RM4.427 billion) from Directive 2018/2001 of the European said the fact that Dr. Mahathir was Malaysia. The Nordic region Union Renewable Energy Directive accorded the greatest respect during comprises Finland, Sweden, Norway, II. In a recent statement, Primary his meeting with Chinese President Denmark and Iceland. Speaking on Industries Ministry said the Council Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang their behalf, Finland’s ambassador to of Palm Oil Producing Countries was a testimony to the bond that has Malaysia Petri Puhakka said in (CPOPC) was now in Brussels to been reestablished for the future proportion to the size of the Nordic register the two major global palm oil conduct of government-to- region’s population of 27 million, producers’ protests to the members of government and business-to-business trade with Malaysia (with a the European Parliament. The relations between both countries. population of 32 million) was on a Malaysian delegation is led by “Though the Prime Minister’s visit is “fairly notable level”. (17 April, Primary Industries Ministry primarily to participate in the Belt Business Times) secretary-general Datuk Dr. Tan Yew and Road Forum on the President of Chong. (7 April, Business Times) Malaysia signs ASEAN Trade in China’s invitation, Tun Dr. Mahathir Services Agreement: Malaysia has is taking the opportunity to make his Malaysia’s reserves at US$103 bln signed the ASEAN Trade in Services presence and influence felt on a at end-March 2019 – BNM: Agreement (ATISA) and the Fourth wider front, including business Malaysia’s reserves remained usable Protocol to Amend the ASEAN relations events and engagements. as at end-March 2019, with official Comprehensive Investment (26 April, Bernama) reserve assets at US$103.01 billion, in accordance with the International Agreement (ACIA). “Both Export growth may moderate to Monetary Fund’s Special Data Agreements would strengthen and 3.6 pct: Malaysia’s exports growth Dissemination Standard (IMF SDDS) enhance trade in services and is expected to moderate further at 3.6 format. In a statement today, Bank investment respectively among per cent this year from 6.7 per cent in Negara Malaysia (BNM) said other member states of ASEAN,” Minister 2018, analysts said. This is amid foreign currency assets amounted to of International Trade and Industry higher base effects and continuous US$147.3 million. “For the next 12 Datuk Darell Leiking, who signed the signs of easing key global indicators, months, the pre-determined short- agreement, said in a statement they added. The moderating pace was term outflows of foreign currency released here in Kuala Lumpur today. consistent with global commodity loans, securities and deposits, which He said this would further stimulate prices, expectation of a slight include among others, scheduled greater opportunities for economic slowdown in overall business repayment of external borrowings by and business development, by performance on top of the uncertainty the government and repayment creating a larger market and over China-US trade conflict, MIDF arising from maturity of the foreign predictability of the business Research said when commenting on currency Bank Negara Interbank environment in the region, in line the country’s latest trade date today.