Danish Consumers – Traveling from Corona to the Future Trends and scenarios for the future of the tourism sector ANTOR Denmark April 2020 Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies GLOBAL INDEPENDENT ADVISORY Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Bugge Holm Hansen Sofie Hvitved Associated Partner & Special Associated Partner & Special Advisor in T ravel, Sport, Advisor in Media & Technology Innovation and D igitalization Copenhagen Institute for Copenhagen Institute for Futures Futures Studies (CIFS) Studies (CIFS) April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Global Independent Advisors since 1969. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is a non-profit, independent institute founded in 1969 by former OECD Secretary-General Thorkil Kristensen for the betterment of our society. Our main goal is to navigate in complexity and advise decision-makers about the future, enabling them to make the best possible decisions in the present. April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning SELECTED PARTNERS April 2020 Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning TODAY’S AGENDA • Future studies & megatrends • The future consumer • 4 scenarios • Where do we go from here? • Q&A PageApril 5 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Key futures principles… • There are multiple futures. • The future is not pre-determined – we have alternatives. • The future is not predictable – we have choices. • The future can be influenced – there are consequences of our choices and action today for future generations. April 2020 Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Futures tunnel… WILD CARDS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS PLAUSIBLE PROBABLE Today PREFERABLE Time April 2020 Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Future of Tourism Technological Development Demographic Development The application of knowledge or science to commerce or Measurable changes in demography covering industrial processes. Both the innovation and diffusion of distribution and size in human population – including: technologies. urbanization, ageing, ethnicity & religion and family composition. Economic Growth Knowledge Society Overall increase in productivity and Increasingly educated populations and growing subsequent growth of wealth at a economic value of knowledge where skills, global scale. information, and data constitute primary economic assets. Globalization Acceleration & Complexity The process of interaction and integration among the people, culture, companies, Shortening business lifespan, innovation, and and governments of nations across the product life-cycles with greater industry GLOBAL MEGATRENDS globe. convergence. Polarisation Megatrends are major pathways of development, global in scope, and have a Sustainability Growing gap between extremes, such as top lifetime of at least 10-15 years. Meeting the needs of the present without and bottom market segments, at the expense compromising the ability of future of the middle and lower segment. While megatrends are expected trajectories, generations to meet their own needs. do not expect the development to occur Individualisation linearly. Focus on Health Increasing desire for personalized products Global movement towards improving and services that directly conform to the the health and well-being, needs and interests of any particular user. transcending all aspects of public, private, and professional lives. Immaterialisation Commercialization Changes in our perceptions and our Areas in society and the public sector that values that includes a greater focus on become assigned to commercial business. value over volume. Network Society Democratization A process of transformation in which equality, A society and operating environment where access, and transparency are improved by networks are shaping social interactions and accountability, decentralization, April 2020 organisational structures. empowerment and openness. Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Future of Tourism Up until now… April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning A more seamless me A better me / world / world (convenience) (transformation) THE LIQUID IDENTITY April 2020 Source: ”Understanding the Future Consumer”, CIFS 2018 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The Experience Economy the shift from commodities to transformations. TRANSFORMATIONS Customization Coach Commoditization EXPERIENCES Customization Stage Commoditization SERVICES Customization Deliver Commoditization GOODS Customization Make Commoditization COMMODITIES Extract April 2020 Source: Pine & Gilmore, 2015 Future of Tourism Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning We live in a culture of liquid expectations where each new and amazing experience becomes the standard to which all others are compared. If I can pay seamlessly when I take an Uber why can’t I do the same when I plan my next travel?! Why can I buy sustainable food but cannot travel in a sustainable way?! Source: FJORD, 2018 April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Scenarios for the future of tourism in 2020/2021 - after COVID-19 April 2020 Future of Tourism How big is the impact of COVID-19? April 2020 Source: boardofinnovation.com Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Using scenarios as a tool Scenarios can be used as a tool to: • Reduce complexity • Structure thinking about the future with storytelling • Initiate dialogue • Working with the most critical uncertainties for the organization • Not predictions of the future (Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies) Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Consumers Cocooning – Fear and Travel 2021 is 2019 – Fun and Travel Control, security and safety comes first Return to normal No taste for adventure Trust that companies take precautions if needed Cocooning and small and big luxuries at home No need to emphasize safety New ways of creating experiences Technology will solve any outstanding problems Diversity is not good Consumption levels back to normal if No trust in destinations and events people are employed with many people I don’t want to miss out (FOMO) Savings rate up. Consumption rate down April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Globalisation Open world Separated worlds Shared responsibility for getting the world The world is divided into go and no-go zones back on track Restricted access, closed borders, visa Normal problems reemerge: US versus China, restrictions Hungary vs Brussels Go zones scattered across Europe Technological solutions to control outbreaks GDP continues to drop Common sense solutions Massive unemployment GDP rebounds Economic fallout is limited April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF TOURISM Cocooning – Fear and Travel Scenario B Scenario A “From “The well-known Copenhagen to Separated worlds and trusted” Tisvildeleje ” Open World Scenario C Scenario D “Connecting the “Back in the European saddle” dots/oases” 2021 is 2019 – Fun and Travel April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning THE WELL KNOWN AND TRUSTED • The world is almost back to normal, but tourists stay at home • Mental models around travelling has change and the Scenario A willingness to explore is diminished • Tourist destinations: Cocooning – Fear and Travel // Open world • Should be well known • High degree of trust • Cultural connect to Denmark • Safety measures are more important - ratings, insurances, safeguards for all aspects of the trip A B • Markets close to Denmark prospers. Peru is not on the Danes mental map • Shorter trips – weekends etc. D C • The (perceived) quality of public services is important at the destination • The regions which took the worst hits with Corona are stigmatized (Lombardia etc) April 2020 Future of Tourism Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning FROM COPENHAGEN TO TISVILDELEJE • The world is divided into zones. Borders are not only mental but also physical Scenario B • Savings rates increase and taxes sky rocket • Open borders are difficult to cross. A border is a check Cocooning – Fear and Travel // point and tourist do not feel safe and secure crossing borders Separated worlds • Limitations on amount of tourists allowed into destinations and sights • Tourists main concern continues to be how to uphold social distancing A B • Cocooning in homes, huts, summerhouses and the odd cabin in Sweden • Local tourist destinations make limitations on tourists: You are only allowed to visit if you win the weekly lottery (500 per D C day are allowed into Tisvildeleje) • Alternatives to traditional tourism flourishes – technological and analog • Gardens are the new black • Individual solutions: No public transport – only private cars or bikes • Trust: National and local