EXPLAINING FEELINGS OF SAFETY IN HONDURAS: DEMOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITIES, PERCEPTIONS OF LOCAL ORDER, AND ORGANIZATIONAL PARTICIPATION A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Notre Dame in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts by Leslie MacColman Erin McDonnell, Director Graduate Program in Sociology Notre Dame, Indiana June 2016 © Copyright 2016 Leslie MacColman EXPLAINING FEELINGS OF SAFETY IN HONDURAS: DEMOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITIES, PERCEPTIONS OF LOCAL ORDER, AND ORGANIZATIONAL PARTICIPATION Abstract by Leslie MacColman Honduras has exceptionally high rates of crime and violence, a great deal of which occurs in low-income, urban neighborhoods. Despite this, little scholarly attention has been given to how safe (or unsafe) the residents of such neighborhoods feel and how their levels of fear vary based on demographic attributes, perceptions of disorder, social relationships, and participation in local organizations. In this thesis, I leverage survey data collected in eleven low-income neighborhoods from across Honduras. Using a series of multinomial logistic models, I show that perceptions of social disorder and community cohesion and prior victimization are strong predictors of fear and that these variables provide greater explanatory power than the demographic attributes commonly referred to in studies from the United States and other developed countries. I then turn to the issue of collective efficacy, showing that individuals with higher levels of participation in community organizations are less likely to express feelings of fear, with this effect being the strongest for state-oriented - rather than civic or religious - organizations. This research serves to extend and deepen scholarly understanding of fear of crime in the unique context of Central America. To the baby I carry, who will soon come into the world. May you grow up safely and multiply the love with which you are received. ii CONTENTS TABLES .......................................................................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................................................................................................. vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: EXPLAINING FEAR OF CRIME ........................................................................... 5 2.1 Understanding Fear of Crime ................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Social and Demographic Vulnerabilities ............................................................................... 7 2.3 Perceptions of Neighborhood Disorder ................................................................................. 9 2.4 Personal Efficacy as Organizational Participation .............................................................. 13 2.5 Relationship with Public Authorities ................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 3: CASE BACKGROUND ON HONDURAS ........................................................... 20 3.1 Patterns of Victimization ..................................................................................................... 20 3.2 Individual-Level Responses ................................................................................................ 23 CHAPTER 4: DATA AND METHODS ....................................................................................... 27 4.1 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 27 4.2 Dependent Variable ............................................................................................................. 28 4.3 Independent Variables ......................................................................................................... 28 4.4 Analytic Methods ................................................................................................................ 32 CHAPTER 5: RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 34 5.1 Model Results ................................................................................................................. 34 iii CHAPTER 6: DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................... 46 6.1 Discussion....................................................................................................................... 46 BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................................................................................................... 59 iv TABLES TABLE 1: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF MAIN VARIABLES ............................................ 31 TABLE 2: CORRELATIONS ....................................................................................................... 33 TABLE 3: MLOGIT RESULTS OF MODELS 1 AND 2 ............................................................. 38 TABLE 4: MLOGIT RESULTS OF MODELS 1 AND 2 ............................................................. 39 TABLE 5: MLOGIT RESULTS OF MODELS 1 AND 2 ............................................................. 40 TABLE 6: MLOGIT RESULTS OF MODELS 3 AND 4 ............................................................. 43 TABLE 7: MLOGIT RESULTS OF MODELS 3 AND 4 ............................................................. 44 TABLE 8: MLOGIT RESULTS OF MODELS 3 AND 4 ............................................................. 45 TABLE A.1: FINDINGS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF FEAR OF CRIME .......................... 51 v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First, I wish to thank my advisor, Dr. Erin McDonnell. I appreciate her willingness to take a gamble on a student who – at the time - she barely knew and her confidence in my ability to complete this project. Under her tutelage, I found the right balance of patience and distance, encouragement, and urgent intervention in moments of technical or intellectual crisis. The steep learning curve has been well worth it, as it has moved me incrementally closer to the scholarly excellence that Erin exhibits and encourages in all of her students. The same gratitude extends to the other members of my committee, Dr. Kraig Beyerlein, whose charitable words gave me an emotional recharge at more than one critical juncture, and Dr. Ann Mische, whose unique mix of intellectual acuity, genuine humility, and overwhelming kindness continues to inspire me. Second, I want to express deep thanks to my counterparts at the Fondo Hondureño de Inversión Social (FHIS). Without their interest and willingness to share data, this work would have been impossible. In particular, I wish to thank Lic. Zunilda Martell for her leadership and support of my work. I am also deeply indebted to Oscar Matute Mandujano, whose professional competence, curiosity, and excellent sense of humor make him a pleasure to work with. It is my greatest hope that this thesis – and the related research projects that have emerged since – will, in some small way, strengthen the work done by FHIS and its partner organizations. Yet, I have no illusions; it is not academia that will transform the Honduran reality but the knowledge, vision, and perduring efforts of committed citizens on either side of the state / non-state divide. Indeed, it is the community leaders, whose identities are obscured behind statistics in the present account, who should be acknowledged as the most vital agents of change. Lastly, I wish to thank Demián Gómez, my partner, my best friend, and the father of my child. Demián, nunca sabrás cuánto te quiero. I could never have come this far without you. vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction The impact of violence on everyday life in Honduras can hardly be overstated. In 2012, Honduras reported a staggering homicide rate of 90.4 per 100,000 (UNODC 2013). A salient exemplar of the Central American ‘insecurity crisis,’ this murder rate was nearly four times the regional average (24 per 100,000) in the same year. Contextualized at the global scale, Honduras’ 2012 homicide rate was approximately 14 times greater than the worldwide average (6.2 per 100,000) and nearly 20 times larger than that of the United States of America (4.7 per 100,000) (ibid). Rapid and sustained growth in homicides rates over the past decade has earned Honduras the ignominious title of “most violent place on the planet” (Rivera, 2013). Yet, national averages belie great variability along geographic and socio-economic lines. In 2013, for example, 65% of homicides occurred in just 5% of urban municipalities (IUDPAS, 2014), such that acute violence is concentrated. While murder rates are an imperfect proxy for other types of violent and non- violent crime, available data indicate that they are often coupled (Serrano-Berthet & Lopez, 2011). This coupling points to the concentration of criminal activity in locales with particular social and economic characteristics; the dynamics surrounding this phenomenon are, as yet, poorly understood by researchers. In an attempt to explain the myriad factors contributing to the current insecurity crisis (and ultimately inform interventions to ameliorate it), a small but growing amount