CORVINUS UNIVERSITY OF BUDAPEST INTERSTATE RIVALS’ INTERVENTION IN THIRD PARTY CIVIL WARS: The comparative case of Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen (2004-2018) DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Supervisor: Marton Péter, Phd Associate Professor Palik Júlia Budapest, 2020 Palik Júlia Interstate rivals’ intervention in third-party civil wars: The comparative case of Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen (2004-2018) Institute of International Studies Supervisor: Marton Péter,Phd Associate Professor © Palik Júlia Corvinus University of Budapest International Relations Multidisciplinary Doctoral School Interstate rivals’ intervention in third-party civil wars: The comparative case of Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen (2004-2018) Doctoral Dissertation Palik Júlia Budapest, 2020 Table of Content List of Tables, Figures, and Maps....................................................................................................................................... 9 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 1. RESEARCH DESIGN ................................................................................................................................................. 12 1.2. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 1.2.1. Case study approach and case selection ............................................................................................... 17 1.3. Process tracing ........................................................................................................................................................ 18 1.4. Data sources ............................................................................................................................................................. 20 1.5. Ethical considerations ........................................................................................................................................... 23 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.1. Excursus: Systemic level theories .......................................................................................................................... 29 2.2. Interstate rivalry...................................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2.1. Definitions and measurements ................................................................................................................. 31 2.2.2. Interstate rivalry and intrastate conflict ................................................................................................ 33 2.3. Third party intervention in civil wars .............................................................................................................. 33 2.3.1. Trends in and impact of intervention in civil wars ........................................................................... 34 2.3.2. Rebel governance ......................................................................................................................................... 36 2.3.3. Defining intervention .................................................................................................................................. 37 2.3.4. Who intervenes, who receives, and what type of support .............................................................. 39 2.3.5. Intervention by interstate rivals ............................................................................................................... 41 2.4. Conflict management: diplomatic intervention in civil wars .................................................................. 43 2.5. Summary of literature review ............................................................................................................................ 44 3. THEORETICAL AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK .......................................................................... 45 3.1. EXTERNAL DIMENSIONS OF CIVIL WARS: The mechanism of conflict integration by rivals ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 3.1.1. Decision to intervene .......................................................................................................................................... 47 3.1.2. Decisions to continue support provision ...................................................................................................... 48 3.2. Internal dimension of rivalry intervention: The mechanism of rivalry instrumentalization ......... 49 3.3. Linking the internal and external levels: Networked interdependencies ............................................ 51 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................. 53 4.1. External dimension of domestic conflicts: Overview of Saudi-Iranian relations (1979-2018) ......... 53 4.1.1. Making sense of the rivalry .............................................................................................................................. 55 4.2. Structural variables: Geography, relative material capabilities, religion and state formation ........... 56 6 4.2.1. Geography .............................................................................................................................................................. 56 4.2.2. Relative Material Capabilities ......................................................................................................................... 58 4.2.3. Religion and state formation ............................................................................................................................ 64 4.3. Contextual variables: leadership changes, regional conflicts, relations to the US ....................... 69 4.3.1. Leadership changes ............................................................................................................................................. 70 4.3.2. Regional conflicts ................................................................................................................................................ 75 4.3.4. Perception of and relations to the United States ....................................................................................... 80 4.4. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................................... 83 5. THE CASE STUDY OF INTERVENTION IN YEMEN ............................................................................ 84 5.1. Opportunity for intervention: Yemen in context .................................................................................. 86 5.1.1. Availability of financing rebellion: ........................................................................................................ 88 5.1.2. Atypically low cost of rebellion .............................................................................................................. 89 5.1.3. Low costs of conflict specific capital .................................................................................................... 90 5.1.4. Atypically weak government military capabilities ........................................................................... 91 5.1.5. Besides the greed model ............................................................................................................................ 92 5.2. Actor Mapping ...................................................................................................................................................... 93 5.2.1. Houthi movement ......................................................................................................................................... 93 5.2.2. Government of Yemen (GoY) ................................................................................................................. 97 5.3. Rivals vis-a-vis domestic actors: Historical backgrounder............................................................... 98 5.3.1. Saudi-Yemeni relations .............................................................................................................................. 99 5.3.2. Iran-Yemen relations................................................................................................................................ 100 6. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS: STRUCTURED-FOCUSED COMPARISON ...................................... 101 6.1. Saada Wars: 2004 - 2010.................................................................................................................................. 102 6.2. Inter-war period: Yemen’s Arab Uprising.................................................................................................. 106 6.3. Internationalized civil war (2015-2018) .....................................................................................................