MAY 2016 PALMERSTON NORTH WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P. 09 3609670 PALMERSTON NORTH HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY REPORT May 2016 Home loan affordability is a measure of the proportion of take-home pay that is needed to make the mortgage payments for a typical household. If that is no more than 40%, then a mortgage is considered ‘affordable’. The following are typical assessments for households at three stages of home ownership. FIRST HOME BUYERS 25-29 Second Rung - YOUNG FAMILY 30-34 Second Rung - OLDER FAMILY 35-39 First home buyers earn the me- Young family buyers earn medi- Older family buyers earn dian income for their age group, an incomes in their age bracket, median incomes in their age and buy a lower quartile priced and buy a median priced home bracket, and buy a median home in their area. Both parties in their area. One partner works priced home in their area. Both work full-time. half-time. partners work full-time. Mortgage payments as a Mortgage payments as a Mortgage payments as a percentage of take home pay percentage of take home pay percentage of take home pay Take Home May 16 13.5% Take Home Take Home Pay Pay May 16 20.5% Pay May 16 13.1% May 15 15.5% $1,588.18 $1,312.43 May 15 22.6% $1,737.84 May 15 13.1% per Week May 14 16% per Week per Week May 14 27.4% May 14 15.5% May 11 17.5% May 11 25.3% This report estimates how affordable it would be for a couple This report estimates how affordable it would be for a couple This report estimates how affordable it would be for a couple where both are aged 25–29 and are working full time, to buy a with a young family to move up the property ladder and buy their who are both aged 35-39 and working full time, to move up the home at the lower quartile price in Palmerston North. next home at the current median price. property ladder and buy their next home at the current median It assumes they earn the median rate of pay for people of their It is assumed that one partner works full time and one works half price. age in their region, which would give them a take home pay of time and both are paid at the median rate for people of their It is assumed that both are paid at the median rate for people of $1,588.18 a week. age in Palmerston North, and that they receive the Working for their age in Palmerston North, and that they no longer receive the It is assumed they would have saved $46,700 to use as a deposit, Families allowance. Working for Families allowance. by putting aside 20% of their net pay each week for up to four That would give them total after tax weekly income of $1,312.43 That would give them total after tax weekly income of $1,737.84 years, earning interest on the savings at the 90 day bank deposit a week. a week. rate, or 20% of the house price, whichever is lower. It is also assumed they purchased their current home five years It is also assumed they purchased their current home 10 years To buy a home at Palmerston North’s lower quartile price they ago for $215,000, which was the lower quartile selling price in ago for $188,000, which was the lower quartile selling price in would need a mortgage of $186,800. Palmerston North at the time. Palmerston North at the time. They would need to set aside $214.41 a week to cover the If they sold that home for the current lower quartile price in If they sold that home for the current lower quartile price in mortgage payments, which would be 13.5% of their take home Palmerston North of $233,500, they would have equity of Palmerston North of $233,500, they would have equity of pay. $67,604 to use as a deposit on a new home. $104,481 to use as a deposit on a new home. Mortgage payments are considered affordable when they take up If they purchased a home at Palmerston North’s current median If they purchased a home at Palmerston North’s current median no more than 40% of take home pay. price of $302,500 they would need a $234,897 mortgage. price of $302,500 they would need a $198,019 mortgage. On that basis it would be affordable for a young couple earning The repayments on this would be would be $269.61 a week which The repayments on this would be would be $227.28 a week which the median pay rate to buy a lower quartile-priced home in would be 20.5% of their weekly income. would be 13.1% of their weekly income. Palmerston North. Mortgage payments are considered affordable when they take up Mortgage payments are considered affordable when they take up no more than 40% of take home pay. no more than 40% of take home pay. 2 WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P. 09 3609670 PALMERSTON NORTH KEY DRIVERS OF HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY May 2016 HOUSE PRICES INTEREST RATES AND MORTGAGE PAYMENTS The median dwelling price was $302,500 in May 2016, up from The average bank interest rate for two year Average 2 Year $302,300 in April. In May 2015 it was $281,000, which puts annual fixed rate mortgages was 4.348% for May, Fixed rate -126 basis points less than the 5.607% 12 growth at 7.7%. Five years ago the median was $274,000. months earlier. This Month 4.348% They were 140 homes sold in May, up from 132 in April. That The RBNZ has started a rate cut program A Month Ago 4.452% compares with 109 sales in May last year and 142 sales five years with the first reduction occurring in June ago. 2015 and the latest one in December 2015. No more cuts are expected although turmoil in Mortgage The lower-quartile house price was $233,500 in May 2016, down markets recently may change that expecta- Payment (Weekly) from $242,875 in April. Annual growth was 3.1%, from the $226,500 tion. Wholesale rates have been volatile re- lower-quartile house price in May 2015. cently and that has kept downward pressure First Home Buyers $214.41 on fixed mortgage rates. Second Rung- Young $269.61 Lower Quartile Median House Our model assumes borrowers switched to a families House Price Price 2 year fixed rate in June 2014, following the Second Rung- Older $227.28 shift reflected in RBNZ data. buyer Palmerston North May 16 $233,500 $302,500 April 16 $242,875 $302,300 INCOMES (WEEKLY TAKE HOME PAY) May 15 $226,500 $281,000 First Home Buyers Young Families Older Families May 14 $217,500 $299,000 First home buyers are aged Second Rung- Young Second rung- Older family 25-29. A household is a male families are aged 30-34. buyers are aged 35-39. A May 11 $215,000 $274,000 and a female both earning A household is a male, a household is a male, a female, First Quartile House Price Growth Median House Price Growth median incomes. There is no female and a child aged five. and school aged children. All NZ child in this household. Take One partner works part- Both parents work full time. home pay is gross pay less time. Take home pay is gross Take home pay is gross in- income tax. pay less income tax. come less income tax. May 16 $325,000 $506,000 The change in take home pay is as The change in take home pay is The change in take home pay is as follows: as follows: follows: April 16 $319,000 $490,000 May 15 $305,000 $460,000 Weekly Change Weekly Change Weekly Change May 11 $248,750 $350,000 May 16 $1,588.18 2.76% May 16 $1,312.43 2.72% May 16 $1,737.84 2.79% May 15 $1,545.48 2.78% May 15 $1,277.65 2.78% May 15 $1,690.69 3.35% May 14 $1,503.65 5.84% May 14 $1,243.11 6.57% May 14 $1,635.96 8.21% May 11 $1,420.63 May 11 $1,166.46 May 11 $1,511.87 3 WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P. 09 3609670 SEPERATE HOME LOAN AFFORDABILITY REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE TO EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS National New Zealand Auckland Region Auckland Central North Shore Auckland South Auckland West Papakura Rodney Pukekohe Wellington Region Wellington City Hutt Valley Porirua Katpiti Coast Wairarapa Northland Whangarei Waikato and Bay of Plenty Hamilton Tauranga Rotorua Hawkes Bay and Gisborne Napier Hastings Gisborne Taranaki, Manawhatu and Whanganui New Plymouth Palmerston North Whanganui Nelson and Marlbourough Nelson Cantebury Christchurch Timaru Otago, Central Otago Lakes and Southland Queenstown Dunedin Invercargill 4 WWW.INTEREST.CO.NZ / [email protected] / P. 09 3609670 Notes This work must be referred to as The interest.co.nz Home Mortgage payments: Disclaimer Loan Affordability series. Mortgage repayments are based on the value of the home loan, IMPORTANT – PLEASE READ paid weekly for 30 years, using the average bank interest rate. No reader should rely on the contents of this Report for making From May 2016 it refers solely to households.