SCANNING THE CONSERVATION HORIZON A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment DRAFT May 2010 Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Edited by Patty Glick and Bruce A. Stein Draft May 2010 Copyright ©National Wildlife Federation 2010 Citation: P. Glick and B.A. Stein, editors. 2010. Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment . Draft. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C. Disclaimer: This draft document represents the work and views of the editors and authors and does not necessarily imply endorsement by the agencies or organizations who provided financial support for this work, or with whom the authors are affiliated. Cover: Snow geese at Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge. Coastal marshes such as these will be vulnerable to inundation from climate change-induced sea-level rise. Photo courtesy U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. National Wildlife Federation 901 E Street, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 202.797.6000; www.nwf.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 3 PREFACE....................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 9 Our Rapidly Changing World .................................................................................................................... 9 Climate Change Adaptation – Putting “Vulnerability Assessment” in Context ...................................... 10 Why Assess Vulnerability? ...................................................................................................................... 13 2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT BASICS ......................................................................................... 19 Components of Vulnerability ................................................................................................................... 20 Components of Biodiversity .................................................................................................................... 23 Setting Goals and Engaging Stakeholders ............................................................................................... 27 Selecting Assessment Targets .................................................................................................................. 33 Space and Time: Selecting the Right Scales ............................................................................................ 36 Complexity: More Isn’t Always Better .................................................................................................... 37 Embracing Uncertainty ............................................................................................................................ 38 3. ASSESSING THE COMPONENTS OF VULNERABILITY ................................................................ 39 Assessing Sensitivity ............................................................................................................................... 39 Assessing Exposure ................................................................................................................................. 44 Assessing Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................... 48 4. PEERING INTO THE FUTURE: CLIMATE AND ECOLOGICAL MODELS ..................................... 51 Climate Models ........................................................................................................................................ 51 Ecological Response Models ................................................................................................................... 59 5. ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTY IN VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS ......................................... 67 The Language of Uncertainty .................................................................................................................. 68 Assessing and Understanding Uncertainty............................................................................................... 70 6. USING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT RESULTS ........................................................................ 73 Vulnerability Assessment Outputs ........................................................................................................... 73 Scanning the Conservation Horizon Page 1 Informing Existing Planning Efforts ........................................................................................................ 74 Dealing with Uncertainty in Adaptation Planning .................................................................................... 77 Looking Ahead ......................................................................................................................................... 80 7. CASE STUDIES ....................................................................................................................................... 81 Case Study 1. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Species in Nevada ..................... 83 Case Study 2. U.S. EPA’s Threatened and Endangered (T&E) Species Vulnerability Framework ......... 90 Case Study 3. Species Vulnerability Assessment for the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico ................... 96 Case Study 4. Vulnerability of Massachusetts Fish and Wildlife Habitats to Climate Change .............. 104 Case Study 5. Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay................................................... 115 Case Study 6. An Integrated Climate Change Assessment Framework in the Four Corners Region ..... 123 Case Study 7. Pacific Northwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ........................................ 129 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................................ 135 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT RESOURCES .............................................. 138 LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................................................... 141 Scanning the Conservation Horizon Page 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Rapid climate change is the defining conservation issue of our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, from drowned coastal marshes and drying prairie potholes to melting glaciers. These climate-driven changes will profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish and wildlife resources and the habitats on which they depend. Indeed, preparing for and coping with the effects of climate change—an endeavor referred to as climate change adaptation—is emerging as the overarching framework for conservation and natural resource management. Developing and implementing effective adaptation strategies requires an understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on our natural world. To provide the best possible chance for conserving species and ecosystems in a rapidly changing climate, it is essential that managers have the ability to both identify what we need to do differently in the future, as well as which existing strategies and activities continue to make sense from a climate adaptation perspective. Vulnerability assessments are a key tool for informing adaptation planning and enabling resource managers to make such judgments. Scanning the Conservation Horizon is designed to assist fish and wildlife managers and other conservation and resource professionals to better plan, execute, and interpret climate change vulnerability assessments. Climate change vulnerability assessments provide two essential contributions to adaptation planning. Specifically, they help in: • Identifying which species or systems are likely to be most strongly affected by projected changes; and • Understanding why these resources are likely to be vulnerable, including the interaction between climate shifts and existing stressors. Determining which resources are most vulnerable enables managers to better set priorities for conservation action, while understanding why they are vulnerable provides a basis for developing appropriate management and conservation responses. Vulnerability to climate change, as the term is used in this guide, has three principle components: sensitivity, exposure , and adaptive capacity . Vulnerability assessments are, therefore, structured around assessments of these distinct components. Sensitivity generally refers to innate characteristics of a species or system and considers tolerance to changes in such things as temperature, humidity, phenology, or fire. Exposure, in contrast, refers to extrinsic factors, focusing on the character, magnitude, and rate of change the species or system is likely to experience. Adaptive capacity addresses the ability of a species or system to accommodate or cope with climate change impacts with minimal disruption. Although climate change vulnerability assessments can be applied to human infrastructure as well as natural systems, our focus here Is on approaches designed to support wildlife Scanning the Conservation Horizon Page 3 Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change Determine objectives and scope • Identify audience, user requirements,