December 2014 Jennifer Cafarella MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 25 JABHAT AL-NUSRA IN SYRIA AN ISLAMIC EMIRATE FOR AL-QAEDA Cover: Members of al Qaeda’s Nusra Front drive in a convoy as they tour villages, which they said they have seized control of from Syrian rebel factions, in the southern countryside of Idlib, December 2, 2014. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi. Reproduced with permission. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. ©2014 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2014 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, DC 20036 www.understandingwar.org Jennifer Cafarella MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 25 JABHAT AL-NUSRA IN SYRIA AN ISLAMIC EMIRATE FOR AL-QAEDA ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jennifer Cafarella is a Syria Analyst and Evans Hanson Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. In her research, she focuses on the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), and Syrian rebel groups. She is the author of “ISIS Works to Merge its Northern Front across Iraq and Syria,” “Local Dynamics Shift in Response to U.S.-Led Airstrikes in Syria,” and “Peace-talks between the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria.” In addition, she oversees the research for and production of weekly Syria Update maps and periodic Syria Control of Terrain maps. Ms. Cafarella has dealt extensively with the media acting as a resource for NPR’s “All Things Considered,” the Voice of America, the BBC, The New York Times, CNN, Time, USA Today, and others. This is her first full length report. Ms. Cafarella is a graduate of ISW’s Hertog War Studies Program and is the Institute’s first Evans Hanson Fellow. This Fellowship is for outstanding alumni of the War Studies Program and seeks to help build the next generation of national security leaders. She received her BA from the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities in Global Studies with a focus on the Middle East. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My sincere thanks to Dr. Kimberly Kagan, Jessica Lewis McFate, and Aaron Reese for their invaluable mentorship and brilliant analytical insight. Special thanks as well to the ISW Syria team and to Valerie Syzbala, upon whose initial research this paper was founded. Finally, a big thank you to Nichole Dicharry for outstanding graphics work, John Lawrence, and the entire ISW operations team, without whom this report would not have been possible. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research,trusted analysis, and innovative education. ISW is committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. ABOUT OUR TECHNOLOGY PARTNERS ISW believes superior strategic insight derives from a fusion of traditional social science research and innovative technological methods. ISW recognizes that the analyst of the future must be able to process a wide variety of information, ranging from personal interviews and historical artifacts to high volume structured data. ISW thanks its technology partners, Palantir Technologies and Praescient Analytics, for their support in this innovative endeavor. In particular, their technology and implementation assistance has supported creating many ISW maps and graphics. Praescient Analytics is a Veteran Owned Small Business based in Alexandria, Virginia. Our aim is to revolutionize how the world understands information by empowering our customers with the latest analytic tools and methodologies. Currently, Praescient provides several critical services to our government and commercial clients: training, embedded analysis, platform integration, and product customization. Palantir Technologies is working to radically change how groups analyze information. We currently offer a suite of software applications for integrating, visualizing and analyzing the world’s information. We support many kinds of data including structured, unstructured, relational, temporal and geospatial. TABLE OF CONTENTS MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 25 | JABHAT AL-NUSRA IN SYRIA | JENNIFER CAFARELLA| DECEMBER 2014 GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS ........................................................................... 07 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. 08 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 11 IDEOLOGY AND GRANDY STRATEGY ............................................................ 12 JN STRATEGY FOR SYRIA ............................................................................ 13 PENETRATION INTO REBEL RANKS .............................................................. 15 JN’s Complex Networked Structure .......................................................... 16 Tier 1 ........................................................................................................ 17 Tier 2 ........................................................................................................ 19 Tier 3 ........................................................................................................ 19 JN Influence on Rebel Behavior ................................................................ 20 JN’S SPECIAL FORCES MODEL ..................................................................... 22 Structure and Composition ....................................................................... 22 JN TACTICS, TECHNIQUES, AND PROCEDURES ............................................ 23 Recruitment .............................................................................................. 24 Training .................................................................................................... 25 JABHAT AL-NUSRA’S MILITARY CAMPAIGN SINCE AUGUST 2013.................. 27 Idlib and Hama ......................................................................................... 29 Failed attempt to push into NW Hama ....................................................... 31 JN carves out direct control in Idlib .......................................................... 32 Homs and Damascus ................................................................................ 32 Aleppo ...................................................................................................... 34 Dera‘a ...................................................................................................... 36 JN’S GOVERNANCE STRATEGY ..................................................................... 37 Aleppo Shari‘a Commission ...................................................................... 38 Eastern Shari‘a Committee ....................................................................... 39 An interim shift in JN’s governance in Syria .............................................. 41 JN’S FUTURE CALCULUS .............................................................................. 41 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................... 43 APPENDIX: JABHAT AL-NUSRA TIMELINE OF EVENTS ................................. 46 NOTES .......................................................................................................... 47 IMAGE FOOTNOTES ...................................................................................... 65 MAPS & GRAPHICS FIGURE 1. SYRIA OVERVIEW ......................................................................... 10 FIGURE 2. JN MEMBER ADMINISTERS POLIO VACCINATION ......................... 14 FIGURE 3. JN MEMBER PREPARES DA‘WA MATERIALS ................................. 14 FIGURE 4. AL-FAROOQ INSTITUTE FOR ISLAMIC STUDIES ........................... 15 FIGURE 5. JABHAT AL-NUSRA REBEL ALLIES: DECEMBER 2014 .................. 18 FIGURE 6. GEOGRAPHICAL DISPERSION OF JABHAT AL-NUSRA AND ALLIED FORCES ................................................................... 20 FIGURE 7. ELECTRONIC TECHNICAL OFFICE PREPARES ............................. COMMUNICATIONS..... ................................................................. 22 FIGURE 8. TOP JN SHARI‘A OFFCIAL MUHAJIR ............................................ 23 FIGURE 9. JN COMMANDER USING SAND TABLE .......................................... 23 FIGURE 10. JN FIGHTER RECEIVING RADIO FREQUENCIES .......................... 24 FIGURE 11. JN WEAPONS MANUFACTURE MANUAL ...................................... 24 FIGURE 12. CHILD TRAINING CAMP .............................................................. 26 FIGURE 13. ALAWITE CLERIC BADR GHAZAL’S “SENTENCING” .................... 26 FIGURE 14. CONTROL IN SYRIA: DECEMBER 2014 ........................................ 27 FIGURE 15. KEY JABHAT AL-NUSRA MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS IN ............. NORTHERN SYRIA SINCE AUGUST 2013 ................................... 28 FIGURE 16. KEY JABHAT AL-NUSRA MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS IN ............. SOUTHERN SYRIA SINCE AUGUST 2013 .................................... 29 FIGURE 17. JN FIGHTERS MASS IN PREPARATION FOR ATTACK ................... 31 FIGURE 18. JN FIGHTERS PREPARING FOR MISSION IN HOMS ....................