The University of San Francisco USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center Master's Projects and Capstones Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects Spring 5-17-2020 An Integrated Resource Plan for Arizona Public Service Electric (APS) Irene Boghdadi University of San Francisco, [email protected] Randy Chiu University of San Francisco, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone Part of the Energy Systems Commons, and the Power and Energy Commons Recommended Citation Boghdadi, Irene and Chiu, Randy, "An Integrated Resource Plan for Arizona Public Service Electric (APS)" (2020). Master's Projects and Capstones. 1042. https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone/1042 This Project/Capstone is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, Capstones and Projects at USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Projects and Capstones by an authorized administrator of USF Scholarship: a digital repository @ Gleeson Library | Geschke Center. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Image credit: www.aps.com An Integrated Resource Plan for Arizona Public Service Electric (APS) A pathway to achieving 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2050 Master’s Capstone Project Master of Science in Energy Systems Management Authors: Irene Boghdadi, Randy Chiu Supervisor: Professor James H. Williams University of San Francisco (USF) May 17th, 2020 1 We would like to dedicate this work to… Our parents James and Betty Chiu, Sherif Boghdadi and Viviane Hechema, and families Jennifer, Jamie, Taylor, and Jeff Chiu who have been the best support system. Our friends and colleagues who generously shared their time and knowledge and Dr. Ahmed Huzayyin, Dr. Ahmad Gaber and Shadi Gaber who have been sources of apprenticeship, guidance, and wisdom. Our teachers and mentors Prof. James H. Williams and Prof. Maggie Winslow and IRP advisor Ryan Jones, as well as our teaching assistants Rawley Loken and Jen Chen. 2 CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Overview of Arizona Public Service Company ............................................................... 10 1.2.1 Existing System ...................................................................................................... 10 1.2.2 Demand ................................................................................................................. 10 1.2.3 Supply .................................................................................................................... 11 1.3 Arizona’s Regulatory and Policy Environment .............................................................. 12 1.3.1 Local and State ...................................................................................................... 12 1.3.2 Federal................................................................................................................... 13 1.4 Resource Needs Assessment ........................................................................................ 14 2 Development of the Scenarios ....................................................................................... 15 2.1 Key Considerations ....................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Metrics .......................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Descriptions .................................................................................................................. 17 2.3.1 Business-as-Usual (BAU) ........................................................................................ 17 2.3.2 100 Percent Carbon-free Energy (Clean100) ......................................................... 17 2.3.3 100 Percent Renewable Energy (RE100) ................................................................ 17 3 Results ........................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Capacity ........................................................................................................................ 18 3.2 Energy Generation and Sales ........................................................................................ 20 3.3 Emissions ...................................................................................................................... 23 3.4 System Cost .................................................................................................................. 24 4 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 27 4.1 Inputs ............................................................................................................................ 27 4.1.1 Techno-economic Data .......................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 Load Data .............................................................................................................. 28 4.2 Capacity Expansion Model ............................................................................................ 28 4.3 Outputs ......................................................................................................................... 29 4.4 Model Limitations ......................................................................................................... 29 3 5 Gas Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................................. 30 5.1 Portfolio Dependency on Gas ....................................................................................... 30 5.2 SNG Price Sensitivity Analysis ....................................................................................... 31 6 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................... 33 References............................................................................................................................. 34 7 Appendices .................................................................................................................... 37 7.1 Appendix I: Key Scenario Summary for All Scenarios 2020 and 2050 ........................... 37 7.2 Appendix II: Installed Capacity for All Modeled Years .................................................. 38 7.3 Appendix III: Net Generation for All Modeled Years ..................................................... 39 7.4 Appendix IV: Techno-economic Data in All Modeled Years .......................................... 40 4 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Summary of the scenarios ............................................................................................... 8 Table 2. Key performance indicators for all scenarios in 2050 and the reference case in 2020. ... 8 Table 3. Installed capacity by resource type for all scenarios in 2020 and 2050. ........................ 19 Table 4. Energy generation per resource type in the BAU, Clean100, and RE100 scenarios in 2020 and 2050. ........................................................................................................................... 21 Table 5. System costs for all scenarios in 2020 and 2050. The system cost, and hence the revenue required, is the sum of the generation costs (fixed and variable), transmission, and distribution costs. ....................................................................................................................... 26 Table 6. Summary of gas use metrics for all scenarios in 2050 and Reference scenario in 2020. 30 Table 7. Total system costs and retail rates at different SNG price levels. .................................. 32 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Snapshot of APS’s Retail Electric Service Territory, locations of its major power plants and principle transmission lines. Source: 2017 APS IRP. ............................................................. 10 Figure 2. APS energy generation mix as calculated by the authors based on APS’s IRP. ............. 11 Figure 3. Forecasted loads and resources up to 2050. There is a resource gap of about 9,000 MW. ............................................................................................................................................ 14 Figure 4 Installed capacity per resource type in the BAU, Clean100, and RE100 scenarios in 2020 and 2050. .................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 5. Energy generation per resource type in the BAU, Clean100, and RE100 scenarios in 2020 and 2050. ........................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 6. Month-hour average dispatch by resource in 2050 in the Clean100 scenario.............. 22 Figure 7. Month-hour average dispatch by resource in 2050 in the RE100 scenario. ................. 23 Figure 8. Annual emissions for all three scenarios