___________________________________________________________________________ 2018/TEL58/DSG/WKSP1/003 Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and the Early Warning Systems for Alerting the Population in Western Balkan Countries Submitted by: Alfa BK University Workshop on Earthquakes and Waterfloods Monitoring System with the Application of the Internet of Things Taipei, Chinese Taipei 1 October 2018 FLOOD RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES AND THE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR ALERTING THE POPULATION IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES Emeritus prof. dr Larisa Jovanović ALFA BK University, Belgrade, Serbia ECOLOGICA Society, Belgrade, Serbia Abstract. The paper deals with flood risk reduction and methods of early flood warning. Flooding is one of most frequent and damaging type of natural disasters in Balkan countries. There is high probability that the impact of floods in Balkans will increase due to climate change. The watercourse arrangement includes the construction and maintenance of regulating facilities for watercourse regulation and the execution of works on maintaining the stability of the shore and riverbeds and providing water, ice and water throughput for the purpose of reducing the risk of flooding. Protection against harmful effects of water includes measures and works for protection against floods by external and internal waters, floods caused by ice barriers and floods of erosion and torrents. Since flood events are becoming more frequent and more intense, with the constant increase of exposure of people and goods due to intensive occupation of water-to-water areas, the need for increasing the level of protection of these areas is growing, so it is necessary to constantly improve and upgrade existing flood protection facilities and systems. Future research on floods should be focused on improving preparedness and response during a flood crisis, mainly warning and monitoring systems, also through the assessment of mitigation and prevention measures. Key words: flood, risk reduction, strategies, early warning, forecasting, modelling, Balkan countries. Introduction Balkan is one of the most dynamic and complex system in the world. It is also extremely fragile and sensitive to the effects of climate change. Climate change is gradually increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and natural disasters in the region, which has led to higher levels of risk for population in Balkan countries. The paper deals with strategies of flood risk reduction and methods of early flood warning. The EU Flood Directive and management of flood risks in Western Balkan In order to avoid and reduce the adverse effects of floods, the European Parliament and Council adopted Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks. Given that the causes and consequences of flood vary across the countries and regions, the flood risk management plans for Western Balkan should consider the specific characteristics of areas they cover and provide for tailored solutions according to the needs and priorities of those areas, whilst ensuring relevant coordination within river basin districts and promoting the achievement of environmental objectives laid down in Community legislation. The Directive states that flood risk management plans should focus on prediction, prevention, protection and preparedness. The basis for priority setting and further technical, financial and political decisions regarding flood risk management is the monitoring of meteorological and hydrological data and development of flood risk maps showing possible adverse consequences associated with different flood scenarios, including information on potential sources of environmental pollution as a consequence of flooding. The legal framework of flood management in all countries of Western Balkan is aligned with the EU Flood Directive. Directive envisages Civil Protection for the purpose of assisting the population and improving the situation in crisis situations. 1 History of significant floods in the Western Balkans countries The torrential rains and catastrophic floods that raged in the spring 2014 through parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia were unprecedented in the historical record of the region, going back 120 years. In just a few days, some areas received an amount of rain equivalent to one third of their annual total. But extreme weather events like this one are something communities may have to contend with more and more because of global warming impacts. Figure 1. Catastrophic floods in Balkan countries (B&H), May 2014 Table 1. Major flood events in the WB, 2010-1015 Flood impact Date Affected areas, municipalities Extent of damage rating Albania 10,000 hectares flooded, over 5,000 Jan. 2010 Shkodra, Lezhë and Durrës. people evacuated, 2,200 houses severe damaged Nov-Dec. Drin and Mati River, Deltas Ulza and 15,000 people evacuated, 6,000 km2 severe 2010 Shkopeti reservoirs land flooded, 4,800 houses flooded 11,000 people evacuated, 3 people Nov. 2014 Tirana, Lezhë, Shkodër and Fier, severe died, 7500 houses damaged Vlora and Fier, Berat, Elbasan and Feb. 2015 Gjirokaster; Rivers Vjosa, Devoll, Osu, 42,000 people affected severe Seman Bosnia and Herzegovina Drina River catchment, Municipalities of Bosanska Krupa, Domaljevac-Šamac, Orašje, Tuzla, Maglaj, Goražde, Foča- 20,000 people affected, 5,000 Ustikolina, Pale-Prača, Ravno, Čitluk, Dec. 2010 houses flooded, 6,000 people severe Čapljina, Stolac, Mostar, Trnovo, Ilidža, evacuated Novi Grad, Tomislavgrad, Drvar, Trebinje, Bileća, Nevesinje, Foča, Novo Goražde, Bratunac, Zvornik, Bijeljina 2 Nearly 15% of GDP lost, 13,200 Sava tributaries: Una, Sana, Vrbas, km2 flooded, over 1 million people May 2014 Vrbanja, Bosna and Drina and Sava River extreme in 46 municipalities affected, 25 at Raca lives lost Northern and Western Bosnia and Herzegovina. All areas along the Sava, Aug. 2014 Sava tributaries: Una, Vrbas, Stira; Banja Some 200 homes evacuated severe Luka, Gracanica, Tuzla, Foča, Visegrad, Zvornik, Zepce, Lukavac, Zenica Kosovo Municipalities of Klina/ Klina, Skenderaj/Srbica, Peja/Pec, Istog/ Istok, Kamenice/Kamenica, Gjakova/Djakovica, Flash floods several towns flooded. March 2013 moderate and Mitrovice/Mitrovica. Water supply shortages Rivers Drini I Bardhe, Klina, Bistrica and Lushta Macedonia River Kojnarka, Kumanovo, Shtip, Sveti Approximately 6,000 people Feb. 2013 Nikole, Strumica, Valandovo, Ohrid, severe affected Probishtip and Kochani Eastern region: River Crna - Region of Jan-Feb. 2015 Bitola, Municipalities of Mogila, Novaci Over 100,000 people affected severe and Bitola Feb. 2015 Southern and central parts of the country 100,000 people affected severe Municipalities of Kavadarci, Prilep and March 2015 Kumanovo, Northern and central parts of Agricultural lands affected moderate the Country Montenegro Whole of Montenegro to various extents Rivers Lim, Tara, Moraca, Drina 21 municipalities affected, 1.49% of Dec. 2010 severe tributaries and Bojana; Lakes Skadar, Piva GDP equalling to MEUR 43 lost and in Niksic July 2014 Central and South-Montenegro Landslides, roads blocked moderate Serbia Eastern and central parts of Serbia: Zajecar, Aleksinac, Pozega and Knjazevac, 1,306 households damaged, Feb. 2010 Negotin, Svrljig, Boljevac; Merosina, severe more than 3,150 people affected Doljevac, Koceljeva, Ub, Lajkovac, Ljig, Vladimirci, Zitoradja, Priboj and Prijepolje 135 households affected, June 2010 Kolubara moderate over 2000 ha flooded Pčinja District of southern Serbia Approximately 3,500 people Feb. 2013 severe Bujanovac, Preševo, Trgovište affected, 181 families evacuated Western, South-western, Central and EUR 1,525 million lost equal to Eastern Serbia: Sava, Tamnava, Kolubara, about 3% of the GDP, 9,100 km2 May 2014 Jadar, Zapadna Morava, Velika Morava, and 38 municipalities/cities extreme Mlava and Pek at Beli Brod on the affected, 1.6 million people tributary river Kolubara - Obrenovac affected, 51 lives lost Central Serbia, municipalities of Kostolac July 2014 Power plant shot down moderate and Pozarevac, Topola Western Serbia, River Stira, Cities of Aug. 2014 100 homes flooded moderate Loznica, Banja Koviljaca Eastern Serbia municipalities of Kladovo, Approximately 7,000 people Sep. 2014 severe Majdanpek and Negotin affected Source:Various: Danube River Basin District: flood events in 2010 (ICPDR flood report 2010), FloodList, ReliefWeb, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, http://www.telegraf.rs/vesti/1231030-posle-uzasa-u-istocnoj-srbiji-steta-od-poplava-5-miliona-evra 3 Strategy of Flood Risk Reduction in Serbia In order to improve water management policy and support further harmonization with requirements of the relevant legal acquis of the EU it is necessary to make a number of steps in the legislative framework of the Balkan countries. In Republic of Serbia the Law on Waters was amended in 2016, in which transposition provisions of the Water Directives have been transposed in it. In 2017, the Government of the Republic of Serbia adopted the Strategy for Water Management in RS up to 2034. On the basis of the Strategy, sector reforms will be implemented in order to achieve the necessary measures in water management. Structural and nonstructural measures Structural measures (construction of flood defenses such as riverbed regulation and the rehabilitation or construction of dikes) were the most prevalent measures in Serbia and B&H in the previous period. Structural measures identified as “non-regret” in the Action Plan implemented through